Dec. 16, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Lions 38-10. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to quarterback play, the Green Bay Packers are fortunate. Not only have the Packers transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, but they also possess the top passer in a division stocked with talented arms. The NFC North is one of only two divisions where every starting quarterback has led their team to the playoffs. In the modern NFL where passing and the ability to defend the pass are the strongest indicators of wins and losses, it’s important for Green Bay to keep tabs on the quarterbacks it sees most often.

With that in mind, let’s profile the resume and project the future for one of the NFC North’s other quarterbacks.

So without further adieu, the final NFC North quarterback under the microscope is…

Dec 30, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Ford Field. Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Name: Matthew Stafford

Team: Detroit Lions

Age: 25

Experience: 45 games, 44 starts

Resume: Matthew Stafford is the NFC North’s most intriguing case study. Stafford’s first two seasons were defined by injury, but both included extremely promising moments.

In his first complete season as a starter, Stafford exploded for a jawdropping 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns. Yet Stafford’s more impressive statistic was 6.2 – the percentage of his passes that went for touchdowns. For context, the only passers that year who exceeded that figure were Tom Brady (6.4 percent), Drew Brees (7 percent), and Aaron Rodgers (9 percent).

Stafford’s touchdown percentage would have been top five in any of his four seasons in the NFL. Helping matters further, Stafford threw 2.56 touchdowns for every interception that year. It seemed as though his incredible physical gifts were finally coalescing with his mental preparation and that Stafford would soon be entering the pantheon of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.

And then came the 2012 season.

While Stafford narrowly missed another 5,000-yard season, virtually all of his other metrics regressed considerably. Stafford’s touchdown total was more than halved while his interceptions went up. He passed for his worst completion percentage since his rookie year, and averaged a Christian Ponder-like 6.8 yards per attempt.

Yet the most damning metric was Stafford’s touchdown percentage. It dropped from 2011’s impressive 6.2 percent to a paltry 2.8 percent, bad enough to finish bottom five in the league. The only players with worse figures were rookies and Matt Cassel. This comes at a time when the Detroit Lions are looking to extend Stafford’s rookie deal. How the Lions grade Stafford at this point in his career is anyone’s guess.

Dec 22, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) congratulates wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) during the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field. Falcons won 31-18. Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Projections: Despite his 2012 woes, Matthew Stafford projects very well. If there is one quarterback who can take Rodgers’ title as the best quarterback in the NFC North, unlikely as that may be, it’s Stafford.

He possesses the strongest arm in the division, and with Calvin Johnson just entering his prime, there is no reason to expect Stafford won’t be able to return to his high volume, high efficiency form. Detroit has no plans to bring in any competition, and probably couldn’t do so if they wanted to with their cap situation.

With the Minnesota Vikings in a war of words with Percy Harvin and the Chicago Bears entering the first year with a new head coach, there are games up for grabs. Frankly, even the Packers could take a step back this season with their losses on offense.

Stafford should perform much closer to his 2011 form, and if he does so the Lions are a real threat to challenge for a playoff spot and perhaps the division.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 2, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Soldier Field. The Seahawks won 23-17 in OT. Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to quarterback play, the Green Bay Packers are fortunate. Not only have the Packers transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, but they also possess the top passer in a division stocked with talented arms. The NFC North is one of only two divisions where every starting quarterback has led their team to the playoffs. In the modern NFL where passing and the ability to defend the pass are the strongest indicators of wins and losses, it’s important for Green Bay to keep tabs on the quarterbacks it sees most often.

With that in mind, let’s profile the resume and project the future for one of the NFC North’s other quarterbacks.

So without further adieu, the next NFC North quarterback under the microscope is …

Dec. 23, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) throws during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Name: Jay Cutler

Team: Chicago Bears

Age: 29 (30 by week 1)

Experience: 93 games, all starts

Resume: In terms of regular reason starts, Jay Cutler is the most experienced quarterback in the NFC North. Cutler’s career is best viewed as the tale of two quarterbacks. In Denver, Cutler threw for more yards and touchdowns with each passing season, culminating in his 4,526 yards 25 touchdown year in 2008.

In Chicago, the reverse occurred, with Cutler sliding in each of those categories until last season.

Those numbers don’t tell the complete story, however.

Cutler’s improved throwing interceptions 4.3 percent of the time his first two seasons with the Bears to a more reasonable 2.8 percent. Unfortunately for Chicago, his touchdown percentage dropped from 5.1 percent to 4.3 percent over the same period. The latter figure is only marginally superior to Ponder’s 4 percent over the same period. Worse still, Cutler is the division’s least accurate passer the last two years, completing only 58.4 percent of his pass attempts during that time.

Jay Cutler will have to learn how to beat the Green Bay Packers to continue his career in Chicago.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

However, it’s only fair to point out that Cutler has been saddled with easily the worst offensive coaching in the division. It’s for that very reason that Lovie Smith’s staff was sent packing after 2012 with noted offensive guru Marc Trestman taking the reins. Cutler is more talented than his aggregated Chicago statistics suggest. It’s easy to forget that in 2010, Cutler threw for a career high 5.3 touchdown percentage and his best touchdown-to-interception ratio (counting only seasons with 12 or more starts). When the conditions are favorable, that’s closer to the quarterback he really is.

Projection: Like Minnesota’s Christian Ponder, 2013 will be crucial for identifying Cutler’s future. When Cutler had quality offensive coaches, he was a 4,500-yard-plus passer with reasonable accuracy.

That hasn’t been the case in Chicago, but with Trestman now in charge that figures to change. With Brandon Marshall and a now healthy Alshon Jeffery manning the starting receiver spots, Matt Forte still possessing great hands out of the backfield, and an offensive line that can only improve, Cutler should have the tools necessary to resurrect his career.

Dec 16, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) makes a pass against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at Soldier Field. Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

The only thing standing in Cutler’s way is Bears GM Phil Emery. Emery was not part of the regime that traded for Cutler. With only one year left on Cutler’s contract and a new head coach in town, Emery may use this offseason to find his quarterback. If this happens, Cutler’s 2013 season will become an open audition.

That doesn’t mean Cutler can’t succeed. In 2004, second year Chargers GM A.J. Smith drafted Philip Rivers to be the long-term replacement for Drew Brees, the inconsistent incumbent drafted by the previous administration. The added pressure pushed Brees to produce the best season he’d ever have as a Charger. While Cutler is older than Brees was then, it’s reasonable to expect Cutler to perform well even in this scenario.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) against the Green Bay Packers at the Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Packers 37-34. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to quarterback play, especially in the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers are fortunate. Not only have the Packers transitioned from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, but they also possess the top passer in a division stocked with talented arms. The NFC North is one of only two divisions where every starting quarterback has led their team to the playoffs.

In the modern NFL where passing and the ability to defend the pass are the strongest indicators of wins and losses, it’s important for Green Bay to keep tabs on the quarterbacks it sees most often.

With that in mind, we here at lombardiave.com kick off this three-part series by profiling the resume and projecting the future for one of the NFC North’s other quarterbacks.

So without further adieu, the first NFC North quarterback under the microscope is…

Dec 30, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at the Metrodome. Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Name: Christian Ponder

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Age: 25

Experience: 27 games, 26 starts

Resume: Having just turned 25, Christian Ponder is the youngest and least experienced starting quarterback in the NFC North. However, Ponder started at Florida State University for three seasons, which may give us a clearer idea of the type of player he is. What’s immediately apparent when examining Ponder’s college career is just how conservative he plays. Not once in his three years starting at Florida State did Ponder throw more interceptions than touchdowns. Also, with 2009 being the lone exception, Ponder never averaged more than 6.8 yards per attempt.

Ponder’s professional career has largely reflected this. In two years in Minnesota, Ponder has averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That figure falls about one yard per pass behind Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler, and nearly two yards behind division leader Aaron Rodgers. More troubling for Ponder is the scarcity of scoring. Ponder’s throws only end in a touchdown 4 percent of the time, a division worst. Over that same period, Rodgers’ passes produced touchdowns at an 8 percent clip. While each quarterback is at wildly different stages of the development process, they’re competing for the same goals in the same division at the same time, thus necessitating the comparison. Needless to say, Ponder has a lot of ground to cover.

Projection: After analyzing Ponder’s conservative Florida State career as well as his first two campaigns in Minnesota, one has to wonder: Will Ponder ever become more of a risk taker, and does he need to for the Vikings to contend for a championship? It seems pretty safe to say that the answer to the first question is doubtful. While he will surely cut down on mistakes and take advantage of defensive errors more often as he matures, Ponder has never at any point displayed the temperament necessary to become a truly elite passer. Even if the Vikings improve at the wide receiver position, Ponder will still default to the short game more often than not. Big passing plays will have to come after the catch, which means the Vikings would be well advised to meet Percy Harvin’s contract demands.

Dec 2, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Ryan Pickett (79) tackles Minnesota Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder (7) during the game at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Vikings 23-14. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The answer to the second part of the question is more difficult. Minnesota has constructed its offense around Adrian Peterson and the running game. While Peterson performs at his current historic levels, it’s not necessary for Ponder to become an air raid quarterback. He does need to increase his touchdown efficiency, but probably not by all that much.

Where the Vikings will run into trouble is when Peterson’s production falls off. Only two years away from 30, and with 1,754 carries and a torn ACL already endured, Peterson won’t be the NFL’s pre-eminent running back for that much longer.

When the time comes, Ponder doesn’t project to cover enough of the difference to keep Minnesota’s offense at a Super Bowl contending level. For that forecast to change, Ponder has to make vast improvements this season. Few quarterbacks dramatically change their production after their third year starting.

If it doesn’t happen this year for Ponder, it’s pretty safe to write him off as anything more than a caretaker.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Matthew Stafford has certainly produced more in his bank account than he has on the field. Bruce Kluckhohn-US PRESSWIRE

Each week as the editor of The Lakeland Times, I post some thoughts that fall into a column called “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

Back in 2009 I was abhorred by the amount of money given to then-rookie Matthew Stafford. I guess I feel the same way today.

Here’s what I had to say:

That’s a lot of money
Matthew Stafford gets $42 million guaranteed. Yes folks, that FORTY-TWO MILLION American dollars for the National Football League’s number one pick … guaranteed … without having taken a single snap. That makes him one of the richest players in the entire league. Can you imagine being a teammate of his – someone who has played six or seven years - and making one-quarter of the money? That really lays the groundwork for camaraderie, doesn’t it? It seems things are a bit out of whack.

Chicago Bears new wide receiver Brandon Marshall speaks at a press conference at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-US PRESSWIRE

Brandon Marshall likes to talk big … some might say his actions on the football field should allow him to do so.

But in the end for the Chicago Bears, who just this past week gave away two third round picks for the former Miami Dolphins receiver, may require their new player to eat his words … maybe even without his participation in a single play for his new team.

That’s all dependent on how the league handles discipline for his alleged involvement in striking a woman this past weekend. We all know that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has been consistent in carrying a big stick when it comes to meting out penalties, especially for repeat offenders. Marshall has had several brushes with the law during his career and has been suspended once already – back in 2008 for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.

Marshall, when he was playing for the Denver Broncos, was also involved in the incident that resulted in the shooting death of teammate Darrent Williams – but that significant occurrence is just the tip of Marshall’s brushes with the law. If there’s a loose cannon in the NFL, Marshall is it. He’s become the poster boy for “trouble.” And the Bears seem to have bought into it.

“In due time, the truth will be out, and we’re excited about that,” Marshall is quoted as saying at his introductory press conference today in Chicago. “Given my history, I definitely understand the concern and the questions.”

“Once it has taken its course, I think you will see things totally different, and we’re excited about the process,” Marshall said. “I understand and I get the perception out there. Those are the seeds that I’ve planted early on in my career up until last year.”

He also said that despite the allegations that he punched a woman at a nightclub over the weekend, he believes that when the facts come out he will not be facing any legal problems, or any NFL discipline.

Sure. Where have we heard that before? From just about any and every person who’s ever been accused of a wrongdoing.

This is not an isolated incident. Marshall’s checkered past follows him like stink on a skunk and if he thinks the commissioner is going to take pity on him, he’s in for a rude awakening … and probably a fine at a minimum or possible suspension.

I don’t write this because I’m a Packers fan and he’s been signed by the Bears. I write this because he’s a player that has given the NFL a black eye, much like he allegedly did to the woman last weekend. He’s poison and if the Bears think he’s the answer to their problems at wide receiver, then the organization has issues.

Take a look at Marshall’s Wikipedia page. There is an entire section entitled “Legal,” which details his run-ins with the law. Whether or not he is guilty or not guilty of any of these incidents isn’t the issue – the incident illustrates his character. Does anyone have any reason to believe the Dolphins didn’t unload him because he is a head case? If the Bears think he will be a positive influence in their locker room, maybe they should bring back Sam Hurd to help him out.

Below is the information pulled from his Wiki page.

Legal

According to Orlando-Orange County public records (case 48-2004-MM-012392-O), on Halloween 2004, while a student at UCF, Marshall was arrested in Orlando on charges of assault on a law enforcement officer, refusal to obey, disorderly conduct and resisting an officer.^[57]

On January 1, 2007, Marshall was present at “The Shelter,” a nightclub in Denver, Colorado, along with teammates Javon Walker and Darrent Williams. The trio was attending a birthday party held for and by Denver Nuggets forward Kenyon Martin. As the players were leaving the club in a limousine, Williams was fatally shot in the neck after an unknown assailant opened fire on the vehicle. Willie Clark was later charged with the murder.^[58] Walker has stated in interviews that the shooter was likely a nightclub patron whose motive was retaliation after being involved in an altercation with Marshall’s cousin earlier that night.^[59][60]

On March 26, 2007, Marshall was arrested in the Highlands Ranch suburb of Denver on suspicion of domestic violence after his girlfriend reported that following a domestic dispute, Marshall prevented a taxi she was in from leaving his house.^[61] Charges from the incident were later dismissed on May 25, 2007, after Marshall completed anger management counseling.^[62]

In the early morning of October 22, 2007, Marshall was arrested in the Denver-Aurora metropolitan area at the intersection of 14th and Blake St. for driving under the influence of alcohol.^[63] A trial was scheduled for September 16, but Marshall instead agreed to a plea bargain four days earlier; he pleaded guilty to a reduced charge of driving while ability impaired.^[64] He was sentenced to one-year probation and 24 hours of community service.

On June 12, 2008, Marshall was ticketed for an illegal lane change, then found to be without his license and proof of insurance.^[65] The case was eventually dropped as part of a plea bargain for the October 22, 2007 driving incident involving alcohol.^[64]

According to an article published in the Rocky Mountain News on July 28, 2008, Douglas County deputies fielded “about 11″ calls to Marshall’s home since January 2006. The article stated that one call resulted in Marshall being arrested (the March 26, 2007 domestic dispute), and some did not involve him at all.^[66]

A September 17, 2008 article on CompleteColorado.com stated that the solicitor’s office in Fulton County, Georgia filed misdemeanor battery charges on September 10 for an alleged incident on March 4, 2008, in Atlanta, Georgia. Marshall was booked on March 6, then released the next day after posting a $1,000 cash bond.^[67] The case was assigned to Judge John Mather in Georgia state court.^[68] On August 14, 2009, a jury in Atlanta found Marshall not guilty.^[69]

On March 1, 2009, Marshall was arrested in Atlanta for disorderly conduct after allegedly being involved in a fight with his fiancee, Michi Nogami-Campbell. Marshall was released on a $300 bond.^[70] The charges were dropped the following day.^[71]

On April 23, 2011, Marshall was stabbed near his stomach by his wife, Michi Nogami-Marshall. He was taken to a hospital and was released two days later. He is expected to make a full recovery.^[72][73]

It was later revealed by police that Marshall’s wife did make a brief 911 call, but it only described an unspecified emergency and no mention of a stabbing ever took place. She is charged with aggravated battery with a deadly weapon and is free on $7,500 bail.

In a South Florida Sun-Sentinel article published on July 30, 2011, it was revealed that Marshall was diagnosed with borderline personality disorder at Boston’s McLean Hospital after his incident with Nogami-Campbell.^[74] He is currently pursuing treatment for his mental illness and filming a documentary about his struggle.

On early Sunday, March 11, 2012, two days before his trade to the Bears, Marshall was accused of hitting a woman in the face at a New York club and being involved in a melee. The New York Post stated that Marshall, his wife and some friends were at Marquee when a brawl ensued, and Marshall punched the woman below her left eye, although he may have been attempting to hit the woman’s friends.^[75]

You will find nuggets of valuable tidbits about the Packers, Lions, Bears and Vikings.

Of particular interest is the Vikings dealings in getting a stadium deal finalized. It sounds like a majority of the Minneapolis City Council would like to see the issue go to referendum – something that nearly everyone feels will be defeated.

The Bears officials are talking to Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd and the Lions officials are talking about how to conduct their business without reducing Calvin Johnson’s cap number.

All this and more can be found at Siefert’s blog.

Take a jog on over to his site.

And while you’re at it, don’t forget to Like Lombardiave.com on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.