The Aaron Rodgers to Jermichael Finley connection could play a huge role in the Packers success in 2013.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

I’ll be honest, I’ve been absent from much of the offseason discussion about the Green Bay Packers so far for three reasons: First, I was sickened by the Packers postseason performance – again. Second, the draft speculation while fun to read is just a space filler until the draft actually happens and the real analysis can begin.

No offense to those that do it, it just isn’t my bailiwick. Considering the relatively limited amount of knowledge I have (and to be honest, really don’t want to know) about most college football players, I think we are all better off.

Third, free-agency is never part of Ted Thompson’s larger plan. Greg Jennings’ departure was a virtual lock given his price, age, and injuries. I would have like to have him in another division, but he will learn that while Ponder/Cassel are in the same division as Aaron Rodgers, they are not in the same league.

On to the schedule …

While we knew the who and where at season’s end, the variable of WHEN adds a huge part to the mix. There are definitely advantages and disadvantages to when you play who on the schedule. For example, had the Packers played at the Minnesota Vikings week 1 instead of week 17 last year, the outcome would likely have been different.

Pros:
No back-to-back road games …
I guess this can be seen in different ways. Team travel this year only involves changing more than one time zone once and only one team flight will be more than 2.5 hours (SF the notable exception). While this means they won’t be gone multiple weekends in a row, they will be traveling every second weekend with no long home stands. I still look at it as a net positive.

Playing the Redskins week 2 …
This will become more clear as the summer approaches with regard to RG3′s status for the early season. RG3 is a dangerous player both with his arm and his legs, but after what happened at the end of last season, I’d expect the Redskins to be much more cautious with their franchise player. I would also expect RG3 to play it a bit safe. The Packers are the better team either way, but later in the season the Redskins will be more formidable.

Packers get three teams coming off of a short rest (Monday-Sunday) and only play one Monday-Sunday combination: This is sometimes overstated, but the extra day of rest and recuperation can only help the Packers. More importantly, I think, is that it will give the staff an advantage in game prep.

Depending on how far along Robert Griffin III is in his rehab will determine whether he plays against the Packers in week 2 of this coming season.
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Ten days rest before Atlanta: This starts the tough December schedule run (see below) and the Packers need to be ready for last year’s number 1 overall seed. This may be the game that decides the 2013 home field advantage.

Cons:
Tough opponents stacked in September and December …
The Packers start tough and end tough with a SOS in September of .656 and a December SOS of .641.
(Overall SOS for 2013 – .533) Looking at this in the off-season is never exact as some teams will improve or decline in 2013, but considering the ‘soft’ games (versus non-playoff teams) in September and December are Steelers, at the Cowboys and at the Bears, the schedule makers did the Packers no favors.

Week 4 bye: I always like to see the bye after eight or nine games. The season can wear hard on guys, especially mentally, and the longer guys go without some time to recover, the less focused they can become. Thankfully the Packers get a kind of mini-bye week after the Lions on Thanksgiving (or does that count as a double bye?).

Here’s how I see it:

The Packers match up with the 49ers once again in the first week of the season.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

@ 49ers : Can the Packers win in the opener in SF? Absolutely! I do expect this to be a good game and depending on which team shows up for the Packers, they can win. Will they? Too hard to say yes. L (0-1)

Redskins: Packers opening the home slate at Lambeau – RG3 probably not 100 percent, but even if he is, the Packers win. W (1-1)

@ Bengals: Definitely not a pushover, but certainly a team the Packers should beat. W (2-1)

Lions: The Lions haven’t won at Lambeau since this year’s NFL draft class was born. W (3-1)

@Ravens They are the Super Bowl champs, but paying Joe Flacco and parting with some major pieces, I don’t think the Ravens will be anywhere as good as the team they were last year. And I’m talking about the team that was 10-6, not the team that made the great Super Bowl run. W (4-1)

Browns Really? W (5-1)

@Vikings The obvious key to this game is stopping Adrian Peterson, but even when they didn’t do that in the regular season finale they lost by only a field goal. The Packers will be better this time. W (6-1)

There will be plenty of time for strategy sessions between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy this season.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

Bears Another division rival at home and the Bears haven’t shown the ability to beat the Packers recently. The Packers are the better team and should win this one at Lambeau. W (7-1)

Eagles: This could be a classic letdown game, unless the Eagles are better than I expect them to be and impossible to overlook, or the Vikings and Bears are worse. I say this is a letdown after two good division wins, a short week after Monday Night Football and a primetime matchup in the Meadowlands to follow. Besides, I’ll be there with my loud, obnoxious, but fun (Eagles fan) neighbor. L (7-2)

@Giants This is the game the Packers will be looking to if they overlook the Eagles. With that in mind, I expect a good performance in the Meadowlands. Besides, I’ll be there with my less loud, less obnoxious, but no less fun (Packer fan) buddy. W (8-2)

Vikings: Division games are always dangerous, but I expect the Packers to hold the line at home. W (9-2)

@Lions: Another Turkey Day matchup and this one will depend on how the Lions season has gone to this point. I see these Lions around 4-7. W (10-2)

Falcons: This will be a key game for the Pack. Ten days to rest and prepare for last year’s number 1 seed. I think the Pack was a better team last year and I still think so. W (11-2)

@Cowboys A-Rod and the Packers first return to Jerry’s World since Super Bowl XLV. Where the Cowboys are in the standings at this point will make a huge difference. If the Cowboys are out of contention the place will be a sea of Green and Gold, but I’ll say they need the win and get the Packers on another letdown after the win vs the Falcons. L (11-3)

Steelers: The Packers go from Jerry’s World to hosting their worthy opponents from Super Bowl XLV. After the disappointing letdown in Arlington, the Packers lock up a bye with their 12th win of the season. W (12-3)

@Bears If the season gets to this point where I expect it to be, the Bears will need a win to get in and the Pack will have the first or second seed locked up. I’d love to say otherwise, but in that situation with Mike McCarthy at the helm, the Packers will hold starters out. L (12-4)

That’s my take on the Packers 2013 schedule at first glance. There are still 4 -1/2 months to go before a real game is played, so many things can change. I expect the Packers to be in the hunt once again and hopefully finish strong with a win in the frigid Meadowlands in February.

Jan 12, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the second quarter of the NFC divisional round playoff game at Candlestick Park. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Enough ‘rah-rah’, ‘they are better than that’, ‘ugly wins are still wins’ blather … the fact is that the Packers played one (1) complete game in the 2012 season. They beat the teams that they should have beaten (Indy the notable exception) based on talent alone, with the lone exception being at the Texans where the Packers played (IMO) their only complete game of the year. Much like the 2011 season, winning can hide deficiencies which can come back with a vengeance in the playoffs.

Setting aside the fact that the Packers gave up 579 yards (sic) of total offense to the 49ers, the Packers failed at almost all of their signature “critical points.” The most important of those is the ‘double-up’ at the half, Rodgers even talked about it in the run up to the SF game. A perfect opportunity was squandered on third and 8 when Kaepernick was able to scramble for a first down just after the two-minute warning.

What is truly infuriating is that the defense played like they didn’t know Colin Kaepernick would be a run threat. In fact, the scheme didn’t even seem to take that into account at all. Let’s see: LBs crashing down on the read option? Check. Total disregard for outside containment on the QB? Check. I thought those would have been emphasized in film study in the run-up to last weekend, but that game is over along with the 2012 season.

Living in the Philadelphia area, I am no stranger to disappointment, not for myself but for many friends. The depth of the disappointment is dependent on expectations and while those have been low around here lately, for a Packers fan things are different. MVP QBs don’t grow on trees, and the Packers have one. Not just a franchise QB, an MVP. There are exactly three of those in the NFL, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Rodgers. And while Rodgers is the youngest, they seem to be piddling away opportunities to win championships. No one can expect to top Tom Brady’s run of 3 out of 4 Super Bowls to start his run, but if Aaron Rodgers ends up like Peyton Manning (4 MVPs, 1 Super Bowl) it won’t be good enough.

Add to the mix that Roethlisberger and the other Manning have two Super Bowls each and Rodgers’ ‘legacy’ will negligible outside of Wisconsin without at least one more Super Bowl win.

The Packers stumbled through the 2012 season, and while they showed flashes of a great team, I never saw dominance outside of the Houston game (the meaningless game against the Titans doesn’t count). The regular season finale in Minneapolis should have opened my eyes; when they needed to, the defense couldn’t step up their game.

Another offseason has come too soon.

To be honest, it will probably be in a negative light; there will be missed FGs and the team that misses the least FGs will win the game Saturday night. The real difference could be that the 49ers brought in a challenger and the Packers didn’t. Will that make a difference? That is yet to be seen. Mike McCarthy’s approach has been to profess public confidence in Mason Crosby, an average kicker, while the 49ers brought in Billy Cundiff (an NFL castoff) to challenge Akers, one of the (historically) best kickers in the NFL.

I know it’s a tired line and it’s not a positive note, but kicker can win for you or they can lose for you. Crosby has been horrible from 40+ and worse than that from 50+. He’s made 6 in a row and 8/9, but you can call me a skeptic until he kicks a second 40+ FG in the 49ers game. In my opinion the biggest part of the kicking game is managing momentum. When a drive stalls around the 35, it is great to have a kicker who can make a 52 yarder, but when the kicker’s confidence is down the right move is to punt or go for it on 4^th down. I reference the Giants game, where a missed 55yd FG changed the momentum at MetLife stadium.

After trading TDs in opening drives, the Packers held the Giants for a 3 and out and (thanks to a nice 15 yd return by Cobb), started at their own 46 yd line. At that point, the Packers had a chance to silence the crowd and seize an advantage. An end around by Cobb gained 12 and put the Pack in Giants territory with a 1^st down. The drive stalled and Mason Crosby came on and missed a 55 yd FG. Eli Manning and the Giants used the short field and scored a TD, energized the crowd and the rout was on. It ended as the worst loss for the Packers in years.

The crowd matters and the Packers need to play to quiet the crowd early, whether it be on offense or defense. MM almost always defers when winning the toss, so I expect the same this week. A defensive stop will go a long way, but absent an ensuing TD drive, I’d rather have Tim Masthay kicking from the 35 than Mason Crosby.

A perfect solution would be for the Packers to get TDs on their first three possessions and stifle the 49ers offense, but that is a pipedream. Crosby’s leg may be what makes the difference between the Packers hosting the Seahawks at Lambeau and watching the NFC Championship from the couch.

Follow me on twitter @PegLegPilot Follow us all @lombardiave; you may also follow us on Facebook.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) throws during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at the Metrodome. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

I couldn’t have been more wrong about last week’s game at the MallofAmerica/HubertHHumphrey Metrodome.

I underestimated the motivations that the Vikings had in their favor and, quite frankly, underestimated the Vikings. I also underestimated the Vikings fans, as I thought they might have sold their tickets for the Packers game before it became a meaningful game.

I was wrong.

It’s not the first time and I’m sure it won’t be the last, but while I counted on AP to be great, I didn’t count on Christian Ponder to beat the Packers. It isn’t necessarily reflected in the stat line, but Ponder beat the Packers, not Peterson.

Adrian Peterson
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings played the possession game and did it very effectively using AP. Keeping Rodgers and the offense off the field is part of any effective game plan against the Packers, but as dominant as AP was, it took Ponder to extend drives on third down. The Vikings converted 50 percent of their third downs and ALL of those were either completions or scrambles by Ponder (he also scrambled for nine yards on third and 10 and AP did the rest on fourth).

My point is, Peterson played like himself, but Ponder moved the chains. I did notice lapses in coverage, which may or may not have been a result of attempting to shut down Peterson, but the fact is that Ponder completed throws he usually wouldn’t be able to make.

AP averaged 4.7 yds on first down, but while he made a first down in four of those carries (four carries for 62 yards). He gained only 2.7 YPC on first down otherwise. Christian Ponder had to make plays to rectify that and he did. While AP’s numbers were nearly identical to the game at Lambeau, Ponder was better at the Metrodome.

Essentially what it comes down to is this: In order to win the game, we need to stop Ponder, not Peterson, though stopping Peterson would help. There is a reason the Packers won by 11 at Lambeau and lost by 3 in Minnesota. At Lambeau they played to win and let AP be great. In Minny they played to stop AP, as great as he is, and they allowed Ponder to beat them.

If the Packers focus on stopping AP instead of playing solid defense, the result will be similar to last week. If they want to play in San Francisco they need to stifle the rest of the Vikings offense.

The annual debate over whether to rest starters or go all out is in full swing again this season just like every other season. The situations are never identical, but whether a team decides to play to win or live to fight another day, they will forever be second guessed if the playoffs are a letdown.

Last season, the Packers had “nothing to play for” in week 17. Aaron Rodgers (along with his 45 TDs) was on the bench along with other key players. We all know how that worked out in the end.

I think, in hindsight, the only Packer who truly benefitted from that game was Matt Flynn!

This year is a very different scenario in that both the Packers and the Vikings have “something to play for.” The Vikings are in the playoffs with a win and, very likely, out with a loss.

The Packers can lock up the #2 seed and a coveted Bye. Obviously, a playoff berth is big, but just how big is a bye these days and should the Packers go all out to secure the bye?

As you may or may not know, since 2002, 5 out of 10 SBs (including 5 of the last 7) were won by teams that did not have a first round bye. Three of those five teams were Wildcard teams that never even played a home game in the playoffs! Of course WINNING the SB is the goal, but in order to have a chance to win the SB, you have to make it to the SB, and that is much more likely if you earn a first round bye.

Since 2002, #1 or #2 seeds represented their respective conference in the big game 14 out of 20 times. But, amazingly, in the last 5 years the NFC has had just one #1 seed and ZERO #2 seeds make it to the Super Bowl and only once in that span did both top seeds win after the bye (#1 seeds were just 1-4!).

AFC teams have done better, managing to get one of their top seeds to the Super Bowl every year for the past 5, but they are 1-4 in that span in the Super Bowl. The recent history in the NFC notwithstanding, a team with a bye has much better odds of making it to the Big Easy this year.

What it all boils down to is that the Packers need to treat this like a playoff game, bring their ‘A’ game and get a victory. If for no other reason than to prevent it from becoming one next week at Lambeau, but securing a bye will be a bonus!

WITH A PACKERS WIN: With a win, of course, the Packers get the bye as the #2 seed. From the Packers’ (and the NFLs) standpoint, all of the hullabaloo about the “inaccurate reception” will be over. The NFL and the replacement refs will be off the hook. If the Bears manage to win in Detroit, they will be the #6 seed. If they lose, they would open the door for the Giants to limp in with a win against the hapless Eagles coupled with a Cowboys win. To be honest, I’d rather see the Bears in the playoffs than the Giants. The Packers have the Bears number, but the Giants have the Packers number. I don’t see the magic happening for the Giants this year, but they’ve been written off before and made great runs.

WITH A VIKINGS WIN: The Vikings are in as the #6 seed and the Packers will play them at Lambeau unless both SF and SEA lose. One thing I hate, as a Packer fan, is to have to play another division game in the playoffs! The rivalries in the NFC North are legendary and the Vikings have had some success at Lambeau in the playoffs in the recent past, so I’d rather eliminate the Vikes at the earliest opportunity. Add to that, a trip to SF or SEA for the divisional round will make it an even tougher road.

The best scenario for the Packers is eliminating the Vikings and securing a bye. Along with that, I’d like to see the Cowboys knock off the Redskins; RGIII isn’t someone I’d like to see in the playoffs.

Prediction:

If the Packers come out like this is a playoff game, it shouldn’t be a contest. Granted, Adrian Peterson racked up 210 yards at Lambeau, but a big chunk of that came on his 82 yd TD run in the 1^st half. Even with that, the Packers still put up a W. Christian Ponder stinks on ice and without Percy Harvin, he stinks even more than that. The Packers won’t completely shut down AP, but they certainly have nothing to fear from the Vikings passing attack.

Defensively, the Vikings shut down Houston on the road last week. That was impressive, even considering Houston’s inflated status in the main stream sports media. I don’t expect the same this week. The Packers are peaking at the right time (both offensively and defensively) and I don’t expect a hiccup at this stage in the season.

PACKERS 31 – Vikings 13

The Packers put the rest of the NFL that not only they are they ready for the post-season, they are peaking at the right time. With the Packers 55-7 destruction of a thin and completely outmanned Titans team on Sunday, they served notice that they are every bit as good as they were expected to be this season, if not better.

I won’t overstate the win, it was against the Titans who have been a pretty poor team this season, but the dominance the Packers showed was impressive. It was such a mismatch that by midway through the third quarter I began to feel sorry for the Titans. The only blemish on an otherwise stellar defensive effort occurred after I completely lost interest and tuned to the Red Zone channel to watch what else might be of interest.

With the win, the Packers virtually guarantee the #3 seed. (Two 49ers losses and 2 SEA wins make them a 4 seed) They can add a bye week with a win next week in the Mall of America-Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome  (or whatever it’s called) coupled with a 49ers loss in Seattle tonight or versus Arizona next week.

Obviously the best chance for that is tonight in Seattle, and I fully expect the Seahawks to deliver the gift of a potential bye. They will help themselves by winning tonight as well, securing one of the 2 Wild Card slots. Hey, they owe us at least that much!

All of that could go up in smoke if the Packers can’t secure a win next Sunday in Minnesota. Adrian Peterson is going for the all-time single season rushing record and they are coming off an impressive win on the road in Houston. The H-Dome is loud and unlike many years, this game may mean a lot to both teams: A potential bye for the Pack and a playoff berth for the Vikes.

Tonight’s game is the key for next week to be meaningful for everyone.

For what it’s worth, GO SEAHAWKS! I’d like the chance for the Packers to get the bye they deserve…

Any Green Bay Packers fan knows that Mason Crosby has struggled mightily this season. Since coming on the scene for the Packers in 2007, he has been a pretty good kicker. He made nearly 80 percent of his kicks and even did pretty well from over 50 yards. He was a key part of the Packers last Super Bowl run as he tacked on points even when Rodgers and company couldn’t manage to find the end zone, he made the team better. In 2012, that hasn’t been the case. He has struggled to find confidence even though he still shows that he has a great leg. That was further evidenced in Sunday’s game vs. the Bears where he missed badly on 2 FGs and the Packers opted to go for it on fourth down rather than bring Crosby on for a chance, even from inside 50 yard. How long can that last in the NFL playoffs?

Mike McCarthy wants to just ignore the fact that Crosby has the ‘yips’ and he hopes they will go away, but time is short as the postseason approaches. The question is: Should the Packers stick with Crosby, who has been fairly solid in years past but currently can’t hit it reliably between the uprights from over 40 yds or dive into the unknown with someone (anyone) else? There are kickers out there just waiting for a shot and I’d like to see the Packers bring someone in for a workout, but whom should it be?

The Packers might find the answer in a kid who many teams have as their top-rated Free Agent kicker. His name is Michael Barnard. Barnard played his college ball at a private university, Fairleigh-Dickinson. He has been on the short list for numerous NFL teams over the past few years. He isn’t some fly-by-night, wannabe either; in fact, he might have made the Eagles squad this year if Alex Henery hadn’t had such an amazing rookie season in 2011.

The Philadelphia Eagles invited Barnard to their Rookie Mini Camp last spring. Barnard showed his poise and leg strength while making 30/32 kicks, including 4/4 from 50+, but the Eagles declined to mount a challenge to Henery and opted not to sign Barnard for a training camp competition. Henery had made 89% of his kicks for the Eagles as a rookie in 2011. The Eagles personnel department even shopped Barnard’s credentials around to other teams because they believed so much in his ability. He showed them that he has the leg and the moxie to be an NFL kicker.

Barnard’s strong leg and confidence have attracted attention around the NFL. The kid is GOOD! He works hard and has dedicated himself to making the grade in the NFL, working out 6 days a week kicking and conditioning while he waits for his shot in the NFL.

Arizona has recently brought him in for a workout and they, along with Philadelphia head a growing list of NFL teams that have targeted Barnard as their next potential kicker, so why shouldn’t the Packers?

If anyone out there can explain to me how the Packers are better off heading to the postseason with Crosby than with an up and coming (potential stud) kicker, I’m listening. It’s hard enough to win close games, but in the playoffs the Packers need a better kicker than the one they have.

Check out Barnard on one of his YouTube videos below by going to MoneyKicker34.

OH! How the “Inaccurate Reception” still haunts the Packers…

While I was (I feel, rightfully) infuriated over the (non)TD non-catch/MD Jennings interception, I never thought that it would play a huge factor in the NFC playoff race, but it may now become mammoth. Aside from the obvious extra loss for the Packers, the Seahawks have a real chance to win the NFC West if they can beat the 49ers at home next weekend.

That, in and of itself, is immaterial if the Packers can manage to win out. Road games against the Bears and Vikings stand in their way and those games are always difficult within the division. It would be wonderful if the Packers could ‘drop’ one of those games and still get a 1^st round bye, but as nice as that would have been, it was most likely lost in Seattle. And while winning out is still a possibility, I don’t expect the Packers to win against both the Bears and the Vikings and it all comes down to numbers and the numbers don’t favor the Pack.

NO Team has gone unbeaten in their division 2 years in a row since the current 4 division alignment was adopted in 2002. NONE, ZERO, NIL, NADA! This period includes the 16-0 Patriots and the dominant Colts. I’m not positive that it hasn’t ever happened, but in today’s NFL it just does not happen. Sadly, that means the Packers are likely lose to either the Bears or the Vikes, it’s just what the numbers say. The good news is that they will win the division with a win against either team as long as they beat the Titans at Lambeau.

On to my main point, the “Inaccurate Reception”: Seattle has been coming on strong with wins against the Bears (thank you!) and an annihilation of the Cards. If they can beat the 49ers next week in the Thunder (retractable) Dome, they will almost surely finish at 11-5 and win the NFC West. This could end up being a HUGE travesty for the Packers, not only robbing them of a bye week, but forcing them to go back on the road to play in Seattle again.

I was in Seattle for the game in September, 10 rows up in the now infamous end zone, and I saw the play. I have been to many stadiums and it is, without question, the loudest place I’ve ever been to see a game, even when Packer fans were abundant. Playing the Seahawks at home after they’ve had a bye will be as difficult as was in September only more so. The energy of the crowd will be amped up for a playoff game, period. Then consider the fact that their fans won’t be selling 1/3 of their tickets to Packers fans and factor in that nearly all of them believe Golden Tate caught that ball when anyone with access to the internet knows otherwise.

A Packer win this week will go a long way toward allaying my concerns, but the true impact of the “Inaccurate Reception” may not yet be complete.

Follow me @peglegpilot, follow us all @lombardiave

Aaron Rodgers was far from spectacular this past week, as have been the Packers, but the team continues to win.

Well, another ho-hum win for the Packers on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers threw no touchdown passes at home for the first time since he became the starter. No actual sacks by the defense (a run OB for a ‘team’ sack), no tackles for a loss and only 2 QB hits all night. But the defense did get two gifts from Matt Stafford in the form of a fumble (returned for a TD) and an easy INT for Sam Shields.

Just another W.

There are going to be the haters out there, particularly divisional rivals’ fans who will point to the “blandness” of the Packers victory. “The Packers aren’t that good, they are lucky” or “Wait until they face a ‘good’ team” they might say. The fact is that division games in the NFL are ALWAYS hard, NFC North or otherwise. If you doubt it, take a look at the Falcons, Bears, Giants and 49ers who all lost to inferior division rivals over the past few weeks. Any given Sunday, as the saying goes, any NFL team can beat another. Division rivalries prove it more often than any other matchup.

What happened on Sunday night is that the Packers made plays when it counted. While it looked to be a shootout a la last year’s season finale at the beginning, the Packers overcame a costly fumble by Rodgers in the red zone (and subsequent TD drive) by stymieing the Lions offense whenever they had the ball the rest of the way. After those first two possessions, the Lions never made it into the red zone again. They were able to move the ball, but the Packers offense was able to win the field position game.

What doesn’t show up on the stat sheets or in the highlight reel is how well the Packers have been playing as a team, resilient and able to overcome adversity. The Packers were shorthanded at nearly every position Sunday night, but they cobbled together a win through running the ball behind a ramshackle offensive line and timely playmaking by Rodgers.

This Packers team just isn’t the same team that won 15 games last season and never trailed in the fourth quarter until the loss against the Chiefs. Injuries have, if you’ll pardon the pun, hamstrung this team since week two. The good news is that players that might have been forced to IR in previous years will be able to return for the Packers to finish the season. Sam Shields is finally back and making an impact. Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson may be back for this weekend. Jennings has had surgery and is back in the lineup and it is only a matter of time until he, Jordy, JJ, Cobb and Finley are all lined up and the Packers free-for-all offense is back instilling fear into the hearts of defensive secondaries.

I wasn’t looking forward to this tough stretch of NFC Norris division games, particularly with the injuries, but the Pack has come through so far. As long as they keep putting up Ws, style doesn’t matter, I’ll take ho-hum anytime!

Follow Tommy Marquardt @PegLegPilot; follow us all @lombardiave; and on Facebook.

Mason Crosby’s kicking woes have been a hot topic recently and I have been as concerned as anyone. The FG is supposed to be the LEAST exciting, most predictable part of the game… kicker runs on, kicker kicks ball through uprights, kicker runs off. It seems almost automatic that a kicker makes every kick less than 50 yds! But let’s be real:

The Packers haven’t needed Crosby to “make” many kicks in the past 3 years. In fact his missed kicks never changed the outcome of any game until this season, and barely so.

Crosby’s mistakes this year are not new, but his lack of confidence is new. He has a great leg for distance. When it doesn’t matter he can nail it, but right now he has the ‘yips’. You can’t cure the yips by going for it on 4^th and 4 from the 35 and you can’t cure it by faking field goals. Crosby needs to kick it out… in a game, when it matters.

Mason Crosby needs to work through his case of the “yips.” Raymond T. Rivard photograph

In Crosby’s defense he has never been particularly accurate from 40+ yards, so his failure to convert this year is merely a symptom of the Packers offense stalling a bit further from the goalpost than they have in past 2 years. Crosby has a career kicking percentage of 60.5% for kicks over 40 yards (46/76). This year he is just 50%, but he already has 10 attempts from over 40 yards this year compared to just 8 attempts all of last season and 14 in all of 2010.

What it all boils down to is that the Packers need to do a better job moving the ball from the 40 to the 30 and beyond. Granted, Crosby needs to do better, but relying on a kicker to be the difference by making 40+ yard field goals at Lambeau in December and January is a recipe for failure.

When the offense is “whole” again with Jennings back, Jordy 100%, Starks and Benson as a 1-2 punch, and all of the receivers avoid dropping catchable passes, I think this problem will be an afterthought. In the meantime, I hope MM will let Crosby kick away to get through his ‘yips’.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

The return of Greg Jennings should be a good thing for the Packers in the second half of the season. Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

The Green Bay Packers’ bye week went by and things got both better and worse for the Pack … The NFC teams pumped as “better” than the Packers all lost (OK, the 49ers TIED the Rams in SF… still just as good for the Pack).

That included the Sunday night game where the Chicago Bears (who still suck, BTW) lost a sloppy game to the Texans. That helps the Packers in the NFC mix, but then the news that RT Brian Bulaga was put on IR for the hip injury he suffered versus the Cards came out. Who’d have thought that when he walked to the locker room against Arizona that he would be done for the season?

Injuries are part of the game, evidenced by four starting QBs being knocked out before halftime this week (Vick, Alex Smith, Cutler and Roethlisberger), so the Packers are not alone. Getting some of the playmakers back on the field against the Lions will be a welcomed sight.

Playoff Picture

It’s starting to get chilly in Central Wisconsin and gun-hunting season is already opening on Saturday. That means it isn’t too early to look at the path to the playoffs in the NFC.

The easiest path for the Packers would be to run the table which is entirely possible. But given the injuries and road games against the New York Football Giants and the Bears, I don’t see it as likely. If they do manage to beat both of those teams, dropping one of the four games against the Lions and the Vikings aren’t out of the realm of possibility. What I see is the Packers finishing at 12-4 or 11-5. Where does that fit into the playoff picture?

NFC North:

The Bears showed that they were who I thought they were on Sunday night. True, the weather was a factor, but it was the same for both teams. The Bears’ offense with or without Cutler is just OK. If they fall behind and NEED to pass, they will have trouble, but their defense can keep them close. That being said, the Bears D is good, but I don’t think they can count on getting a defensive TD every week to prop up the lack of offensive production. While the game against the Packers on Dec 16 will likely decide the NFC North, I’d like to have the Bears lose to the 49ers and the Seahawks before then.

The Bears aren’t the only “contenders” to deal with but I’m not a real believer in the Vikings. They have a brutal final 6 games facing both the Bears and Packers twice along with Houston (5 games against teams with a combined 34-11 record). Going 3-3 in the stretch run would be a great finish for the Vikings but that would only get them to 9-7. The Rams are the only team they can be confident to beat in that stretch so getting to 10 wins is going to be tough, much less 11 or 12. They just don’t have enough to make it through this year.

If the Packers beat the Bears in December and finish at 12-4, that should be enough to take the division.

The NFC Wildcard:

This is where I have to consider the possibility that the Packers don’t win the NFC North.

Obviously the wild-card route is something these Packers have taken before, so playing on the road through the postseason is not the end of the world. If the Packers only make it to 10-6, they will almost certainly make the playoffs.

They will need to win the Lions and Vikings games, as they should. If they do that, even a loss at Chicago, NY and Tennessee probably won’t keep them out of the playoffs. Losing games to either the Lions or Vikings AND losing both at the Giants and at the Bears will give the Saints or Cowboys a chance to get in over them, but it would take a 7-0 finish for the Saints and at least 6-1 finish for the Cowboys. I’d hate for it to come down to tiebreakers with anyone considering what happened in Seattle.

The Big Game:

While the Packers will want payback against Eli Manning and the Giants next weekend, the game the Packers need the most will come against the Bears on Dec 16^th.

That may be for all the marbles in the NFC North and a first round bye, but another sweep of the Bears would be great regardless.

Jennings, Woodson, Benson and Matthews will be back by then, all fresh and ready for another Super Bowl run.

Nov 4, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back James Starks (44) rushes with the football during the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Cardinals 31-17. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

I had to look back at one of my old blog posts from a different site from back in the 2010 SB season after Sunday’s game.  At the time, the Packers were on the edge, injuries had taken a toll and they just couldn’t run the ball.

Sound familiar? This is my blog entry from early December of 2010:

Was that a running game I saw?

December 6, 2010

By citizen 

 

What many football pundits, analysts and Packer fans have been looking for is a Packer running game.  Last week, even I made the point that the Packers didn’t have a running game… not by choice, but by necessity, based on personnel.  But, I think they may have answered the call for “balance” with rookie James Starks.  Starks was a sixth round pick who missed his entire senior season at the U of Buffalo with a shoulder injury.  Then, after a hamstring injury back in May, Starks spent the first 12 weeks on the PUP until his NFL debut against the ‘Niners.   Starks showed vision and power while carrying 18 times for 73 yards.  He isn’t Adrian Petersen, Matt Forte, or Javid Best…but I think he could be the answer to those who question the Packers’ ability to run the ball in December and January.  After seeing Starks this week, is there anyone who thinks we’d have gone for a QB sneak from the 2 yd line… twice?  Me neither.

 Could James Starks be the difference? 

I don’t even remember very many aspects of that game other than the arrival of a running game.  Even at that point, it wasn’t great, but it was REAL.  The same happened on Sunday against the Cardinals.

Starks has been dealing with a turf-toe injury most of the season and is always one mistake away from being in McCarthy’s dog house.  After his fumble that Rodgers had to dive on Sunday, I didn’t see him for a full quarter.  Not coincidentally, in my opinion, the Packers offense struggled to move the ball with him on the bench. (No first downs in the third quarter)  He was the workhorse in the fourth quarter to burn the clock with 10 carries for 30 yards, not great, but not terrible when everyone in the stadium knows what’s coming.  He had seven carries for 41 yards before the fourth quarter.

Alex Green benefited as well, and I think it has to do with the differences in their running style. Starks is better in a crowd. He shows patience and commits to a cut, goes downhill and may break a tackle or two. Green is better in space, he isn’t as patient but he is full speed right away and if he gets in the open he can make plays.

Is this the end of our running woes? We won’t know the answer  for a few weeks, but here’s to history repeating itself!

Tommy Marquardt

Follow me on twitter @PegLegPilot

Follow Lombardiave.com on Facebook

Oct 28, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) sneaks in for a first down during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-US PRESSWIRE

I wasn’t able to make a timely commentary on the Packers-Jaguars game due to Hurricane Sandy … I’m sure you’ve heard about it.

Suffice to say it was an ugly win and I think the Packers will have pored over the film and will be better prepared this week against the Cardinals. I’ll add that if the Packers play as poorly on offense as they did last week, they will have their hands full with the Arizona defense and will likely lose the game.

How are the Packers doing at the midpoint?

The answer for me is: “Pretty Good!”

The offense is brilliant at times, methodically driving down the field. At other times, the plan seems incoherent as they attempt to establish a run game with little hope of success. I thought that MAYBE they threw on 1st down more often last year than this year, but after looking at the stats I was surprised. Last season the Packers had an almost 50-50 split of run/pass of 1st down, nearly identical to this season. Rodgers has been almost up to his 2011 standards, probably because the sports media has said he couldn’t do it again.

What is the difference then?

While yards per rush are nearly identical on 1st down (3.8 in 2011/3.7 in 2012), yards per pass attempt (YPA) is WAY down from 9.6 in 2011 to 6.7 (on 1st down) so far this season. The same goes for 2nd and 3rd down. Overall YPA is off from 9.4 in 2011 to 7.3 this season. Every other statistic is in line with 2011 numbers except one: Yards after the catch (YAC) has gone from 6.2 to just 4.5 this season.

The question is: WHY?

Sep 9, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings (85) during the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lambeau Field. The 49ers defeated the Packers 30-22. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

My answer is Greg Jennings. Jennings didn’t lead the team in YAC last year, Jordy Nelson did, but that was when Jordy was the #2. Nothing against Jordy, he is a legit #1, but when teams are focused on stopping him as opposed to stopping Jennings, his YAC was bound to drop. Jennings faced the same in past seasons and while it cut his YAC, Jordy could run free over the middle and deep. James Jones and Randall Cobb have made some impact this season and Cobb looks particularly promising (5.5 YAC), but the absence of Jennings is the biggest deficit in comparison to last season.

The defense has also been hit and miss. At times they have been brilliant, as they were against Houston and Chicago, and at other times they were unable to stop the worst offense in the NFL (Jacksonville). Even with their weaknesses, the Packers defense is 12th in points allowed per game, 10th best in 3rd down conversions against and 13th in yards per game. The turnover differential isn’t impressive at +3, but it is tied for 8th best in the league.

What matters most is that they are certainly improved over last year’s defense, but injuries have begun to take their toll. With any luck, the injuries will have come at an opportune time, as the Packers have what I consider offensively ‘challenged’ teams until they face the Giants on the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

What comes through is that the Packers are a better overall team than they were at the midpoint last season. The offensive explosiveness is hindered by Greg Jennings’ injury, but if he can return by December, the offense will be the better for it. If the rest of the receiving corps can catch like they are able, Rodgers will be the MVP again.

But the defense also needs to absorb the injuries and get off the field on third downs.

Like Lombardiave.com on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

October 21, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Daryl Richardson (26) carries the ball as Green Bay Packers strong safety Charles Woodson (21) defends during the first half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-US PRESSWIRE

It seems like the injuries are starting to pile up again this year after a relatively clean season last year.  The question is: when is the Pack going to lose that last player that holds up the whole house of cards?

The secondary is quickly becoming a concern, not only for the injury to Woodson, but the earlier injury to Sam Shields as well.  BJ Raji has missed the last two games, but is probable for Sunday. Worthy and Neal have done a good job covering that void, but it will be nice to have the big man back in the middle.  Bishop was lost early and Nick Perry is out again this week , Walden has stepped up and played well.

On offense, Greg Jennings has been out and Kuhn (out) and Jordy (questionable) are hurt this week.  Cedric Benson went down, but Alex Green has played decently in his spot.

Time and again, the depth of the Packers has been evident.  Let’s hope that continues for at least a few weeks until the Packers can get a few more opening day starters back into the lineup.  In the meantime, a few more players will get to showcase their skills against a Jaguars team that is struggling, to say the least.

With all of that being said, everybody has injuries and the Packers aren’t unique in that respect.  Although, I do think the timing for the Packers couldn’t be better.  Of course, no injuries would be better, but if you have to have several missing pieces, this week would be time for it to happen.

The Jaguars will try to turn their season around when they invade Lambeau Field today. Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

The fact is that  injuries or not, the offense has been tremendous over the past two weeks. Aaron Rodgers has settled into a groove in the last two games.  As long as he plays like he has recently, the Packers will score points.  It won’t hurt playing against a Jags defense that is ranked 28^th overall, 24^th against the pass and has just five sacks all season.

I don’t want to dismiss the Jaguars as a potential threat; they are an NFL team (technically). With the injuries mounting for the Packers it is fortunate for them to host the Jags this week.  Considering the number of missing parts on the defensive side of the ball, facing the team that is ranked  dead last in both total offense and passing yards along with being ranked just 25^th in rushing yards (and now without their stud running back  Maurice Jones-Drew), “fortunate” is probably an understatement.

Ironically, the Jaguars have played much better on the road than at home.  With an apathetic fan base in Jacksonville, these guys have played with more heart when they are in a stadium filled with raucous fans. But this is Lambeau, not the Metrodome.   Jacksonville is without Maurice Jones-Drew and they have Blaine Gabbert at quarterback.  Add to that the fact that the Packers haven’t put on a real show at Lambeau yet this season and I expect them to make a statement on both sides of the ball.  It would be an epic failure if the game weren’t effectively over by halftime.

Packers 45 Jags 7

Follow Tommy on Twitter @PegLegPilot.

Like Lombardiave.com on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Oct 21, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Alex Green (20) carries the ball against the St. Louis Rams during the first half at Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-US PRESSWIRE

Here are some observations from Week 7 -

Aaron Rodgers was just 2/6 on balls thrown more than 20 yds down the field. The 2 completions were “free” plays after the Rams jumped offside. The first completion went to Jordy Nelson for 52 yds, the second to Cobb for a 39 yd TD. Maybe some guys will be less apt to guess on the snap count, maybe not.

October 14, 2012; Houston, TX, USA; Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews (52) reacts after a play during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

Coming off of last week’s solid performance, It could be easy for the Pack to relax, if it weren’t for weeks 1, 3 and 5. The focus was there on both sides of the ball from the first snap and lasted until the game was well in hand. That’s the Packers everyone expected to see this season. They showed signs of it in earlier games, particularly the Bears game, but never put that complete game together until last Sunday night. Will that focus and intensity carry through to this week’s game at the Rams?

GB Offense vs Rams D:

The Packers have given up the most sacks (23) in the NFL thus far, including 8 in the first half at SEA alone. That’s the bad news. The good news is that since that debacle in SEA (Ugh! I was there!) The Packers O-line has been very good in protection.

Since that 1st half against the seadawgs, the Packers have only allowed 7 sacks in 14 quarters (5 in the second half vs Indy). What they face this week is a defense who knows their offense will, most likely, not give them any room for error. The Rams Defense, like the rest of the Ds in the NFC West, is no slouch. They are tied for 5th in the league in sacks with 18 through 6 games. That makes them dangerous against the Packers pass first approach, especially considering that 9 of those sacks came on 1st and 2nd down.

I’d expect to see Rodgers under some pressure early in the game, probably from the 2 DEs Chris Long and Robert Quinn.  If the line can slow down the pass rush enough to give Rodgers time to get the ball out or use his mobility to create space, I think the Packers Offense will have a big day. If the opposite occurs and the Packers offense get’s itself in 2nd or 3rd and long situations, it will be a recipe for disaster ala Seattle.

I’d hope the game plan includes some quick passes to take some pressure off of Newhouse and Bulaga from the outset, an early screen pass might be nice. The secondary can be beat, especially if Rodgers gets some time.

GB Defense vs Rams O:

The Packers lead the league in sacks thanks, in a major part, to the Clay Matthews effect. The way Dom Capers has elected to move him around to create matchup problems is working well. Jeff Fisher has probably worked all week on addressing the matchup challenges he poses, but the Rams have some of the same protection problems as the Packers, giving up 18 sacks though 6 weeks.

I expect the Claymaker to draw the attention and while the Rams might hold him without a sack, it will likely be a net loser for the Rams offense as Worthy, Neal, and Pickett pick up the slack. If the pass rush can’t get to Sam Bradford multiple times today I’d be surprised.

The Rams rushing offense has been even more anemic than the Packers. They have just 1 rushing TD on the year, by Sam Bradford. Steven Jackson has been pedestrian and I don’t expect the Rams rushing game to suddenly come to life. I’d expect the Packers to ensure that is the case and make Sam Bradford beat them with his arm.

Bottom Line: The Packers are the better team in talent, coaching, and experience. The question is : Was last week the awakening of the sleeping giant or a moment of clarity for an inebriated drunk stumbling home? I’m betting on the former. PACKERS 31 – Rams 17

Aaron Rodgers will let his play speak as the Packers head into the final 10 games of 2012. Raymond T. Rivard photograph

That’s Aaron Rodgers comment to the critics who doubted the Pack thus far and I think he is right on the money.

I can’t say that the 42-24 beat down of the Texans was just what I expected, but I do know that the Packers were better than 2-3.  I’ve heard all of the media excuses for the Texans failures, but very little on the Pack  being truly BACK.  I can understand the concerns of those who resist reading too much into one game.   I think when we look back at it, this may have been the “AHA!”  moment for this year’s Pack akin to the narrow  loss to the Patriots in 2010.  That was point where the Packers gained confidence on both sides of the ball and the Packers didn’t lose another game for 364 days.

Aaron Rodgers was the 2010-11 version, spreading the ball around and extending plays with his mobility.  The receivers caught the ball when it was catchable, though not all of the TEs did great.   Alex Green and the other runners provided enough of a run threat to keep the HOU defense honest.

Defensively, Clay Matthews set the tone.  He has always drawn attention and he continually disrupted the Texans’ offensive tempo.  They shut down Arian Foster and made Matt Schaub try to beat them with his arm.  It wasn’t perfect, but they made plays when it mattered and held the Texans’ offense to 17 points.  Also key was making the interceptions when Schaub made mistakes, unlike a few earlier games this year.

I don’t want to imply that the Pack are going to make another run akin to that 19 game win streak.  After all this is still the NFL, but the game they played on Sunday night was more like that 2010-11 Packer team than the one we saw in 4 out of the 5 first games this season (and the playoff loss to the Giants).  I certainly think they will be a solid favorite in their next 4 games and if they play to this level they will be be narrow underdogs to just the Giants and the Bears(on the road) the rest of the way.  It’s a good start, let’s hope it continues.