Sometimes it’s nearly impossible to do both.
So the obvious answer is to try to draft as many Packers as possible so you don’t have to worry about splitting your allegiances on Sundays. But you don’t want to overdraft Aaron Rodgers or Randall Cobb and jeopardize your fantasy team’s success, either. So I compiled a fairly comprehensive list of where Packers are going in early-season drafts.
This average draft position (ADP) data isn’t made from mock drafts either. It’s all from real drafts that have taken place at the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC), the largest high-stakes fantasy contest in the world. Owners will pony up $1,650 per team for the FFPC Main Event in September to try and win the $250,000 grand prize, so these drafts are as serious as they come.
The data is based on 12-team, 20-round draft, point-per-reception (PPR) leagues that require a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, two flex players (running backs, wide receivers and tight ends), one kicker and one defense/special teams units (plus in the FFPC, tight ends get 1.5 points for every catch making them more valuable).
We are splitting this into two articles. This first will look at quarterbacks, running backs and kickers. The next – to be published next week – will analyze the wide receivers and tight ends.
Without further ado, here are how the Packers are shaping up for 2013 fantasy football drafts:
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, ADP: 4.07 (the seventh pick of the fourth round)
Granted, the FFPC players have historically waited on quarterbacks, so you probably wouldn’t be able to get Rodgers in the mid-fourth round of your “basement league,” but he’s still the first quarterback going off the board. So if you must draft Rodgers, make sure you get him in the late third or early fourth round.
Running back Eddie Lacy, ADP: 6.07 (the seventh pick of the sixth round)
Lacy is being drafted as a third running back, or in the case of teams who went pass-catcher happy with their early picks, a second running back. The ‘Bama Bruiser is between the 20th and 25th running back off the board, and usually behind fellow rookies Le’Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Montee Ball of the Denver Broncos.
Running back Johnathan Franklin, ADP: 11.08 (the eighth pick of the eleventh round)
Clearly fantasy owners are believing that Lacy is the running back to own in the Packers’ backfield despite his durability issues. You can select Franklin as Lacy’s “handcuff” about five rounds after you take Lacy. That’s not bad value considering you only have to use a tenth- or eleventh-rounder to solidify what should be a much improved Green Bay ground game on your fantasy team.
Running back DuJuan Harris, ADP: 17.03 (the third pick of 17th round)
The forgotten man in the Packers backfield, Harris is still being selected as a late-round lottery ticket type. If Lacy does break down, coach Mike McCarthy will probably not put the entire load on Franklin. And there are a lot of players and scouts out there right now who believe Harris made quite an impression on the coaching staff last year with his late season surge. He may have a role in this offense regardless of what Lacy and Franklin do.
Kicker Mason Crosby, ADP: 20.09 (the ninth pick of the 20th round)
Crosby’s poor 2012 campaign almost has him off this board. In fact, he wasn’t even taken in some drafts at all. When coupled with the fact that Green Bay brought in Giorgio Tavecchio to compete with Crosby for the kicking job, it’s perhaps best to stay away from the kicking situation in Green Bay altogether if you’re drafting now, no matter how badly you want to stock your roster with Packers.
Next week, I’ll take a look at the receivers and tight ends and tell you how far James Jones has moved up the draft boards since last season.