Jason Hirschhorn

To the wonderful readers of Lombardi Ave,

As Ray alluded to earlier, I am stepping down from Lombardi Ave in order to pursue a great opportunity elsewhere. If you’re one of many fantastic people who have reached out to me on twitter, you know where I’ll be writing going forward. While this is a very exciting time for me, it’s also a bittersweet one. Since joining Lombardi Ave, I’ve not only had the privilege of working with the site’s superb writers, but I’ve also gotten to know so many of you. Your kind words and encouragement are what keep writers like me going. I’m forever grateful for it.

When Ray brought me onto Lombardi Ave, the site was in a state of flux. Under his leadership and with the help of the many talented writers, the site has become one of the truly unique and insightful Packers resources on the Web. While all too many sports websites offer bland opinions from faceless personalities, Lombardi Ave provides strong, detailed analysis from its litany of impressive authors. I consider all of them friends.

So while I’m leaving the great community at Lombardi Ave, I’ll always look back on my time here with enormous pride. I’ll never forget how Ray graciously gave this former music blogger a chance to write about his favorite team. I’ll never forget the camaraderie among the writers. And most of all, I’ll never forget the support so many of you have given me.

I may be heading out into the world, but Lombardi Ave will always be my home.

Sincerely,

Jason Hirschhorn

Editor’s note: It’s always difficult to say goodbye to people you grow to know and trust. For about a year or so, I struggled mostly by myself trying to get Lombardi Ave up and running. It was a difficult and lonely task. I had advertised for, and gotten some folks who would sign on as authors, post a few times and then grow disinterested. That was until last fall when the stars must have been aligned. I placed a call for authors on the site and like John Madden would say, BOOM!, about a half dozen responded. Jason was one of the first. His talents were clear – his love of the Packers, his ability to tell a great story, and his pride in providing a strong opinion set him apart. I’ve always told the writers on our great site that I wanted posts that readers won’t find anywhere else on the Web. Jason delivered … time and again. We will miss him, but will be reading his continued coverage of the Packers over at Acme Packing Company – another great Packers site. Our loss is their gain. So, I give a public thank you to Jason and wish him the best. Our door is always open here at Lombardi Ave. GO! PACK! GO!

Thank you, Jason. RTR

Clemson Tigers wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (6) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the first half of the Chick-fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome.Could he be the Packers’ first round selection in this month’s draft? Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports

The third to last edition of the FanSided 2013 NFL Mock Draft has been released.

The fine folks over at FanSided.com do a new mock draft every week right up until the actual draft in April, and we at LombardiAve.com have plenty of offseason information to pass along to our readers. Many of the players we’ve mentioned in previous mock draft posts are making their final impressions on NFL teams, and we’ll get a good opportunity to eyeball them once again and evaluate their performance.

Draft positions have been set. Barring a trade, the Green Bay Packers will make their first selection with the 26^th pick.

According to FanSided, with the 26^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Terron Armstead, Offensive Tackle, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Analysis: While much of the talk is about Florida State’s athletic offensive tackle Menelik Watson, Armstead is flying up boards and could be a surprise pick in the first round thanks to his unbelievable performances at the combine and Pro Day. Armstead’s upside is unbelievable and he should find a home in the top 40 picks if the run starts early enough.

To understand where this pick goes wrong, let’s travel back to 2010. That’s the year Maryland offensive tackle Bruce Campbell put on a show at the combine. Campbell shot up through mock drafts following his 4.85 second 40-yard dash and 34 reps on the bench. The Oakland Raider jokes were endless.

The problem for Campbell, as it very well could be for Armstead, is his tape didn’t match his workout hype. For offensive linemen, having great speed and upper body strength doesn’t mean as much as lower body strength, technique, and the ability to lower one’s center of gravity by bending. NFL teams understand this, which is why Campbell remained on the board until the fourth round. (He was drafted by Oakland though – Al Davis was predictable and bad his last few years).

Similarly, Armstead’s tape doesn’t match his workout hype. He struggled sustaining blocks and seemed lost when reaching the second level. Armstead also doesn’t exploit his athletic advantages against finesse rushers. It’s unlikely that Armstead will be able to start for a few years, and that’s if he develops proper technique. Accordingly, this isn’t a direction I expect the Packers to go.

Syracuse Orange offensive tackle Justin Pugh (67) during the third quarter against the Temple Owls at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

If the Packers are to draft an offensive tackle, and the surefire first-rounders like D.J. Fluker are off the board, a more interesting prospect is Justin Pugh of Syracuse. Pugh has been projected by some as a guard due to his height (6-4) and arm length (32 inches), but Pugh possesses the elite skills and experience teams look for in left tackles. Pugh became the starting left tackle his freshman year, and held the position for three years. Pugh came out with a year of eligibility left, but with all the snaps he has under his belt that shouldn’t be a problem. Pugh compares well to former All-Pro Brad Hopkins, a 13-year starter who overcame his physical “limitations.”

 Clemson Tigers wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (6) catches a touchdown pass. Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Another interesting player that may be settling into the back of the first round is Clemson wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins is a shifty, well-built receiver with very good football speed and a knack for coming down with the ball. While Green Bay has a deep receiving group, James Jones is in the last year of his deal. Like Jones, Hopkins uses his strength and change of direction to get open, especially in the red zone.

Hopkins hauled in 18 touchdowns his senior year at Clemson, more than most receivers catch in their entire college career. While it’s unlikely that Hopkins will be able to reproduce that kind of scoring, he should be able to break many big plays. His senior year, he led Clemson with 17.1 yards per catch.

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Eddie Lacy (42) carries the ball past Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback KeiVarae Russell. Eileen Blass-USA TODAY Sports

The final prospect that bears mentioning is running back Eddie Lacy. Throughout the draft process, I’ve held to my belief that there’s no running back worthy of a first round selection.

That hasn’t changed.

So why bring up Lacy? The Alabama product is finally set to work out for NFL teams later this week. The big concern with Lacy is that he might be too similar to former college teammate Mark Ingram in that his speed and change of direction are well below elite and will cause problems on the next level. If Lacy shows well in the speed drills, some team may pick him late in the first. I still suspect Green Bay won’t be that team, but if we’ve learned anything from Ted Thompson’s drafts it’s that anything’s possible.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

The April Fools edition of the FanSided 2013 NFL Mock Draft has been released.

The fine folks over at FanSided.com do a new mock draft every week right up until the actual draft in April, and we at LombardiAve.com have plenty of offseason information to pass along to our readers. Many of the players we’ve mentioned in previous mock draft posts are making their final impressions on NFL teams, and we’ll get a good opportunity to eyeball them once again and evaluate their performance.

Draft positions have been set. Barring a trade, the Green Bay Packers will make their first selection with the 26^th pick.

Jan 7, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish tight end Tyler Eifert (80) catches a pass defended by Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Dee Milliner (28) during the first half of the 2013 BCS Championship game at Sun Life Stadium. Elfert was ruled out of bounds on the play. Mandatory Credit: Eileen Blass-USA TODAY Sports

According to FanSided, with the 26^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Notre Dame

Analysis: Green Bay needs help up front, but another way to help Aaron Rodgers would be to get him a capable tight end for the future. Jermichael Finely is sticking around for now it seems, but he’s not a long term option anymore as animosity grows. Eifert gives Rodgers his Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, and that makes him even more dangerous than he was before. Menelik Watson and other offensive lineman will be available on the second day for the Packers to flirt with, but Eifert won’t be and if they want to help Rodgers, they’ll get him a giant tight end.

Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley (88) catches a touchdown pass while being defended by San Diego Chargers safety Steve Gregory (28) during the first quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

This mock draft makes a lot of assumptions about the Packers’ relationship with Jermichael Finley. Primarily, it assumes that Finley and the Packers have become acrimonious towards one another.

While fans may be growing more spiteful toward Finley, there’s not enough evidence to suggest such is the case with the front office. Such an argument is even harder to make when the deadline for Finley’s roster bonus came and passed without any real chance of a renegotiation or release.

If fans can put down their pitchforks for a minute, they’d realize what good news this is. After Randall Cobb, Finley was the Packers’ best pass catcher the second half of the season, catching 33 passes for 402 yards while dropping zero balls. With Greg Jennings leaving via free agency, Finley should see his usage spike.

That doesn’t necessarily mean drafting a tight end early is a bad move for the Packers, however. After all, Finley’s contract expires following the 2013 season. Should Finley have a big year, it’s possible he’ll have priced himself out of Green Bay.

Alternatively, if Finley has a bad year or is injured, Packers GM Ted Thompson could choose to let the tight end walk. In either of those scenarios, a replacement would be needed. The in-house options – D.J. Williams and Andrew Quarless – have shown promise, yet neither has provided bankable production in the passing game so far. Thus, it’s easy to see where a talented rookie tight end might find a niche with Green Bay.

San Diego State Aztecs tight end Gavin Escobar (88) catches a 29 yard pass while defended by Army Black Knights defensive back Lyle Beloney (15) during the first quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

That said, I don’t think Tyler Eifert is that guy. His athleticism, while more than average, doesn’t stand out the way a first round tight end should. His best attribute is his ability to high point the ball on his jumps, but that’s his lone exceptional quality.

Considering that Aaron Rodgers’ passes rarely require fantastic feats of athleticism to bring down, the value of that ability is diminished. More importantly, there are several tight ends of comparable quality who should be on the board much later.

Zach Ertz is a comparable body tight with similar athleticism, and probably would be an ideal target should the Packers trade out of the first round. If the Packers stay in the first round, San Diego State’s Gavin Escobar should still be around at their second pick. Escobar possesses comparable athleticism and college production to Eifert and Ertz, but at a much lower cost.

Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase (2) tries to avoid a tackle by Purdue Boilermakers defensive tackle Kawann Short (93) quarter at Memorial Stadium. Bradley Leeb-USA TODAY Sports

Since we’ve discussed receivers, running backs, safeties, and offensive lineman to death, here are some defensive lineman that might intrigue the Packers.

Kawann Short is an impressive specimen at 6-3, 299 pounds. Because of his long arms, Short batted down 11 passes at Purdue. He also blocked four kicks. What Short mainly gets docked for is his motor, which isn’t always running in top gear.

That’s not uncommon for defensive lineman, and given Short’s production in college that shouldn’t be too much of a worry. His stock is thought to be rising, so he might be gone by 26.

UNC’s Sylvester Williams is another talented but inconsistent lineman who would fit in the Packers’ 3-4. Williams, who played defensive tackle in the Tar Heels’ 4-3, notched six sacks in 2012. The catalyst for that impressive production is his swim move which should translate to the next level. Unfortunately, he’s a one trick pony at this stage of his career. While Williams should develop into a very good player, he may be too much of a project in round one.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive lineman Johnathan Hankins (52) against the Indiana Hoosiers during the 2nd half at Memorial Stadium. Ohio State defeated Indiana 52-49. Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

Finally we come to Ohio State’s Johnathan Hankins. Hankins is one of the true nose tackle prospects in his draft class, and accordingly may be snatched up early. Should he last to Green Bay, Hankins would immediately allow graybeard Ryan Pickett to reduce his snap count. Hankins would also solidify B.J. Raji’s move from nose tackle to 3-4 end. More than anything, Hankins would be a plus defender against the run. With Adrian Peterson not likely to slow down in 2013, adding another beefy defensive lineman could be a wise move.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

August 3, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (12) (left) Graham Harrell (6) (center) and B.J. Coleman (9) (right) are announced to the crowd prior to the family night scrimmage at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

It may seem unconscionable that a team like the Green Bay Packers about to hand out a lifetime contract to a 29-year-old quarterback would turn around and draft another player at his position. However, as we all know, Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson has made far more curious selections before. But why invest another draft pick at a position that is as solidified as any across the league?

It’s the same answers Packers fans always hear: value and depth.

Aug 30, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Graham Harrell (6) during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Chiefs 24-3. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

While Aaron Rodgers has proven to be both incredibly effective and durable, there’s no player with today’s heightened player safety concerns who can be relied upon for a full season. Packers management got a glimpse into what life without Rodgers would be like when the 2011 MVP was temporarily sidelined with an eye injury against the Saints this past season. The dynamic offense fumbled on the first snap with backup Graham Harrell at the helm, nearly causing the game to fall for New Orleans. While it’s unfair to judge Harrell based on one snap, his body of work has left a poor impression. The former Texas Tech standout will need to improve considerably if Green Bay is to remain competitive should Rodgers be sidelined again.

Aug 23, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterbacks Graham Harrell (6) and BJ Coleman (9) and Aaron Rodgers (12) conference on the sideline during the pre-season game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Leifheit-USA TODAY Sports

Harrell isn’t the only in-house option, however. 2012 seventh round selection B.J. Coleman possesses the physical tools you look for in an NFL passer. After spending his rookie season on the practice squad, Coleman is set to go through his first “QB School.” While that sounds promising, it’s important to remember that Coleman never seriously challenged for an active roster spot at any time last offseason, and his small school pedigree suggests he may need another year or two before a spot on the 53 is warranted.

And here is where the 2013 NFL Draft comes in. For teams searching for a franchise quarterback, the talent pool yields more questions than answers. There is a silver lining, however. This draft class contains more quarterbacks with starting potential than any in recent memory.

To be clear, that’s not saying this draft will yield more starters than in years past, but the potential is there. Better still, due to depressed demand for quarterbacks, some quality prospects will be available late on the second day and beyond.

Jan 21, 2013; Fairhope AL, USA; Senior Bowl south squad quarterback Landry Jones of Oklahoma (14) during Senior Bowl practice at Fairhope municipal stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

This is where smart GMs like Ted Thompson earn their salary. It is very unlikely that Green Bay will select a quarterback with either of its first two picks. The draft’s top signal callers, Geno Smith and Matt Barkely, could be off the board and in any case do not represent great value to a team drafting at number 26. Similarly, the second round won’t yield a quarterback worthy of the Packers’ draft pick.

After that point, all bets are off.

Underrated prospects such as Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones, and Matt Scott will all likely be around between the Packers’ third and fifth round selections. Not only does this second to third tier of passers possess the skill set necessary to become starters, but they all come with a much higher floor than most prospects taken in that range.

Should Green Bay snatch up one of these passers (and there’s more than the three I listed), they’d acquire a player capable of beating out Harrell and Coleman for the backup spot.

Dec 23, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) scrambles for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

If you don’t think that’s enough return to warrant the pick, just look to the 2012 Washington Redskins. When starter Robert Griffin III sprained his knee late against Baltimore, rookie Kirk Cousins stepped in and threw the game-tying touchdown pass and two-point conversion. Cousins started the following week with even more impressive results. Not only did these wins represent the difference between winning the NFC East and missing the playoffs, but the Redskins now have a valuable trade chip they can cash in some time in the future. Green Bay would be wise to follow this model. Rodgers, a mobile quarterback in his own right, is just one hit away from missing his next start. Having a backup with starting ability could be a season saver for Green Bay.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

With NFL free agency news slowing to a trickle, it’s time to turn our attention to the next phase of the offseason cycle  - the NFL Draft.

The 2013 NFL Draft is less than a month away, so I called friend and draftnik Greg Trippiedi to help answer five questions about this year’s draft class. Greg has covered the draft for more than a decade, and his work is one of the best reads on the Internet.

Now, without further delay, here’s our Q&A:

What player drafted outside of the top 10 will end up playing like one, ala Clay Matthews?

Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Alec Ogletree does a defensive drill during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn: Alec Ogletree and it’s not close. His off the field troubles have been well documented, but they’re not kind of problems that tend to keep players off the field. His coaches at Georgia say he was never a problem in their locker room, and he has the reputation as a hard worker. While that doesn’t guarantee Ogletree will fix his problems, those types of players usually turn things around. If you judge him based solely on football concerns, Ogletree has top tier athleticism for his position and makes all the plays an elite inside linebacker should. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that in a few years Ogletree is in the same discussion with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman for best at the position.

Southern California Trojans receiver Robert Woods (2) is pursued by Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Chris Salvi (24) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Trippiedi: I’m going to give you two names here, both playing the same position: wide receivers Robert Woods of USC, and Keenan Allen of Cal.  I think Tavon Austin is the best offensive specialist in the draft, but Woods and Allen are top ten level players who will be available after the 16th pick in the first round.  Both are fluid athletes who can score from anywhere on the field, and really high point the football on 50/50 balls despite neither really being viewed as much of a height/weight/speed specimen.  Plus, I feel more comfortable projecting receivers than I do defensive pass rushers. But as a footnote to the last comment, I think the player that reminds me the most of Matthews coming out of USC is Jarvis Jones of Georgia.  And he’s likely to be available when Green Bay picks.

What player drafted in the early rounds is most likely to get a general manager fired?

Jason: Ah, the commemorative “who would Scott Pioli draft?” category. The answer is Mike Glennon. Drafting a quarterback early is nearly always a career defining move for a general manager. Making the wrong choice is a surefire way to earn the selector a one-way ticket out of town. While evaluating any player comes with considerable challenges, quarterbacks present many additional hurdles for general managers.

Senior Bowl north squad quarterback Mike Glennon of North Carolina State (8) throws against the Senior Bowl south squad. Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s where Glennon could end some poor GM’s tenure. With his rocket arm producing high volume yardage and touchdowns, Glennon cuts the figure of the perfect pocket passer. In a year where there is little agreement regarding the best quarterback, Glennon stands out to some teams with his traditional drop back passer capabilities. What seems to get lost in the shuffle is Glennon’s lack of accuracy and passing discipline. Watching his tape, it’s clear Glennon’s never seen a double covered receiver he didn’t like. Glennon is too trusting in his arm strength, leading to 29 interceptions over the past two seasons. Those mistakes will only be magnified in the pros.

Brigham Young Cougars defensive lineman Ziggy Ansah does lineman dirlls during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Greg: Assuming that “whoever Jeff Ireland drafts” isn’t an option here? No? Darn. With the easy answer off the board, it’s worth pointing out that the only picks that are directly responsible for getting GMs fired are quarterbacks, and no quarterback in this class is getting overdrafted.  So this is a very safe draft to be a GM.  There are two buyer beware players at the top of the first round who will be overdrafted on potential: LB Dion Jordan of Oregon, and DE Ziggy Ansah of BYU.  And it’s not that either won’t be good players.  But if I’m oh, I don’t know, Martin Mayhew or Mike Lombardi, I’d feel much better going with Kenny Vaccaro or Dee Milliner than I would with Ansah or Jordan.  Probably buys me an extra year on the job.

Ireland can take whomever he wants to at this point.  I don’t think anything can save him now.

Five years from now, who is the best quarterback from the 2013 draft class?

Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) is pressured by Oregon Ducks linebacker Tyson Coleman (33) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Jason: In five years, I think a lot of people will be wondering how their team let Matt Barkley slip past them. That’s not to say he’ll become the next Aaron Rodgers, because that wouldn’t be reasonable or fair. However, Barkley possesses enough characteristics of a successful quarterback to negate his shortcomings. The arm strength issue is overblown. Barkley has already demonstrated the ability to make the difficult out throws. What’s often overlooked is Barkley’s decision-making. As a freshman, he completed nearly 60 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,735 yards and 7.8 yards per attempt. That’s better than most of this year’s quarterback draft pool. Barkley’s best year was as a junior, where he was extremely efficient (5.6 touchdown to interception ratio, 69.1 percent completion) and extremely productive (3,528 passing yards, 39 touchdowns). That year is closer to the real Matt Barkley than his “down” 2012.

Right now, Barkley is viewed as a late first round selection (though we’ll address this more later). If that holds true, he’ll be given what few highly-drafted quarterbacks ever receive: time. It’s easy to see how a four-year starter who gets a year or two to build up his body and knowledge of the offense could flourish. Hopefully for Barkley, this is how his career plays out.

West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) drops back to pass against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. West Virginia defeated Iowa State 31-24. Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Greg: Geno Smith is the correct answer here, no?  He’s going to get the most chances. Thing is, it’s probably the kind of year where you want to take the field.  Someone is coming out from deep in the draft to make an impact as a starter.

And this isn’t really a prediction, but I think that given the five year time frame you allow here, Landry Jones could disappear off the face of the earth just long enough to re-emerge as a starting quarterback in this league, not dissimilar to what happened to Matt Moore in the 2007 draft.  With a player like Jones, you just have to think that his weaknesses as a college quarterback became so obvious to scouts over the last two seasons that whatever team gets him in camp is probably going to try to stash him away on the roster for a few years, at which point, they’ll be left with a guy who was sacked less than 1 in 40 college pass attempts and completed 63.6 percent of his college passes.

In the meantime, the answer is Geno Smith.

Who is the first quarterback off the board, and which team selects them?

Jason: The answer is Geno Smith, right now. Remember, Matt Barkley didn’t work out at the combine and has yet to have his pro day. While pre-draft work shouldn’t affect draft stock as much as it does, we’ve seen time and time again how a good workout can propel players to higher selections. And when’s the last time a quarterback had a bad pro day workout? Hint: never.

So the question becomes whether a team that runs a west coast-style offense will draft a passer before a team that wants a little more mobility and athleticism from their quarterback does. Oakland is the x-factor, as they’ll legitimately consider Geno Smith at the third pick. If they pass, the next team that might go quarterback is Arizona. The Cardinals are better suited for Barkley’s skill set.

So in the end I give you two scenarios: Smith to Oakland or Barkley to Arizona.

Greg: Geno Smith will be the first quarterback taken, and he’s going between pick no. 2 and pick no. 4 in this draft.  I think Jacksonville has a 30 percent chance of taking him with the second pick.  Oakland has a 45 percent chance of taking him with the third pick, if he’s available.  And then I really don’t think he gets past Philadelphia with the fourth pick.  It’s hard to put a plurality on this because looking at the overall percentages I just used, it breaks down to something like 30-30-30-10 as to where Smith lands, so I’m going to split the difference and say the Raiders will take him at third overall.  I’m 100 percent sure this will happen 30 percent of the time.

The interesting scenarios come if Jacksonville takes Smith at no. 2, because I think that puts Matt Barkley in play for the Raiders at 3.  You can’t have percentages on that event.  Absolutely not.

Finally, put yourself in the shoes of Ted Thompson. Of the players reasonably likely to be available when the Green Bay Packers pick, who would you select and why?

Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman D.J. Fluker does bag drills during Alabama pro day at the Mal M. Moore Athletic Facility. Kelly Lambert-USA TODAY Sports

Jason: This question really is “who is the best player available at the Packers’ selection?” I think there’s a decent chance Alabama right tackle D.J. Fluker is still on the board at 26. If he is, I can’t imagine a better selection. Fluker is a mammoth tackle who created giant holes for three 1,000 yard rushers the past two years. Read that again, three 1,000 yard rushers in two years. Most of those runs came behind Fluker, who is one of the strongest linemen in the draft. With Fluker lining up next to Josh Sitton, the Packers would have the ability to run effectively for the first time in years. This would also free Bryan Bulaga, the team’s best tackle, to move to the left side where he played so well at Iowa. Green Bay could reasonably go from the second most sacked team to the top third of the league.

I also think it’s likely that if no great value exists at 26, Ted Thompson will trade back. The strength of this draft class is in the second and third rounds. Smart teams will be swinging trades to maximize their selections in those rounds.

Akron Zips quarterback Clayton Moore (8) runs during the first quarter as FIU Golden Panthers defensive back Jonathan Cyprien (25) prepares to make the tackle in the game at InfoCision Stadium. Eric P. Mull-USA TODAY Sports

Greg: I think the two players who make the most sense for the Packers (but there’s at least a chance one if not both will not be there) are TE Tyler Eifert of Notre Dame, and FS Jonathan Cyprien of Florida International.  In the modern NFL, you have to be good in the middle of the field.  I think the Packers are perfectly well off at the tight end and safety positions for 2013, but the NFC is getting into an arms race for the kind of talent that can create scoring opportunities (Eifert) and limit scoring opportunities (Cyprien), and I don’t see the Packers being in a position to pass either of these first-rounders if available when they select in round one.

Today’s contributors:

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Greg Trippiedi writes about the Washington Redskins at Redskins Hog Heaven and runs LiveBall Sports which covers current events in sports with a slant toward sports analytics and the business side of the sports world.  His teams go to the playoffs sometimes, which is a refreshing change from most years when they do not win anything. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/GTrippiedi.

Green Bay Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk (50) gestures before the snap against the San Diego Chargers during the first quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers received a moderate surprise when Brad Jones re-signed on Thursday.

Jones, who had spent the better part of 2012 starting alongside A.J. Hawk at inside linebacker, had interest from as many as eight teams. With Green Bay negotiating a pay cut from Hawk and bringing back Robert Francois, it was generally believed Jones would leave for greener pastures. But Packers GM Ted Thompson was patient, and after the “stupid money” dried up, there was no better opportunity for Jones than a return to Green Bay.

Suddenly, the Packers find themselves with a logjam at inside linebacker. Desmond Bishop (hamstring) and D.J. Smith (ACL) return from injured reserve to challenge youngsters Jamari Lattimore and Terrell Manning along with the aforementioned Hawk, Jones, and Francois. Of that group of seven linebackers, five have started for Green Bay before.

As one might expect, there’s considerable uncertainty over which players will end up in the first unit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman (5) looks for a receiver as Green Bay Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop (55) closes in at Lambeau Field. Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Desmond Bishop has been Green Bay’s best inside linebacker when healthy. However, despite tearing his hamstring in the first week of the preseason, Bishop’s injury was severe enough to dissuade the Packers from using their IR return designation on him. Predictably, Bishop’s agent, Blake Baratz, has said Bishop is ahead of schedule in his recovery and should be ready for training camp. That remains to be seen, but Bishop is the team’s best option if he’s available.

Green Bay Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk (50) puts pressure on Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker. Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

A.J. Hawk has been the whipping boy for fans, yet a coaches’ favorite for years now. While his play has never been spectacular, Hawk had one of his best seasons in 2012. It was largely for that reason that the Packers negotiated a cheaper deal rather than giving Hawk his outright release. At the time Hawk’s pay cut hit the newswire, it was assumed that he’d return to his spot on the first unit with the other inside linebackers competing for Bishop’s spot. Now with the speculation that Brad Jones returned for more money, one has to think Hawk’s spot is up for grabs as well.

Green Bay Packers inside linebacker Brad Jones (59) breaks up a pass to Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte. Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

The play of Brad Jones was one of the many pleasant developments of the 2012 season. After shifting between positions several times over his first few years, Jones finally found a home at inside linebacker. There, Jones’s superior coverage ability and athleticism allowed him to excel. After taking over for D.J. Smith following the Houston game, Jones played the most snaps of any linebacker. Most significantly, Jones became the inside linebacker in the nickel defense and was given the radio helmet for play call relay. While Bishop and Hawk are officially ahead on the depth chart, it would surprise me if Jones wasn’t starting come week 1.

Green Bay Packers linebacker D.J. Smith (51). Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The rest of the inside linebackers are muddled together. D.J. Smith, a late round pick due only to his 5-11 stature, was a reliable run defender and solid tackler in his first stint as starter. Smith struggled in coverage, however, and the team greatly improved when Jones took over for him following his ACL tear. Robert Francois has developed into an important special teams member, but hasn’t shown to be exceptional in any one area of defense. He’s a solid backup, but nothing more. Jamari Lattimore’s first two training camps invited several comparisons to a young Desmond Bishop, but like Bishop he won’t become a contributor until he becomes more consistent. Terrell Manning is the wildcard of the group. Ted Thompson traded up in the fifth round to acquire Manning. Had a stomach virus not knocked out his rookie year, Manning might have displaced Jones (who was still adjusting to the position at the time) for the slot behind Smith on the depth chart).

Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

With no clear frontrunners, and at least six players in contention, inside linebacker will host the most interesting position battle of training camp. While two may grab hold of the starting slots and never relinquish them, the specialized talents of the players may result in more situational use of the linebackers. Because of this, Brad Jones (best in coverage, experienced with play call duty) will probably find his way into the starting lineup. If he’s healthy, Bishop is not only the best overall player in the group but also the strongest complement to Jones. That would leave seven-year starter Hawk on the sidelines and perhaps place him on the market, but it’s too early to dig into that scenario.

Given the depth at inside linebacker, it’s not out of the realm of possibility defensive coordinator Dom Capers dusts off the old “Psycho” package to get more of these players on the field. Having the right linebackers on the field could help curtail the read-option which puzzled Green Bay last season.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Eddie Lacy (42) runs with the ball against Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Ishaq Williams (11) during the second half of the 2013 BCS Championship game at Sun Life Stadium. Could Lacy be the Packers’ first round selection in the 2013 NFL Draft?
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports photograph

The Free Agency edition of the FanSided 2013 NFL Mock Draft has been released.

The fine folks over at FanSided.com do a new mock draft every week right up until the actual draft in April, and we at LombardiAve.com have plenty of offseason information to pass along to our readers. Many of the players we’ve mentioned in previous mock draft posts have their Pro Days coming up, and we’ll get a good opportunity to eyeball them once again and evaluate their performance.

Draft positions have been set. Barring a trade, the Green Bay Packers will make their first selection with the 26^th pick.

Alabama Crimson Tide running back Eddie Lacy (42) stiff arms Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Danny Spond (13) during the 2013 BCS Championship game at Sun Life Stadium. Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

According to FanSided, with the 26^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Eddie Lacy, Running Back, Alabama

Analysis: The only knock on the Packers offense over the years has been the utter absence of a running game and the Alabama hammer can fix that right up. Running back is one of the most popular skill positions for fans to pull for and Lacy will help make the Packers offense even more dangerous than it already is. Besides, if you think Alex Green and Cedric Benson are the answer at running back for the Packers, please review the Packers 2012 running game and then check out how well Lacy ran in a devastating offense with the Crimson Tide. Lacy is rising on draft boards, and after losing out on running backs in free agency, the Packers may decide to get one at any cost in the draft.

The notion that Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson may decide to draft a running back “at any cost” seems ignorant to me. As Packers fans know, Thompson is one of the most patient and value-oriented general managers in the league. He would never reach for a player, choosing instead to go a different direction or drop back in the draft. Thus, the idea that Thompson would reach for Lacy at 26 seems patently ridiculous. Running back does need to be addressed at some point, but that doesn’t mean Green Bay will select one with their top pick. As of right now, the Packers are one of two teams reported to be interested in former-New York Giant Ahmad Bradshaw, and Thompson could easily snap up a tailback on day two of the draft.

Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez (3) is sacked by Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Alec Ogletree (9) during the second half of the Capital One bowl at The Citrus Bowl. Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

For what it’s worth, most draft projections have popular Packer targets D.J. Fluker and Jonathan Cooper off the board before Green Bay selects. Fortunately, many valuable options remain. Alec Ogletree stands as the most likely player to significantly outperform his draft status. While the Packers have Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk returning, there may be a starting spot opening a year from now. Ogletree would be a wise investment now, especially with Bishop coming off of hamstring surgery and key reserve D.J. Smith recovering from a torn ACL.

USC Trojans wide receiver Robert Woods (2) makes a catch.

While many fans have lamented Greg Jennings’ departure, the Packers wisely prepared for the defection. Last season, Randall Cobb broke out in a big way and became Rodgers’ go-to receiver in the slot. With Jordy Nelson and James Jones nailing down the outside receiver spots, there’s a vacancy for someone who can fill Jennings’ old role. If California’s Keenan Allen falls a little due to his knee injury, he could provide the Packers a complete receiver to take over that role. Otherwise, the Packers could look in the second round at a number of wideouts. Louisiana Tech’s Quinton Patton and USC’s Robert Woods provide much of what Jennings did: good speed, great quickness and change of direction, and a knack for the big play. Both are talented, but if forced to choose I’d favor Woods. Woods is a better route runner despite being over two years younger, and he’s a near identical profile to Patton.

Louisville Cardinals running back Jeremy Wright (28) is tackled by Florida Gators defensive back Matt Elam (22). Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, if Green Bay doesn’t feel comfortable with Jerron McMillian or M.D. Jennings, they could pick a safety. Florida’s Matt Elam is a hard hitter with cornerback speed. He plays as well at the line of scrimmage (22 tackles for loss and 4 sacks since 2011) as he does in centerfield (6 interceptions and 18 passes defensed, also since 2011). He plays a lot like Bob Sanders, but with a little added size. If he’s not on the board, there’s also Florida International’s Jonathan Cyprien. Unlike Elam, Cyprien has prototypical safety size. He racked up tackles and sacks for FIU (365 and 13.5 respectively since 2009) and has been a decent playmaker. While he’d be a perfectly acceptable selection, Elam probably offers more of what Green Bay’s defensive backfield needs.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings (85) against the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Packers 37-34. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

For fans of the Green Bay Packers, yesterday’s news that Greg Jennings had signed a five-year deal with division rival Minnesota brought out a lot of emotions.

Many viewed it as the end of great players’ time with Green Bay, and accordingly felt sad and nostalgic. Others, unfortunately, responded in an ugly and classless way, wishing injury and misfortune on one the principals of the Packers’ last Super Bowl winning team. It’s regrettable and disappointing that so many fans would treat a classy person like Greg Jennings that way, but such is the case with a fanbase as large and passionate as the Packers’.

Partially due to that emotion, many myths have been propagated regarding Jennings and his move to Minnesota. We address them here, and explain why they are indeed untrue:

Myth: The Packers offered Jennings more money than the Vikings

Minnesota Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. Greg Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The misunderstanding is rooted largely in the difference between average salary and total money. Assuming the rumored $10 million per year offer from Green Bay was real, that doesn’t automatically mean Jennings took less money to go to Minnesota.

The contract Jennings signed averages out to $9.5 million per season. While that figure is less than the Packers’ offer, we can assume with confidence that Green Bay wasn’t offering five years. My best guess is their offer was in the order of $30 million over three years. Not only is that less total money, but it would mean Jennings would hit the free agent market when he is a 33-year-old. Receivers at that age, especially ones who are under six feet, generally don’t garner much interest. By signing the five-year deal with the Vikings, Jennings gives himself the best chance at earning big money into his mid-30s.

Myth: The Vikings will definitely cut Jennings before his five years are up

Greg Jennings (85) celebrates a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Lambeau Field. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

While the contract Jennings signed only guarantees $18 million, that doesn’t mean he can only depend on earning that amount. Even if we assume Jennings will decline in productivity over the course of the deal, the Vikings have no reason to release Jennings until at least three years have elapsed. At that point, Jennings could easily renegotiate his deal and still receive more money than he would have had he been an unrestricted free agent heading toward his thirty-third birthday. This deal gives Jennings leverage at age 33 that he wouldn’t have had with Green Bay. The worst case scenario for him is the Vikings cut him after three seasons and he still picks up checks for the remaining guaranteed money.

Myth: Jennings demonstrated disloyalty by going to Minnesota

You can apply this to any player on any team. The players don’t owe their teams, teammates, or fans anything, nor should they. In the NFL, the team can cut players or force them to accept pay cuts for any reason. Players are treated like chattel and then reprimanded when they try to optimize their value. To decry a player for leaving your favorite team, no matter what team he leaves for, is an absolute farce.

Donald Driver (left) and Greg Jennings (85) talk during training camp practice at Ray Nitschke Field. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Furthermore, anyone who thinks there are exceptions to this are living in a fantasy. Take Donald Driver. He spent his entire career with the Packers and said repeatedly that he’s happy to have only played for one team, but that’s easy to say once you’ve retired. So quickly do people forget that when his rookie contract expired, he nearly bolted. Had the Packers not come back with an offer for more money, Driver wouldn’t have lasted five years with the club.

Would Driver have been a bad person to have done so? Absolutely not, and neither is Jennings for leaving now. This is how the NFL works, and moreover, it’s always been this way. Some fans may pine for an era when players stuck with their original teams and those clubs fostered brotherhood, but that simply never happened. Even the Lombardi Packers were made up of many retread players. Hall of Famers like Fuzzy Thurston and Emlen Tunnell were signed from other teams. Accordingly, to contend that the NFL “became too much like a business” is a hilarious falsehood. It’s the same way it’s always been.

Myth: Ted Thompson needs to be fired

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) talks with general manager Ted Thompson during the Green Bay Packers organized team activities at Ray Nitschke Field. Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

I hope most of you aren’t in this camp. Ted Thompson isn’t perfect, but he doesn’t misevaluate very often. His track record when it comes to deciding whether to re-sign players or walk away is incontrovertibly good. Two years ago, Thompson predicted that Jennings might become too expensive or too much of a liability and drafted Randall Cobb as a replacement. At the time, many considered Cobb’s selection as a “luxury,” but he’s already proven those critics wrong.

Cobb has effectively become the Packers go-to receiver in only two years in the league, during which time Jennings has missed 11 regular season games. That’s not to say Jennings is no longer a good player – he is – but the Packers are better served developing their young players and finding new talent through the draft.

In the end, both the Packers and Jennings made the right decision. Jennings received the long-term security he understandably desired and Green Bay retains the cap room necessary to keep their most important players – Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews – in a Packer uniform for many years to come.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

December 23, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson (39) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. St. Louis Rams defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28-13. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The question for the Green Bay Packers was never should they try to sign Steven Jackson, but rather how much should they bid?

That didn’t stop hoards of fans from attacking Packers GM Ted Thompson when his proven free agency approach led to the former-St. Louis Rams running back signing with Atlanta. Some have even gone as far as to demand Thompson’s ousting. Granted, most fans are smarter than that, but it just goes to show you how quickly people forget a championship run followed by two straight division crowns.

May 22, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson during organized team activities at Ray Nitschke Field. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

Thankfully, the Packers’ organization doesn’t operate at the whim of the fans. Neither does Ted Thompson. During this free agency period, the Packers GM has approached former-Packer Cullen Jenkins and the aforementioned Jackson expressing interest. In both cases Thompson gauged the players’ level of reciprocal interest and gave both his price.

Thompson doesn’t look to sign players, he looks to acquire value. There’s no better way to build a team in the salary cap era. In Jenkins’ case, the New York Giants expressed greater desire (and overpaid accordingly). Jackson’s situation was a little more complicated. Several times since opting out of his contract with St. Louis, Jackson expressed considerable interest in coming to Green Bay. The Packers initially didn’t share the enthusiasm.

That changed this week, and blogosphere was abuzz over the potential marriage. The Packers are widely considered to be deficient at running back, and Jackson fits Green Bay’s zone-blocking scheme. But this is the NFL, and personnel decisions are not so simple.

This is where some fans disconnect with reality. The Packers need to preserve cap space to extend Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews. Thus, any deal with a free agent like Jackson must not cut into those funds. Even if Jackson returns to his 2010 form, unlikely as that is, he’s not worth the trouble if it means Green Bay losing its star quarterback or premier pass rusher. Despite this, the irrational segment of the fanbase wants to send Thompson to the guillotine.

While Thompson will never speak publicly about what transpired with Jackson, it’s easy to read the tea leaves. Jackson wanted (and received from the Falcons) a long-term commitment. The Packers, seeing Jackson’s age and the abuse he’s taken over nine seasons, didn’t want to commit for more than a season or two.

Jan 5, 2013; Green Bay, WI, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) pushes away Green Bay Packers safety Charles Woodson (21) during the 4th quarter of the NFC Wild Card playoff game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The result was Jackson making Green Bay his backup plan, and that’s OK. Thompson’s approach prevents Green Bay from falling into salary cap hell. Look no further than the AFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens both had to purge many of their best players just to get under the salary cap. In a few years, this offseason’s big spenders Seattle and Miami will have to do the same thing. It’s hard to win championships when you find yourself cutting your best players, something the Packers under Thompson very rarely had to do. When Green Bay does release a big contract early, it’s a case like Charles Woodson; a player who can no longer play at a high enough level.

Bringing this back to Jackson, it’s easy to see why Thompson balked at a three-year deal. Jackson’s productivity has dropped every year since 2009. Over that span, he led the NFC in carries with 1,171. That figure doesn’t even account for his catches out of the backfield, which add on another 177 touches. The combination of these hits has demonstratively worn Jackson down. Despite playing in all 16 games last year, he barely surpassed the 1,000-yard mark while averaging only 4.1 yards a carry. That’s hardly an elite back, let alone one worthy of a three-year contract after age 30.

Don’t agree? Let’s compare those numbers to a similar player who Packers fans are familiar with: Ahman Green.

Ahman Green battered defenses for many years, but the hits wore him down by his 30th birthday.

During his prime, Green was a powerful runner who also displayed great hands out of the backfield. His 1,883 rushing yards in 2003 and 594 receiving yards in 2001 are both team records. Green played well through his first seven season, but then the accumulated carries began to wear him down. His final full season in Green Bay, the then 29-year-old Green rushed for only 1,059 yards and 5 touchdowns. That season was eerily similar in many respects to Jackson’s final year with St. Louis. After that season, Green never rushed for more than 300 yards in a season again.

Now, that doesn’t mean Jackson will rush for less than 300 yards this year, but he won’t be the elite player most fans expect him to be. In all likelihood, 2013 will be Jackson’s last shot at a 1,000-yard season. Yet Atlanta will be paying him starter’s money for two additional years. It won’t be a surprise if Jackson doesn’t survive to the end of that contract. When that happens, there’ll be a lot of people who conveniently forget that they trashed Ted Thompson for not signing Jackson this offseason.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Nov. 25, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: St. Louis Rams running back (39) Steven Jackson runs the ball in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

While we wait with baited breath for Steven Jackson to announce where he’ll play in 2013, let’s remember back to 2009 when the now former-St. Louis Rams running back nearly ended up in Green Bay.

Torry Holt was one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the 2000s, but in 2009 he was age 33 with his best days behind him.

It was a very tumultuous time in St. Louis’s history. The Rams were coming off an appalling 2-14 season which saw head coach Scott Linehan axed after four games. Linehan never earned the respect of the team leaders Torry Holt, Marc Bulger, and the aforementioned Jackson, and the entire season was marked by mutiny.

When interim head coach Jim Haslett failed to shift the momentum, St. Louis made sweeping changes. Billy Devaney was promoted to general manager, and within a month the team also had a new head coach. Steve Spagnuolo, fresh off a championship season as defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, was brought in for the rebuild.

With these pillars now in place, the Rams looked to expunge their bloat and rebuild the roster with young talent on cheap contracts. St. Louis released Torry Holt in early March, and team officials began discussing internally the possibility of trading their franchise running back.

At this time, Green Bay was right in the middle of its transition out of the Brett Favre era. Aaron Rodgers, while extremely impressive in his first season under center, was not enough for the team to overcome its various deficiencies. Head coach Mike McCarthy hired Dom Capers to remodel the defense while GM Ted Thompson made a few calls to see who might upgrade the other side of the ball.

With Aaron Rodgers a full season into his career as a starter and Driver and Jennings forming one of the NFL’s best wideout tandems, the Packers believed their offense was about to take off.

The Packers offense wasn’t without talent, however. Besides Rodgers, Green Bay boasted two 1,000 yard receivers in Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and a 1,200 yard back, Ryan Grant. Not wanting to dilute the air attack, Thompson made a formal offer to the Rams for the suddenly available Steven Jackson. The compensation details vary depending on the source, but the offer did include Grant and draft picks.

What appealed to Green Bay was not only Jackson’s powerful running style, but also his utility in the passing game. Jackson had just caught 40 passes out of the backfield for 379 yards, the first of a five-year streak of 300+ yard receiving seasons that continues through today. The running back also demonstrated reliable pass blocking, something that Grant had not developed (and never would). Thompson felt that with Jackson, Green Bay could vault into the upper echelon of the league.

Dec 30, 2012, Seattle, WA, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson (39) is tackled by Seattle Seahawks defensive end Red Bryant (79) during the third quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

But it was not to be. The Rams ultimately decided to hold onto their star player, hoping that he would be part of the turnaround in St. Louis.

As we know now, the Packers ended up a playoff team without Jackson in 2009, and a Super Bowl Champion a year later. The Rams, on the other hand, have yet to win their division, make the playoffs, or even break .500 in the years since their near trade with Green Bay.

Now with a championship under his belt, Thompson can’t be too upset the Rams kept Jackson. He’ll have even less reason to care if Jackson signs with the Packers – at discount – later this week.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec. 16, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Lions 38-10. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to quarterback play, the Green Bay Packers are fortunate. Not only have the Packers transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, but they also possess the top passer in a division stocked with talented arms. The NFC North is one of only two divisions where every starting quarterback has led their team to the playoffs. In the modern NFL where passing and the ability to defend the pass are the strongest indicators of wins and losses, it’s important for Green Bay to keep tabs on the quarterbacks it sees most often.

With that in mind, let’s profile the resume and project the future for one of the NFC North’s other quarterbacks.

So without further adieu, the final NFC North quarterback under the microscope is…

Dec 30, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Ford Field. Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Name: Matthew Stafford

Team: Detroit Lions

Age: 25

Experience: 45 games, 44 starts

Resume: Matthew Stafford is the NFC North’s most intriguing case study. Stafford’s first two seasons were defined by injury, but both included extremely promising moments.

In his first complete season as a starter, Stafford exploded for a jawdropping 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. Yet Stafford’s more impressive statistic was 6.2 – the percentage of his passes that went for touchdowns. For context, the only passers that year who exceeded that figure were Tom Brady (6.4 percent), Drew Brees (7 percent), and Aaron Rodgers (9 percent).

Stafford’s touchdown percentage would have been top five in any of his four seasons in the NFL. Helping matters further, Stafford threw 2.56 touchdowns for every interception that year. It seemed as though his incredible physical gifts were finally coalescing with his mental preparation and that Stafford would soon be entering the pantheon of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.

And then came the 2012 season.

While Stafford narrowly missed another 5,000-yard season, virtually all of his other metrics regressed considerably. Stafford’s touchdown total was more than halved while his interceptions went up. He passed for his worst completion percentage since his rookie year, and averaged a Christian Ponder-like 6.8 yards per attempt.

Yet the most damning metric was Stafford’s touchdown percentage. It dropped from 2011’s impressive 6.2 percent to a paltry 2.8 percent, bad enough to finish bottom five in the league. The only players with worse figures were rookies and Matt Cassel. This comes at a time when the Detroit Lions are looking to extend Stafford’s rookie deal. How the Lions grade Stafford at this point in his career is anyone’s guess.

Dec 22, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) congratulates wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) during the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field. Falcons won 31-18. Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Projections: Despite his 2012 woes, Matthew Stafford projects very well. If there is one quarterback who can take Rodgers’ title as the best quarterback in the NFC North, unlikely as that may be, it’s Stafford.

He possesses the strongest arm in the division, and with Calvin Johnson just entering his prime, there is no reason to expect Stafford won’t be able to return to his high volume, high efficiency form. Detroit has no plans to bring in any competition, and probably couldn’t do so if they wanted to with their cap situation.

With the Minnesota Vikings in a war of words with Percy Harvin and the Chicago Bears entering the first year with a new head coach, there are games up for grabs. Frankly, even the Packers could take a step back this season with their losses on offense.

Stafford should perform much closer to his 2011 form, and if he does so the Lions are a real threat to challenge for a playoff spot and perhaps the division.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 2, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Soldier Field. The Seahawks won 23-17 in OT. Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to quarterback play, the Green Bay Packers are fortunate. Not only have the Packers transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, but they also possess the top passer in a division stocked with talented arms. The NFC North is one of only two divisions where every starting quarterback has led their team to the playoffs. In the modern NFL where passing and the ability to defend the pass are the strongest indicators of wins and losses, it’s important for Green Bay to keep tabs on the quarterbacks it sees most often.

With that in mind, let’s profile the resume and project the future for one of the NFC North’s other quarterbacks.

So without further adieu, the next NFC North quarterback under the microscope is …

Dec. 23, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) throws during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Name: Jay Cutler

Team: Chicago Bears

Age: 29 (30 by week 1)

Experience: 93 games, all starts

Resume: In terms of regular reason starts, Jay Cutler is the most experienced quarterback in the NFC North. Cutler’s career is best viewed as the tale of two quarterbacks. In Denver, Cutler threw for more yards and touchdowns with each passing season, culminating in his 4,526 yards 25 touchdown year in 2008.

In Chicago, the reverse occurred, with Cutler sliding in each of those categories until last season.

Those numbers don’t tell the complete story, however.

Cutler’s improved throwing interceptions 4.3 percent of the time his first two seasons with the Bears to a more reasonable 2.8 percent. Unfortunately for Chicago, his touchdown percentage dropped from 5.1 percent to 4.3 percent over the same period. The latter figure is only marginally superior to Ponder’s 4 percent over the same period. Worse still, Cutler is the division’s least accurate passer the last two years, completing only 58.4 percent of his pass attempts during that time.

Jay Cutler will have to learn how to beat the Green Bay Packers to continue his career in Chicago.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

However, it’s only fair to point out that Cutler has been saddled with easily the worst offensive coaching in the division. It’s for that very reason that Lovie Smith’s staff was sent packing after 2012 with noted offensive guru Marc Trestman taking the reins. Cutler is more talented than his aggregated Chicago statistics suggest. It’s easy to forget that in 2010, Cutler threw for a career high 5.3 touchdown percentage and his best touchdown-to-interception ratio (counting only seasons with 12 or more starts). When the conditions are favorable, that’s closer to the quarterback he really is.

Projection: Like Minnesota’s Christian Ponder, 2013 will be crucial for identifying Cutler’s future. When Cutler had quality offensive coaches, he was a 4,500-yard-plus passer with reasonable accuracy.

That hasn’t been the case in Chicago, but with Trestman now in charge that figures to change. With Brandon Marshall and a now healthy Alshon Jeffery manning the starting receiver spots, Matt Forte still possessing great hands out of the backfield, and an offensive line that can only improve, Cutler should have the tools necessary to resurrect his career.

Dec 16, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) makes a pass against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

The only thing standing in Cutler’s way is Bears GM Phil Emery. Emery was not part of the regime that traded for Cutler. With only one year left on Cutler’s contract and a new head coach in town, Emery may use this offseason to find his quarterback. If this happens, Cutler’s 2013 season will become an open audition.

That doesn’t mean Cutler can’t succeed. In 2004, second year Chargers GM A.J. Smith drafted Philip Rivers to be the long-term replacement for Drew Brees, the inconsistent incumbent drafted by the previous administration. The added pressure pushed Brees to produce the best season he’d ever have as a Charger. While Cutler is older than Brees was then, it’s reasonable to expect Cutler to perform well even in this scenario.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 23, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers center Evan Dietrich-Smith (62) during the game against the Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Field. The Packers won 55-7. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

An important morsel of information leaked just as the chaos brought on by the Percy Harvin and Anquan Boldin trades reached its apex yesterday. Evan Dietrich-Smith, restricted free agent and the presumed starting center for the Green Bay Packers, was tendered at the lowest level.

For those unfamiliar with the system, restricted free agents can be tendered by their teams at one of three levels. The highest level, which carries a price tag of $2.879 million, entitles the tendering team to a first round pick if another team signs the player. The middle level, coming in at a slightly cheaper $2.023 figure, returns a second round selection if another franchise signs the tendered player. The lowest tender, coming in at the very reasonable $1.323 million, will net the tendering team a pick in the same round where the player in question was selected. If the player was originally undrafted, as is the case with Dietrich-Smith, there is no draft pick compensation if another team signs the player away. Each tender provides the team with the right to match any contract signed by the player.

Dec 11, 2011; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers guard Evan Dietrich-Smith (62) blocks during the game against the Oakland Raiders at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Raiders 46-16. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

By tendering Dietrich-Smith at the lowest level, the Packers risk losing the only player on their roster with any game experience at center for nothing. That reveals a lot about how GM Ted Thompson views Dietrich-Smith. While any objective observer favored Dietrich-Smith over the aged Jeff Saturday last season, the 26-year-old Idaho State product is still far from a dominant center. By letting Dietrich-Smith dangle in the wind, Thompson has effectively told the rest of the league what Green Bay thinks of the center’s long-term future. It’s not that Thompson doesn’t think someone will attempt to sign Dietrich-Smith – though it’s possible no team tries – but rather that Thompson sees no reason to give this player a cent more than required. Dietrich-Smith is still the odds-on-favorite to be snapping the ball to Aaron Rodgers this year, but barring an incredible improvement in play, this is probably Dietrich-Smith’s last season in Green Bay.

Oct 27, 2012; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers offensive lineman Travis Frederick (72) during the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Camp Randall Stadium. Michigan State defeated Wisconsin 16-13. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

This can also be read as strong indication that the Packers will acquire a center in the draft. It’s a two-man race between Alabama’s Barrett Jones and Wisconsin’s Travis Frederick as to who is the first center off the board. The Packers are on the short list of teams that project to make that call.

More tender and free agency news is soon to come. Keep your browser fixed to Lombardi Ave for breaking news and analysis.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin (81) runs against San Francisco 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers (22) in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Apparently, Percy Harvin wasn’t the only player today told to “Go West, young man.”

The world champion Baltimore Ravens sent Anquan Boldin to the San Francisco 49ers. In return, Baltimore receives a sixth round pick and valuable cap relief. By trading Boldin, the Ravens have carved an additional $6 million in space for the Joe Flacco mega deal from earlier this month and receive a draft pick (albeit a late one) for a player many thought would be released.

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) throws as he is hit by Baltimore Ravens free safety Ed Reed (20) during the first quarter in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In the short run, the ramifications for the 49ers are far more significant. With Boldin now in tow, the 49ers have another physical target to pair with Michael Crabtree for must-have downs and conversions. His arrival also allows San Francisco to better optimize Mario Manningham as the third receiver.

In one move, San Francisco has remodeled its receiving corps to accommodate the needs and strengths of quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

The Boldin trade also redistributes strength out West. Two of last year’s NFC playoff teams are now noticeably better, and that’s before the draft, any major free agent signing, or player development has been factored in.

The Green Bay Packers are likely to stand pat, relying on their draft and develop program to keep them competitive in the changing NFL landscape. With a front office led by GM Ted Thompson, it’s fair to expect another great draft class. However, more than in previous years, Thompson has to hit pretty often in order for the Packers to keep contending.

Certainly, there will be more moves to come. Keep your eyes glued to Lombardi Ave to stay up to date with the latest NFL news and analysis.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Oct 21, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin (12) looks on during the second quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at the Metrodome. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman told us in February that the team had “no intention to trade” Percy Harvin. Apparently that didn’t mean they weren’t going to shop the star receiver. Word of a potential Percy Harvin trade leaked early Monday morning. Less than an hour later, Harvin was a Seattle Seahawk. Such is the reality of the NFL.

Sep 23, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin (12) catches a pass over San Francisco 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers (22) in the first quarter at the Metrodome. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

In exchange for Harvin, the Seahawks surrendered this year’s first round selection (number 25 overall), a seventh round pick, and a mid-round pick in next year’s draft. [Update: the Vikings have announced that the 2014 pick is a third rounder.]

That’s a reasonable package for Harvin considering he’s available for more than the nine games he played last year. Harvin’s injury risk is the only downside of the deal for Seattle, and it’s a doozy. Besides being a somewhat undersized pass catcher, Harvin has off and on trouble with migraines that can keep him off the field on Sundays.

That issue didn’t arise last year, but as anyone with migraines knows, even after a prolonged absence migraines can still come back with a vengeance. However, if Harvin stays off the injury report, Seattle can make a strong argument for having the best roster on paper.

As for Minnesota, the trade gives them near consecutive picks at the end of the first round and the capability of big time wheeling and dealing on draft day.

The Vikings are also now in position to make a play for free agent wide receiver Mike Wallace or former Packer Greg Jennings. The trade also says a lot about Rick Spielman’s approach. While Minnesota was a playoff team in 2012, the Vikings were still several steps away from true championship contention. By trading Harvin, Spielman is letting his team take a temporary step back so that they can take a much bigger jump the following season. This was a shrewd move that will put Minnesota in the best position to wrest the division crown away from the Packers in the near future.

This is the first major action in what contends to be a very chaotic offseason.

Keep your eyes on Lombardi Ave for more developments.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) against the Green Bay Packers at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Packers 37-34. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to quarterback play, especially in the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers are fortunate. Not only have the Packers transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, but they also possess the top passer in a division stocked with talented arms. The NFC North is one of only two divisions where every starting quarterback has led their team to the playoffs.

In the modern NFL where passing and the ability to defend the pass are the strongest indicators of wins and losses, it’s important for Green Bay to keep tabs on the quarterbacks it sees most often.

With that in mind, we here at lombardiave.com kick off this three-part series by profiling the resume and projecting the future for one of the NFC North’s other quarterbacks.

So without further adieu, the first NFC North quarterback under the microscope is…

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at the Metrodome. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Name: Christian Ponder

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Age: 25

Experience: 27 games, 26 starts

Resume: Having just turned 25, Christian Ponder is the youngest and least experienced starting quarterback in the NFC North. However, Ponder started at Florida State University for three seasons, which may give us a clearer idea of the type of player he is. What’s immediately apparent when examining Ponder’s college career is just how conservative he plays. Not once in his three years starting at Florida State did Ponder throw more interceptions than touchdowns. Also, with 2009 being the lone exception, Ponder never averaged more than 6.8 yards per attempt.

Ponder’s professional career has largely reflected this. In two years in Minnesota, Ponder has averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That figure falls about one yard per pass behind Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, and nearly two yards behind division leader Aaron Rodgers. More troubling for Ponder is the scarcity of scoring. Ponder’s throws only end in a touchdown 4 percent of the time, a division worst. Over that same period, Rodgers’ passes produced touchdowns at an 8 percent clip. While each quarterback is at wildly different stages of the development process, they’re competing for the same goals in the same division at the same time, thus necessitating the comparison. Needless to say, Ponder has a lot of ground to cover.

Projection: After analyzing Ponder’s conservative Florida State career as well as his first two campaigns in Minnesota, one has to wonder: Will Ponder ever become more of a risk taker, and does he need to for the Vikings to contend for a championship? It seems pretty safe to say that the answer to the first question is doubtful. While he will surely cut down on mistakes and take advantage of defensive errors more often as he matures, Ponder has never at any point displayed the temperament necessary to become a truly elite passer. Even if the Vikings improve at the wide receiver position, Ponder will still default to the short game more often than not. Big passing plays will have to come after the catch, which means the Vikings would be well advised to meet Percy Harvin’s contract demands.

Dec 2, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Ryan Pickett (79) tackles Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) during the game at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Vikings 23-14. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The answer to the second part of the question is more difficult. Minnesota has constructed its offense around Adrian Peterson and the running game. While Peterson performs at his current historic levels, it’s not necessary for Ponder to become an air raid quarterback. He does need to increase his touchdown efficiency, but probably not by all that much.

Where the Vikings will run into trouble is when Peterson’s production falls off. Only two years away from 30, and with 1,754 carries and a torn ACL already endured, Peterson won’t be the NFL’s pre-eminent running back for that much longer.

When the time comes, Ponder doesn’t project to cover enough of the difference to keep Minnesota’s offense at a Super Bowl contending level. For that forecast to change, Ponder has to make vast improvements this season. Few quarterbacks dramatically change their production after their third year starting.

If it doesn’t happen this year for Ponder, it’s pretty safe to write him off as anything more than a caretaker.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji (90) against the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Packers 37-34. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve spent any time at Lombardi Ave, you’re surely aware that the Green Bay Packers are set to negotiate three major contract extensions – B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Aaron Rodgers – over the next 12 months. Those extensions have been treated as a package deal in many ways, as all three players are represented by the same agent, David Dunn.

Because Raji and Matthews were drafted in the first round of the same year, they’re entering the final year of their rookie deals. Rodgers, having signed an extension midway through his first year as a starter, is under contract through 2014. Thus, the expectation for several years has been that Raji and Matthews will receive their new deals first, and then Rodgers’ extension will fall soon thereafter.

Jan 12, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter of the NFC divisional round playoff game at Candlestick Park. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

However, if recent reports are to be believed, a Rodgers extension could be in the works now prior to any extension for Matthews or Raji. This may be very telling, as even though Rodgers is by far the team’s most valuable and indispensable asset, he has two years left on his contract. He’s not the biggest worry the Packers have in terms of contract negotiations. So why would the Packers hammer out an extension with Rodgers ahead of the sooner expiring Matthews and Raji deals?

The answer may very well be that Green Bay doesn’t anticipate room for all three contracts, and thus will let Raji test the open market.

As currently constituted, the Packers have about $20 million in cap space. Part of that figure is already earmarked for the incoming rookie class with some space reserved for free agency and emergencies. However, most of that figure will go toward extensions. Next year’s salary cap doesn’t figure to increase very significantly, and with even more contract negotiations coming into view after 2013 – James Jones, Bryan Bulaga, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb chief among them – the Packers already have an idea of which deals they want to pursue and which ones they’ll pass on.

As we discussed as part of this week’s mock draft analysis, Raji presents all sorts of problems for Green Bay. His dominant 2010 season suggested he’d be one of the league’s best nose tackles for the foreseeable future, but Raji struggled to repeat that performance in 2011. This past year was even more confusing, as Raji returned to a high level of play but did so at the five technique position rather than the nose.

While there is value in a 3-4 end, a nose tackle is considerably more important to Green Bay’s defense. Furthermore, Raji will likely demand to be paid like a fulltime nose tackle rather than an end.

With just as much good tape as bad, no defined position, and limited cap space, how much can the Packers afford to invest in a Raji extension?

Dec 16, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) talk with outside linebacker Clay Matthews (52) before the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

Reading the tea leafs, it appears that Green Bay is letting their other extensions decide that question for them. Depending on how much it takes to re-sign Rodgers and Matthews, the Packers will know if a lengthy extension with Raji is reasonable.

They don’t want to be caught in a situation where they’ve extended Raji and don’t have enough cap space for either Matthews or Rodgers. Thus, Green Bay has prioritized their negotiations to prevent that scenario.

It’s unclear at this time what the end result will be, but it’s time to start wondering if this is Raji’s last season in the Green and Gold.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; A general view as members of the military are honored during the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

The Post-NFL Combine edition of the FanSided 2013 NFL Mock Draft has been released.

The fine folks over at FanSided.com do a new mock draft every week right up until the actual draft in April, and we at Lombardiave.com have plenty of offseason information to pass along to our readers. Many of the players we’ve mentioned in previous mock draft posts have their Pro Days coming up, and we’ll get a good opportunity to eyeball them once again and evaluate their performance.

Draft positions are set save for the Super Bowl participants. Barring a trade, the Green Bay Packers will make their first selection with the 26^th pick.

Jan 7, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Eddie Lacy (42) runs with the ball against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half of the 2013 BCS Championship game at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

According to FanSided, with the 26^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Eddie Lacy, Running Back, Alabama

Analysis: I’d love Barrett Jones here as he fills an immediate need but Lacy fills an even bigger one. The only knock on the Packers offense over the years has been the utter absence of a running game and the Alabama hammer can fix that right up. Running back is one of the most popular skill positions for fans to pull for and Lacy will help make the Packers offense even more dangerous than it already is. Besides, if you think Alex Green and Cedric Benson are the answer at running back for the Packers, please review the Packers 2012 running game and then check out how well Lacy ran in a devastating offense with the Crimson Tide.

There are three reasons I don’t like this pick. The first is I don’t think Lacy or any other running back in this draft is worth a first round investment. The second reason is that there are a lot of very comparable backs that can be had in later rounds, thus making this pick look even worse by comparison. Finally and most importantly, this selection rests on the assumption that the best and only way to improve the running game is to bring in a new running back.

April 14, 2012; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman D.J. Fluker (76) is blocked by defensive end D.J. Pettway (57) during the spring game at Bryant Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

As the first two reasons are self-explanatory, let’s just dive into the last one.

The Packers have struggled to consistently and effectively run the ball since Ryan Grant’s 2009 season. Certainly, part of the blame for that rests on the stable of running backs the Packers have trotted out since.

However, the lion’s hare of the blame falls on the offensive line.

Outside of Josh Sitton and 2011 Bryan Bulaga, the Green Bay linemen have been sub-average at run blocking. This fact was mostly ignored prior to last season as the Packers have been so pass-dominant that the linemen have mainly been judged on their pass blocking. That’s not unfair either, but now that the receiving corps is undergoing a renovation, there will be a greater importance placed on running.

The better fix than reaching for a running back is to grab a dominant run blocker. For this, we need to look no farther than D.J. Fluker. As has been discussed many times on Lombardi Ave, Fluker would team well with Sitton to create a run mauling right side the Packers haven’t had since Ahman Green’s 2003 season. Fluker is also a vastly underrated pass blocker and will rarely require tight end or running back help.

With the Packers desperate to reduce Aaron Rodgers’ sack count, adding Fluker would allow Bulaga to move over to the left side and give Green Bay solid depth behind them.

Dec 1, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman John Jenkins (6) reacts after a sack against Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback A.J. McCarron (10) during the second quarter in the 2012 SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers are on the verge of a major decision regarding B.J. Raji. The 26-year-old defensive lineman is entering the final year of his rookie deal. The Packers have to decide whether to extend him now, or risk losing him after 2013 when he hits the open market.

While Raji has been dominant for large stretches of his career (the 2010 season, the second half of 2012), he’s also been invisible for just as long. As if the situation wasn’t complicated enough, Raji hasn’t been able to settle into a defined position. During 2010, Raji played mostly at nose tackle. He played in that spot again in 2011, but was not nearly as productive.

This past year, Raji moved to the five technique and had a resurgence. The problem, however, is defensive end is much less important to Green Bay, yet Raji is going to get paid as a full-time nose tackle. If the Packers believe Raji will return to playing effective nose tackle with additions and developments beside him at end, then extending Raji isn’t an issue. If the team believes Raji will never be an effective full-time nose tackle, then it’s a very good time to find Raji’s replacement.

While FanSided mocked him a pick earlier, Georgia’s John Jenkins is an ideal fit for the Packers’ defense. He’s even bigger than Raji and has just as much explosiveness. Like many nose tackle prospects, he needs to improve his lower body strength and work through double teams, but that’s why he might available at 26.

Another option that demands further discussion is the idea of trading down.

At 26, the Packers are in prime position to trade out of the first round with a team that wants to grab a quarterback. With the Alex Smith trade depressing rookie quarterback demand, it’s highly possible that only one quarterback has been taken off the board by the time Green Bay is on the clock.

Teams with an obvious need at quarterback always play coy about making aggressive moves to get one, but come draft time that James Bond-like neutrality gives way to nerves and impatience. The Packers have made a living off of those types of teams, and they could do so once again this year. With the strength of the 2013 draft lying in the second and third rounds, optimizing the number of picks in that territory seems wise. It may be a disappointment for fans wanting to hear a name called for their team, but that’s a small price to pay for the huge value upgrade such a move entails.

November 25, 2012; New Orleans, LA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (11) paces the sidelines during first quarter of their game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) started the game instead of Smith. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Yesterday, the San Francisco 49ers sent backup quarterback Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs. In return, San Francisco receives the 34^th overall pick in the upcoming draft and a conditional third round selection in 2014 that could convert to a second rounder depending on Smith’s playing time. That’s a large haul considering the dearth of demand around the league.

But it’s a robbery considering Smith’s low volume production.

While Smith finished with his most efficient year as a pro (he led the league in passer rating at the time he was benched), the former 49er has yet to produce a single season with 3000 or more yards passing and 20 or more touchdowns. Even Smith’s 2012 projected out to a full season – 2779 yards, 21 TDs, and 8 INTs – wouldn’t provide 3000/20 volume.

For the 49ers, Smith was more of a passenger of the ship than its captain. It begs the question: is a quarterback that is only efficient when he doesn’t take risks worth such a major investment?

There aren’t any great comps for the Smith trade, which is easy to understand. Teams with quarterbacks of any discernible quality rarely allow them to leave. Of the few occasions when a team did trade a quality quarterback, only the trades of Brad Johnson and Matt Cassel provide any insight into what the Chiefs can expect with Alex Smith.

Even though he lead Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl, Brad Johnson was never the most imposing passer.

In 2001, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers acquired Brad Johnson from Washington. An off and on starter, Johnson was a moderately efficient passer who the Buccaneers felt could optimize their talented but underachieving roster. In comparison to Smith, Johnson was a higher volume passer but less efficient. Regardless, Johnson was no one’s definition of a franchise quarterback. Rather, he was a quality short term solution to a prolonged quarterback shortage in Tampa. In Johnson’s first season as a Buccaneer, Tampa actually regressed, falling to 9-7 and third in the NFC Central. That led to head coach Tony Dungy receiving his walking papers and Tampa trading a truckload of draft picks for Jon Gruden. A year later, Tampa improved to 12-4 and won their first championship in franchise history. While that might imply the Johnson trade was a sterling success, it’s important to remember how much Tampa relied on their defense. That year, the Buccaneers lead the NFL in yards given up, points allowed, and points scored by a defense. By comparison, the Tampa offense finished 24^th in yards and 18^th in points scored. While Johnson provided leadership, he didn’t provide all that much in the way of an aerial attack. If Johnson’s performance is any indication of what the Chiefs can expect from Alex Smith, the Chiefs’ defense will have to improve dramatically, especially given the high draft picks Kansas City parted with.

November 18, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (7) is sacked by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap (96) and defensive tackle Geno Atkins (97) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

More recent was the case of Matt Cassel. Cassel barely played in college or in New England prior to 2008. That was the year Tom Brady tore his ACL in week 1, clearing the way for Cassel’s first meaningful snaps since his senior year of high school. To the surprise of many, Cassel played well, throwing for almost 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record. By the following season, Brady had healed and Cassel had been acquired by Kansas City. As with Brad Johnson, the early returns were disappointing. Cassel had as many interceptions as touchdowns, and the Chiefs went 4-12. In 2010, Cassel’s touchdown total increased by more than 10 while his interceptions were reduced by over 50%. Not coincidentally, the Chiefs won the AFC West for the first time since 2003. Unfortunately, that’s the best it got for Cassel in Kansas City. His next two years were a cocktail of injuries and unmet expectations, finally culminating in the aforementioned Alex Smith acquisition. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, both Brad Johnson and Matt Cassel suggest that this was a bad trade for Kansas City.

Now, the more pressing question for Green Bay: how will this trade affect the Packers? Or more specifically, how will the trade affect the Packers’ draft?

Dec 29, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) warms up prior to the start of the 2012 New Era Pinstripe Bowl against the Syracuse Orange at Yankee Stadium. Syracuse defeated West Virginia 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

As I wrote about earlier this month, the Packers will be greatly benefited or hurt by how many teams select quarterbacks in the first round. Any quarterback taken before the Packers’ selection will be a reach in terms of raw value, not to mention it keeps a player the Packers may desire on the board. Prior to the Smith trade, Kansas City was widely believed to be a possible destination for a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs had been connected to West Virginia’s Geno Smith, a quarterback with both speed and pocket passing skills not too unlike new Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s old protégé, Donovan McNabb.

Now with the Chiefs out of the quarterback market, it stands to reason that one less quarterback will be selected prior to Green Bay’s pick. The consequences of this are too remote to decipher at this time, but as we’ve seen it only takes one player to fall to change a franchise. Take the Packers for instance. In 2005, due to a confluence of a favorable draft order and quarterback demand, Aaron Rodgers fell from the top 10 to the mid-20s. The Packers snatched him up, and three years later the Packers were rewarded for their foresight and patience with a true franchise quarterback. But the Packers struck again in 2009, when B.J. Raji fell to pick 9 due to false reports of a positive drug tests. In just two years Raji became the most important defensive lineman on Green Bay’s Super Bowl winning roster.

There is another angle to the Alex Smith trade. The strength of the 2012 draft lies in the second to third round, where there is little to no drop off in value from player to player. Smart teams will try to maximize the amount of picks they can get for those rounds through trades. Had Kansas City not traded for Alex Smith, they might have drafted Geno Smith at number one. They also might have drafted another player and tried to trade back into the late first for another shot at a quarterback. The Packers were in prime position to be that team that trades back for more picks in that uber-valuable draft range. While that could still happen, there’s one less team vying for the Packers’ pick.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings (85) against the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Packers 37-34. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

This past Sunday, the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the Green Bay Packers are seriously considering applying the franchise tag to free agent wide receiver Greg Jennings. The news came as a shock to most, as Jennings had been all but written off as a luxury the Packers couldn’t afford. Suddenly the paradigm has shifted and a future with the Packers number one receiver isn’t so intangible after all.

But let’s just slay this beast now. Nothing has changed. Greg Jennings is still as good as gone.

When a rumor, any rumor, hits the newswire during the pre-draft part of the offseason, the smart approach is that of skepticism. These rumors do often come from someone close to the situation, but that’s not a good reason to believe them. All parties involved want to calibrate the audience to believe their side, regardless of how far they have to strive from the truth. These rumors are almost always a skewered form of what’s actually happening, if anything is happening at all.

Sep 13, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Review of the Jennings rumor

After going a full year without any meaningful conversation with Jennings and his agent regarding an extension, Packers GM Ted Thompson apparently is now seriously considering applying the franchise tag. This is the same Ted Thompson who habitually cuts ties with older, injured veterans and has built a team with only two players aged 30 or older under contract. This Ted Thompson apparently has decided to franchise a player who’s missed 11 games over the last two seasons and turns 30 in September.

Doesn’t that seem a little out of character for a man who’s never out of character?

Unless David Byrne is masquerading as Ted Thompson in the Packers’ front office, this rumor is no more likely than Reggie White lining up for Green Bay next season. The Packers under Thompson have shied away from holding onto expensive veterans who appear to be on the downside of their career. You don’t have to look back very far to find an example. Hell, you don’t even need to flip the page on the calendar. On Feb. 15, Charles Woodson was handed his walking papers. Woodson was set to make $10 million and nearing his 37 birthday. Despite playing competently when healthy, he’d become too much of a health risk. Accordingly, Thompson decided his cap space was better spent elsewhere.

Some have theorized that the Packers might be planning to tag Jennings so that they can trade him for draft picks. While that would make far more sense than retaining Jennings, that boat doesn’t hold much water either.

Jan 1, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn (10) drops back to pass during the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Lions 45-41. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

If you recall the 2012 offseason, the Packers faced a similar franchise tag situation with quarterback Matt Flynn. Flynn was considered the top quarterback available in free agency after Peyton Manning, and the news surrounding 1265 Lombardi Ave. was that the Packers would franchise Flynn and trade him to the highest bidder.

As we know now, Thompson never pulled the trigger on the franchise tag. By all accounts, Thompson is a straight shooter and doesn’t like to bend the rules. While there is no way to stop teams from applying the franchise tag for the purposes of trading the tagged player, it goes against the spirit of the rules. It may seem silly, but that’s a line Thompson has repeatedly refused to cross, and thus it’s very unlikely the Packers will do a tag and trade with Jennings.

So why is this rumor even out there?

At this point we’re left with only conjecture, but we’re not totally in the dark. This past Friday, it was reported that the Jennings camp is seeking a contract that pays around $14 million per year. Such a deal would make Jennings the third highest paid receiver in the NFL. Even the most ardent Jennings supporter would be hard pressed to rank him that highly.

If Jennings were that much of a game changer, wouldn’t the Packers be knocking down his door with contract offers? That’s where this rumor comes in. It seems logical that the Jennings camp leaked this story to the press to create the illusion that the Packers do indeed want to keep him. While that won’t manifest a contract with the Packers, it does provide leverage in a negotiation with his next team. Jennings will be able to get a lot more money if there are not only several teams bidding for his services, but his original team still values his abilities.

Regardless of the exact reason for the rumor, it’s unlikely that the end result is another season for Jennings in Green Bay. The Packers have more vital extensions to sign with B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Aaron Rodgers, and Jennings can get a far larger contract on the open market. At this stage, both parties have more to gain apart than they do together.

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