Aaron Rodgers has won a Super Bowl, Super Bowl MVP Award, and League MVP Award since he signed his last contract in 2008.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

The Green Bay Packers, according to reports today, are ready to offer Aaron Rodgers the bank-breaking contract extension he deserves – the one that should smash the benchmark recently set by Joe Flacco.

Joe Flacco is the National Football League’s highest paid player? C’mon, we like you, Joe, but you are far from the best player in the league. It’s kind of an embarrassment, wouldn’t you say, that Flacco is making more than double that of Rodgers’ piddling $9 million? It’s a travesty.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have dominated the NFC North, including the Chicago Bears the past two seasons, posting a 15-1 divisional record over that time span.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

Maybe Packers officials understand that they need to get something done and they need to do it soon. Clearly, Rodgers is the best player in the league and he is due. His contract was extended in 2008 when he signed a six-year, $65 million contract with $20 million guaranteed. For the time, that was a great deal, one that made everyone happy.

But five years have gone by and the bar has been raised – a lot. Since 2008, Rodgers has won a Super Bowl, a Super Bowl MVP Award and a league MVP Award. The Packers have won two straight NFC North Division championships, posting a 15-1 record among division rivals over that stretch.

Rodgers win and now it’s time for the team to reward him for his efforts.

Mike Florio of profootballtalk.com wrote today that a league source has said that Rodgers wait for an extension will soon be over.

“It is his time,” the source told Florio.

But Rodgers isn’t the only player who will soon be joining the $100 million club. League officials say that Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tony Romo will also soon join the club. League financial experts also see the gold standard rise incrementally with each new contract. With Flacco’s contracting ringing in at about $21 million, it’s expected that whomever signs next will top that  total with others following with deals in the same range, if not more.

Aaron Rodgers is in command of the Packers and his future.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

Here is a breakdown of recent contract extensions for quarterbacks beginning with the deal Flacco just signed and extending back to 2004, courtesy of the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

–MARCH 2013: Baltimore’s Joe Flacco signed a six-years, $120.6 million contract with $52 million guaranteed.

–FEB. 2013: New England’s Tom Brady signed a five-year, $60 million contact that is fully guaranteed.

—JULY 2012: New Orleans’ Drew Brees signed a five-years, $100 million contact with $40 million guaranteed.

–MARCH 2011: Denver’s Peyton Manning signed a five-year, $96 million contract with between $18 million to $60 million guaranteed.

–OCT. 2011: Oakland’s Carson Palmer signed a four-year, $43 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed.

—AUG. 2009: New York’s Eli Manning signed a six-year, $106.9 million contract with the Giants. A total of $35 million was guaranteed.

–AUG. 2009: San Diego’s Philip Rivers signed seven-year, $98.25 million contract with $38.15 million guaranteed.

–APRIL 2009: Detroit’s Matthew Stafford signed a six-year, $72 million contact with $41.5 million guaranteed.

–OCT. 2008: Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers signed a six-year, $65 million contract with $20 million guaranteed.

–MAY 2008: Atlanta’s Matt Ryan signed a six-year, $72 million contract with $34.75 million guaranteed.

–OCT. 2007: Dallas’ Tony Romo signed a six-year, $67.4 million contract, with $30 million guaranteed.

—DEC. 2004: Atlanta’s Michael Vick signed a 10-year, $130 million contract with $37 million guaranteed.

Aaron Rodgers gets a pass off under the pressure of San Francisco 49er Aldon Smith. Rodgers knows his payday is coming, but has played without complaint and won’t hold out when the new deal comes due.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

The big news last week about Baltimore Ravens‘ quarterback Joe Flacco’s $120 million contract was watched closely by Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and all in his camp for good reason – the Packers’ signal caller is due a new contract within the year (though he has two years left on his current deal) and for sure wanted to see the numbers being sent Flacco’s way.

Joe Flacco
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

With that in mind, Mike Freeman of CBS Sports reported today that Rodgers has no plans of holding out. That’s a good thing, considering the Packers’ next in line is Graham Harrell - not your most trusted backup.

While the news is notable, it’s not surprising to me. Why would Rodgers hold out? He’s had a good relationship with Packers brass and coaches, he’s never complained about his contract and has even said that he was very happy with the extension he received back in 2008. At the time, it made him a rich man and offered him a comfortable living.

So, today’s news that he said he wouldn’t hold out is what we’ve all come to expect from Rodgers – a humble man who knows the Packers will be fair in their next go-around at negotiations. Yes, he probably wants to be noted as one of the best at his profession, and I’m sure he wants to be compensated rightly. That’s to be expected.

Here’s what Freeman had to say today:

Sources close to Rodgers describe the quarterback as concerned about his contract situation with the Packers , but he isn’t yet prepared to hold out this offseason or this summer, if a new deal isn’t reached.

Sure, that could change, but it seems Rodgers wants no part of a holdout. There is also the belief in the Rodgers camp that one won’t be needed and both sides will reach an agreement on a new deal.

“He paid close attention to the money Joe Flacco received,” a source close to Rodgers explained, “but there’s no anger. He’s not planning to hold out.”

Aaron Rodgers is concerned about his new contract, but understands things will work themselves out.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

Rodgers understands that he’s one of 53 on the roster and the money has to be spread equitably. His share will come in good time.

All we ask is that Rodgers not be consumed by all the talk and that he goes about his business like he always has.

After all, championships tend to raise the stock and value of players who achieve them – just ask Joe Flacco.

Jan 12, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter of the NFC divisional round playoff game at Candlestick Park. Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

It was announced today that Baltimore Ravens‘ Super Bowl-winning, Super Bowl XLVII MVP quarterback Joe Flacco would be rewarded grandly for his perfect playoff efforts with a new contract that will not only make him the highest paid player in the National Football League, but will be felt all the way to Green Bay, especially by Aaron Rodgers.

Aaron Rodgers is ready to cash in.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

It’s reported that Flacco will be making a bit more than New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who signed a $20 million per year contract last fall. Flacco will sign a formal contract Monday that’s set to pay him $20.1 million per year for six years.

Flacco was expected to break the bank after leading the Ravens to a Super Bowl victory last month. In that game against a San Francisco 49ers team that had dominated in its run through the NFC, Flacco connected on 22-of-33 passes for 287 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. Though the Niners came back and nearly pulled out a victory late in this Super Bowl, the Ravens’ goal line stand saved the day and helped lead to Flacco’s MVP.

Joe Flacco
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

So, what does this mean for Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers? Well, it will mean tens of millions of dollars per year. Rodgers’ extended contract he signed a few years ago comes due in the coming year and he’s surely to benefit greatly. Rodgers, who is also a Super Bowl winner and MVP, wants to play at least another eight years and retire a Packer. No doubt, the Packers want that, too. So it looks like Rodgers will be negotiating another extension that’s going to pay him at least $20 million per year. He’s currently making $9 million per year – grossly underpaid for the production he has provided his team.

In five years as a starter, Rodgers has missed only two games – one because of a concussion and the other because he was rested on the final game of the 2011 season. During those five years as a starter, Rodgers has completed 1,726 passes out of 2,665 attempts (65.7 percent), for 21,661 yards, and 171 touchdowns.

Over that same time span, Flacco has played in every game. He has completed 1,507 passes in 2,489 attempts (60.5 percent), for 17,663 yards, and 102 touchdowns.

Yes, Flacco had an amazing run through the NFL Playoffs this past season – a near-perfect run at that – but Rodgers had a similar experience in 2010 when the Packers were the sixth seed and won four straight road games en route to their Super Bowl XLV win.

If one looks at statistics alone, we can understand why Aaron Rodgers is smiling today. He’s got the world in his hand and, based on how Flacco was rewarded today, has every reason to believe that his future reward will be more than he could possibly imagine.

Joe Flacco’s career statistics …

Aaron Rodgers’ career statistics …

Jan 12, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) is pursued by Green Bay Packers linebacker Erik Walden (93) on a 56-yard touchdown run in the NFC divisional round playoff game at Candlestick Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Packers fans know all too well why Colin Kaepernick is the newest, most exciting player on the NFL scene and the reason he’s made it to the Super Bowl. He ripped apart the Packers defense in the Divisional round of the Playoffs and then did just enough damage against the Falcons to help the San Francisco 49ers win the NFC Championship.

It’s the uncertainty that Kaepernick brings to the game. Defenses have not had enough time to figure out exactly how to contain this guy and the pistol offense. While his legs scare the heck out of defensive coordinators, it’s his arm that can really do damage if defenses pen him in. If the defensive backfield lets the Niner receivers get open, Kaepernick will find them.

While defenses will catch up with this offense by plugging in the right defensive players in the right spots, it has not happened yet – just ask Dom Capers. It won’t happen in Sunday’s Super Bowl either.

Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, MA, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) during the AFC Championship game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The Ravens defeated the Patriots 28-13. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

I think Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco will show his pedestrian side against the hard-charging 49ers pass rush, while Kaepernick gets enough attempts to throw the Ravens’ defense into a spin.

In the end, it will be the Niners’ combination of run and pass that will be the difference and it will be Kaepernick’s smarts and physical abilities that will outshine Flacco.

The Ravens keep it close, but the Niners have at least one more big play in their bag of tricks than does Baltimore.

Niners 26 Ravens 23

First, in early May, running back Kevin Smith wrote that the Lions will be in the playoffs. Wow.

I won’t make a prediction about how many games we’re going to win, but I will say this: We will definitely make the playoffs this season.

Believe it or not we weren’t far off last year. Almost every game we could have won, we were one play or one player short. Except for Tennessee on Thanksgiving, they just came out and beat us to sleep. They manhandled us, but nobody else did.

Okay, now get all that laughter out.

I’m not totally sure what to think about this.  Part of me likes it.  It’s confidence and a little swagger on a team that had neither last season.  On the other hand, it is rather ridiculous to say that an 0-16 team that has an innumerable amount of weaknesses will turn around and be playing in January 2010.  I just don’t really see it happening.

There is hope for the Lions though.  The 2008 season saw the Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and Baltimore Ravens all get into the playoffs, showing extreme improvements from dismal 2007 seasons.  This leaves hope for the Lions, especially the fact that Miami came off of a 1-15 season.  However, I see that type of improvement coming more from the Kansas City Chiefs of Seattle Seahawks than the Detroit Lions.

Cliff Avril was a little more judicious in his prediction for the 2009 season.

As for us making the playoffs, I think that is very, very possible. I’m definitely right with Kevin, we have a good enough team. Now it’s all about getting out there and proving it.

Our defense has a lot of new guys like Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, guys who have been in the playoffs and won Super Bowls and know how to win. Larry hasn’t brought out his Super Bowl ring yet, hopefully he’ll do it sometime during the season and we’ll get a few wins.

That sounds more like a guy who knows what’s up.  A “few wins” is a lot more realistic than the playoffs right now.  As for the Lions having a “good enough team,” I don’t think I can roll with that.  Daunte Culpepper is serviceable at best, and it’s hard to tell if he’s even serviceable anymore.  Matthew Stafford has all the potential and Mel Kiper, Jr. hair-grease all over him, but he’s a rookie quarterback, and rookie quarterbacks don’t typically come in and play well.  Some might point to Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan from last year, but they both had great situations.  Flacco had a great defense that didn’t make him do too much on offense and Ryan had a strong running game with Michael Turner, which took a lot of the pressure off of him as well.  Stafford has Smith.  Much work to be done.

It’s nice to see some swagger and confidence in Detroit after watching last year’s pitiful 0-16 season, but I’m still predicting a Packers sweep when the season gets started.

First off, Ravens fans can’t blame the referees for losing this game.  Yes, the referees missed two huge calls: the roughing the kicker call after Mitch Berger fell on his butt when Edgar Jones just happened to be lying on the ground next to him and Ryan Clark‘s helmet-to-helmet hit on Willis McGahee.  More on the second one later.  But a blind monkey could have made that first call.  The ridiculousness of that call is unspeakable.  So for once I will side with the Ravens fans.  But your team didn’t lose because the referees and the NFL are out to get you.  Take some solace and go cry in your Natty Boh over that one.

Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed are two of the top safeties in the NFL today, but Polamalu showed on Sunday why he should be considered the premier safety in the NFL.  Polamalu outplayed Reed, bad calf and all.  The Steelers schemed against Reed perfectly, and his name was only called by Jim Nantz a few times.  The Ravens schemed against Polamalu, but he still found ways to get himself involved in the play of the game, notably in the fourth quarter when he read Joe Flacco‘s eyes perfectly and stepped in for the pick, and made a very Reed-like return for the touchdown to seal the game for Pittsburgh.  After seeing Reed v. Polamalu in the AFC and Brian Dawkins v. Adrian Wilson in the NFC, we get Polamalu v. Wilson in the Super Bowl, which promises to be another great safety matchup.

I love the Pittsburgh wide receivers.  Starting with Hines Ward, and right down through Limas Sweed.  They play the game the way it is supposed to be played.  They can catch.  They can run.  And most of all, they can block.  The attitude comes straight from Ward who isn’t afraid to hit somebody.  I don’t call his play dirty at all.  He does his job for his teammates and plays until the whistle is blown.  When defensive players complain about the way he plays the game, it just sounds like they don’t want to get hit.  Those defensive players can dish the pain, they just can’t take it.  Sweed is a notable example.  After having a sure touchdown catch bounce off his fingertips, Sweed came back a few plays later and delivered an absolutely crushing block on Corey Ivy to help spring tight end Heath Miller for extra yardage.  My friend & I DVR’d that play at least five times.  It was a clean block and that’s what coaches want their wide receivers to be doing.  You can’t complain with the way they play.  Santonio Holmes is a speedster.  His early touchdown catch was an absolute thing of beauty.  He shows great instincts on the run after the catch and on punt returns.  He fits the mold of the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson, although he was better size than Jackson.  The Steelers wide receivers are probably one of the most underrated crews in the league.

My hat goes off to Joe Flacco.  At the beginning of the season, I did not think they would be able to get anywhere with him at quarterback.  Well I was wrong.  He showed maturity and poise beyond his years this whole season in dealing with a city still smarting from the Kyle Boller debacle.  Flacco said all the right things and did all the right things this whole season and showed that he is indeed a good guy.  I don’t chalk up his loss to the Steelers as a rookie choking on the big stage; I see it as a quarterback running into a tough defense that schemed against him perfectly.  Kerry Collins or Phillip Rivers would not have been that successful against the defense that Dick LeBeau put out there.  Flacco gives the Ravens security at quarterback they have never had before.  All they have to do is add a big play wide receiver and they’re good to go on offense for years to come with Flacco, Le’Ron McClain, Ray Rice, and the emerging Mark Clayton.

I mentioned Ryan Clark’s hit on Willis McGahee earlier and I come back to it here.  I have to say that was one of the scariest things I have ever seen on a football field.  I immediately froze after that hit.  It was great to see the response from the medical staff and the players on both sides.  McGahee is in my prayers and it was great to hear that he was talking and moving around late last night.  That being said, there definitely should have been a flag thrown on that play for a helmet-to-helmet collision.  The NFL said they were going crack down on helmet-to-helmet hits recently, but I have not seen that happen one bit.  With the way the players are playing now, it’s getting way too dangerous not to call those penalties.  Football is football.  Guys are going to get hurt.  Guys are going to lead with their helmets.  They won’t always be able to remember that they aren’t supposed to lead with their helmets.  But if it is in the rule book, it should be enforced.  The hit on McGahee was especially brutal, with the way his head snapped back after the impact.  It looked more like he got hit by a car than another player.

I was impressed by the way the Steelers played against a tough Ravens team Sunday night; but I’m still rooting for the Cardinals.

Matchups To Watch

Colts Wide Receivers vs. Packers Defensive Backs

The Packers defensive backfield has been shaken up in recent weeks while Marvin Harrison has shown he is back, totally owning up on Chris McAlister in last week’s game.  Charles Woodson better leave his McAlister-impression at home.  Reggie Wayne is in the league’s top three receivers on any given week, while Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark are dangerous out of the slot.  Basically any wide receiver or tight end put out their by the Colts can easily be hit by Peyton Manning and should be considered dangerous.  Atari Bigby is doubtful for the Packers while Woodson and rookie Pat Lee are listed as probable.  They will need to be on top of their game to shut down this potent passing attack.

Packers Defensive Line vs. Colts Offensive Line

One of the best ways to get to Manning is to knock him around and harass him to force him to not get the ball if when he wants to.  Baltimore could not get to him last week and he was given all day, so it is imperative that he does not get all day to stand around.  This gets harder for the Packers, as Cullen Jenkins is done for the year, Jason Hunter is doubtful, Michael Montgomery is doubtful, and Ryan Pickett is questionable.  This leaves it up to Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to put the squeeze on Manning.  And even then, KGB is not the sure thing he once was.

Packers Offensive Line vs. Colts Defense

Aaron Rodgers isn’t Joe Flacco, but the Packers need to keep Rodgers upright for good to happen.  Rodgers will need time to get the ball to Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, but he can’t do that with Dwight Freeney in his face.  He needs to be standing for the Packers to win.

My player to watch is rookie wide receiver Jordy Nelson.  The Colts secondary is mildly banged up and James Jones is listed as doubtful for the game, giving the rookie from Kansas State a chance to shine.

The Verdict: Colts 27, Packers 24

Presumably, the Packers don’t really want Favre back after all that’s happened. Essentially, their message is they aren’t going to free him to sign with any of the league’s other 31 teams — especially not NFC North division rivals Minnesota, Chicago or Detroit — and he won’t be given his starting job back if he returns to Green Bay.

The most likely scenario would have Favre petitioning the league for reinstatement and the Packers trading him to an AFC team, or at least an NFC team outside the division. Among the teams that fit that profile are the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins.

The Packers’ best-case scenario, in which Favre would’ve simply stayed retired, almost certainly won’t happen. The Packers went so far as to send an intermediary down to Mississippi last week to try to talk Favre into staying retired, but their attempt failed.

The Wisconsin State Journal’s article puts serious contenders for Favre out there for the first time in a while. But would these really help Brett Favre? He obviously wants to go to a contender and the Minnesota Vikings are rumored to be his top choice (which means he’s looking to follow Darren Sharper and Ryan Longwell), but Minnesota most likely isn’t going to happen. Do these really give Favre a chance to be a winner though?

The Miami Dolphins were 1-15 last year and are starting from the ground up. They have a new coach in Tony Sparano and a new head man in Bill Parcells. If Favre wants to win, Miami would probably not be the best option. Parcells and Sparano are getting reputations as strictly business, given their run-in with superstar-turned-wanna-be-actor Jason Taylor. A Taylor-for-Favre swap is pretty intriguing, but I don’t think that’s what Taylor wants and Favre wants a winner, but I don’t see the Dolphins turning into playoff contenders right away. Right now, John Beck, Chad Henne, and Josh McCown are the quarterbacks on the roster for the Dolphins. Beck started last year and had a lot of trouble adjusting to the pro-game. He could have been Cam Cameron‘s quarterback of the future, but with Parcells coming in, his future is up in the air. Parcells used a high draft pick on Henne, who could be Parcells’ “guy” while McCown is the veteran in the mix. McCown also happens to be a friend of the Packers family, along with Nathan Poole, for knocking the Vikings out and Packers into the playoffs in (I think) 2003. God, I love opening old wounds. So the Dolphins do not look that likely if Favre wants to win. If he wants to play and end up on MediCare, he can go for it.

The Baltimore Ravens would be the worst situation for me besides an NFC North team. I may be in the Baltimore area, but I do not like the Ravens. Besides the personal anguish this would cost me, the Ravens cannot quite afford Favre. Right now the Packers have 2008 first round pick Joe Flacco, 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, and bust Kyle Boller. The Ravens are also reeling from the Steve McNair-era where they were at the mercy of an aging quarterback on the downside of his career. I have read many columnists in the Baltimore-area newspapers, and it’s clear they do not want Favre. They know that on the heels of a 5-11 season that they need to rebuild and devote time and confidence to either Flacco or Smith, something they did not do with Boller. The only way to get their quarterbacks better and to put themselves in a position to win in the future would be to let Flacco and Smith play and become experienced.

I pretty much covered the Chiefs, one of the most inept franchises in history. But they can still have fantasies. Like this one. And this one. And finally this one.

The Jets are intriguing. Favre is older than head coach Eric Mangini. Kellen Clemens looks like he could be a good quarterback if he is given time to play, which wouldn’t happen if Favre joined the team. Chad Pennington is still on the team and he has had some pretty good moments in his time in the Big Apple. I’m no Jets expert, but this scenario is pretty mysterious. Who knows here. I just don’t know whether Favre would want to play for a team coming off a losing season.

It seems like every year Sports Illustrated picks the Panthers to win the Super Bowl. But it doesn’t happen. They are mired in the .500-ball heave that is the NFC South. The team does not have many offensive weapons outside of Steve Smith and at times last year, it seemed like they could not do anything right. Sure, they played in Super Bowl XXXVIII. But that feels like ancient history.  Also, the Panthers seems set with Jake Delhomme as their signal caller.

Tampa Bay is quarterback heaven. Jon Gruden is apparently tight with Favre because of the days of the Holmgren regime.  But seriously, how many quarterbacks on the roster?  Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Luke McCown, Chris Simms, and rookie Josh Johnson.  They’ve got about every type in there.  Let’s add aging-gunslinger to that category.  The Bucs won the division in 2007, but the fact that they won it at 9-7 leaves no guarantee for them to be a winner in 2008.  Not seeing Favre here.

The Redskins are another interesting possibility.  They’ve got plenty of money (aka Dan Snyder) and a young quarterback in Jason Campbell.  The Redskins know what they are doing with Campbell by letting him play last year.  The only reason a player can get better is by playing.  And he got better as the season went on before he got hurt and Todd Collins led the team to the playoffs.  The Skins have been down this road before with Mark Brunell.  I don’t think that worked too well.

So there we have it.  I’d say Favre doesn’t have any really good options out there.  Anywhere he went (Minnesota included) he would get in the way of the development of a team.