With NFL free agency news slowing to a trickle, it’s time to turn our attention to the next phase of the offseason cycle  - the NFL Draft.

The 2013 NFL Draft is less than a month away, so I called friend and draftnik Greg Trippiedi to help answer five questions about this year’s draft class. Greg has covered the draft for more than a decade, and his work is one of the best reads on the Internet.

Now, without further delay, here’s our Q&A:

What player drafted outside of the top 10 will end up playing like one, ala Clay Matthews?

Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Alec Ogletree does a defensive drill during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn: Alec Ogletree and it’s not close. His off the field troubles have been well documented, but they’re not kind of problems that tend to keep players off the field. His coaches at Georgia say he was never a problem in their locker room, and he has the reputation as a hard worker. While that doesn’t guarantee Ogletree will fix his problems, those types of players usually turn things around. If you judge him based solely on football concerns, Ogletree has top tier athleticism for his position and makes all the plays an elite inside linebacker should. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that in a few years Ogletree is in the same discussion with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman for best at the position.

Southern California Trojans receiver Robert Woods (2) is pursued by Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Chris Salvi (24) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Trippiedi: I’m going to give you two names here, both playing the same position: wide receivers Robert Woods of USC, and Keenan Allen of Cal.  I think Tavon Austin is the best offensive specialist in the draft, but Woods and Allen are top ten level players who will be available after the 16th pick in the first round.  Both are fluid athletes who can score from anywhere on the field, and really high point the football on 50/50 balls despite neither really being viewed as much of a height/weight/speed specimen.  Plus, I feel more comfortable projecting receivers than I do defensive pass rushers. But as a footnote to the last comment, I think the player that reminds me the most of Matthews coming out of USC is Jarvis Jones of Georgia.  And he’s likely to be available when Green Bay picks.

What player drafted in the early rounds is most likely to get a general manager fired?

Jason: Ah, the commemorative “who would Scott Pioli draft?” category. The answer is Mike Glennon. Drafting a quarterback early is nearly always a career defining move for a general manager. Making the wrong choice is a surefire way to earn the selector a one-way ticket out of town. While evaluating any player comes with considerable challenges, quarterbacks present many additional hurdles for general managers.

Senior Bowl north squad quarterback Mike Glennon of North Carolina State (8) throws against the Senior Bowl south squad. Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Here’s where Glennon could end some poor GM’s tenure. With his rocket arm producing high volume yardage and touchdowns, Glennon cuts the figure of the perfect pocket passer. In a year where there is little agreement regarding the best quarterback, Glennon stands out to some teams with his traditional drop back passer capabilities. What seems to get lost in the shuffle is Glennon’s lack of accuracy and passing discipline. Watching his tape, it’s clear Glennon’s never seen a double covered receiver he didn’t like. Glennon is too trusting in his arm strength, leading to 29 interceptions over the past two seasons. Those mistakes will only be magnified in the pros.

Brigham Young Cougars defensive lineman Ziggy Ansah does lineman dirlls during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Greg: Assuming that “whoever Jeff Ireland drafts” isn’t an option here? No? Darn. With the easy answer off the board, it’s worth pointing out that the only picks that are directly responsible for getting GMs fired are quarterbacks, and no quarterback in this class is getting overdrafted.  So this is a very safe draft to be a GM.  There are two buyer beware players at the top of the first round who will be overdrafted on potential: LB Dion Jordan of Oregon, and DE Ziggy Ansah of BYU.  And it’s not that either won’t be good players.  But if I’m oh, I don’t know, Martin Mayhew or Mike Lombardi, I’d feel much better going with Kenny Vaccaro or Dee Milliner than I would with Ansah or Jordan.  Probably buys me an extra year on the job.

Ireland can take whomever he wants to at this point.  I don’t think anything can save him now.

Five years from now, who is the best quarterback from the 2013 draft class?

Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) is pressured by Oregon Ducks linebacker Tyson Coleman (33) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Jason: In five years, I think a lot of people will be wondering how their team let Matt Barkley slip past them. That’s not to say he’ll become the next Aaron Rodgers, because that wouldn’t be reasonable or fair. However, Barkley possesses enough characteristics of a successful quarterback to negate his shortcomings. The arm strength issue is overblown. Barkley has already demonstrated the ability to make the difficult out throws. What’s often overlooked is Barkley’s decision-making. As a freshman, he completed nearly 60 percent of his passes while throwing for 2,735 yards and 7.8 yards per attempt. That’s better than most of this year’s quarterback draft pool. Barkley’s best year was as a junior, where he was extremely efficient (5.6 touchdown to interception ratio, 69.1 percent completion) and extremely productive (3,528 passing yards, 39 touchdowns). That year is closer to the real Matt Barkley than his “down” 2012.

Right now, Barkley is viewed as a late first round selection (though we’ll address this more later). If that holds true, he’ll be given what few highly-drafted quarterbacks ever receive: time. It’s easy to see how a four-year starter who gets a year or two to build up his body and knowledge of the offense could flourish. Hopefully for Barkley, this is how his career plays out.

West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) drops back to pass against the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. West Virginia defeated Iowa State 31-24. Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Greg: Geno Smith is the correct answer here, no?  He’s going to get the most chances. Thing is, it’s probably the kind of year where you want to take the field.  Someone is coming out from deep in the draft to make an impact as a starter.

And this isn’t really a prediction, but I think that given the five year time frame you allow here, Landry Jones could disappear off the face of the earth just long enough to re-emerge as a starting quarterback in this league, not dissimilar to what happened to Matt Moore in the 2007 draft.  With a player like Jones, you just have to think that his weaknesses as a college quarterback became so obvious to scouts over the last two seasons that whatever team gets him in camp is probably going to try to stash him away on the roster for a few years, at which point, they’ll be left with a guy who was sacked less than 1 in 40 college pass attempts and completed 63.6 percent of his college passes.

In the meantime, the answer is Geno Smith.

Who is the first quarterback off the board, and which team selects them?

Jason: The answer is Geno Smith, right now. Remember, Matt Barkley didn’t work out at the combine and has yet to have his pro day. While pre-draft work shouldn’t affect draft stock as much as it does, we’ve seen time and time again how a good workout can propel players to higher selections. And when’s the last time a quarterback had a bad pro day workout? Hint: never.

So the question becomes whether a team that runs a west coast-style offense will draft a passer before a team that wants a little more mobility and athleticism from their quarterback does. Oakland is the x-factor, as they’ll legitimately consider Geno Smith at the third pick. If they pass, the next team that might go quarterback is Arizona. The Cardinals are better suited for Barkley’s skill set.

So in the end I give you two scenarios: Smith to Oakland or Barkley to Arizona.

Greg: Geno Smith will be the first quarterback taken, and he’s going between pick no. 2 and pick no. 4 in this draft.  I think Jacksonville has a 30 percent chance of taking him with the second pick.  Oakland has a 45 percent chance of taking him with the third pick, if he’s available.  And then I really don’t think he gets past Philadelphia with the fourth pick.  It’s hard to put a plurality on this because looking at the overall percentages I just used, it breaks down to something like 30-30-30-10 as to where Smith lands, so I’m going to split the difference and say the Raiders will take him at third overall.  I’m 100 percent sure this will happen 30 percent of the time.

The interesting scenarios come if Jacksonville takes Smith at no. 2, because I think that puts Matt Barkley in play for the Raiders at 3.  You can’t have percentages on that event.  Absolutely not.

Finally, put yourself in the shoes of Ted Thompson. Of the players reasonably likely to be available when the Green Bay Packers pick, who would you select and why?

Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman D.J. Fluker does bag drills during Alabama pro day at the Mal M. Moore Athletic Facility. Kelly Lambert-USA TODAY Sports

Jason: This question really is “who is the best player available at the Packers’ selection?” I think there’s a decent chance Alabama right tackle D.J. Fluker is still on the board at 26. If he is, I can’t imagine a better selection. Fluker is a mammoth tackle who created giant holes for three 1,000 yard rushers the past two years. Read that again, three 1,000 yard rushers in two years. Most of those runs came behind Fluker, who is one of the strongest linemen in the draft. With Fluker lining up next to Josh Sitton, the Packers would have the ability to run effectively for the first time in years. This would also free Bryan Bulaga, the team’s best tackle, to move to the left side where he played so well at Iowa. Green Bay could reasonably go from the second most sacked team to the top third of the league.

I also think it’s likely that if no great value exists at 26, Ted Thompson will trade back. The strength of this draft class is in the second and third rounds. Smart teams will be swinging trades to maximize their selections in those rounds.

Akron Zips quarterback Clayton Moore (8) runs during the first quarter as FIU Golden Panthers defensive back Jonathan Cyprien (25) prepares to make the tackle in the game at InfoCision Stadium. Eric P. Mull-USA TODAY Sports

Greg: I think the two players who make the most sense for the Packers (but there’s at least a chance one if not both will not be there) are TE Tyler Eifert of Notre Dame, and FS Jonathan Cyprien of Florida International.  In the modern NFL, you have to be good in the middle of the field.  I think the Packers are perfectly well off at the tight end and safety positions for 2013, but the NFC is getting into an arms race for the kind of talent that can create scoring opportunities (Eifert) and limit scoring opportunities (Cyprien), and I don’t see the Packers being in a position to pass either of these first-rounders if available when they select in round one.

Today’s contributors:

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Greg Trippiedi writes about the Washington Redskins at Redskins Hog Heaven and runs LiveBall Sports which covers current events in sports with a slant toward sports analytics and the business side of the sports world.  His teams go to the playoffs sometimes, which is a refreshing change from most years when they do not win anything. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/GTrippiedi.

Nov 19, 2011; Stanford CA, USA; California Golden Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (21) catches a pass over Stanford Cardinal cornerback Johnson Bademosi (27) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday’s news that the Green Bay Packers were poised to make good on a contract extension for quarterback Aaron Rodgers was met with smiles across Packers Nation – if it is indeed true, that will be a great day.

Today, Chris Canty, a free agent released recently by the New York Giants, will be at 1265 Lambeau Avenue for a visit with the Packers. Anytime a free agent pays a visit to Green Bay, that’s also big news. We’ll be watching any developments with that situation closely,

But in the meantime, we continue to focus on the Draft  with today’s daily Big 3.

Here’s is the March 4 Big 3

Here’s is the March 3 Big 3

Here’s is the March 2 Big 3

Here’s is the March 1 Big 3

Here’s the Feb. 28 Big 3

Here’s the Feb. 27 Big 3

We here at lombardiave.com have been scouring the Internet in search of mock drafts to include in our Big 3 – three different mocks with three different selections. As we move along with each passing day, it gets more difficult to find mocksters who aren’t projecting the same selections … but we continue to find those  who have differing projections. Some of you may think these guys are crazy for their picks, but it certainly makes the comment section a lively read.

So, we turn to our Big 3 selected today by Draftbreakdown.com’s Jimmy O’Brien, Draftbreakdown.com’s Jon Dove, and Blake over at Newnfldraft.com.

Jimmy O’Brien of Draftbreakdown.com projects the Green Bay Packers first round selection as …

Kawann Short (DT) Purdue  

With the release of Charles Woodson, and the revolving door at running back, The Pack are sure to add talent in both the offensive and defensive backfields.  However, in round one, the better value is at defensive tackle, where Short is a stout, sturdy run defender, who is sneaky quick as a pass rusher.  Short joins 2012 draftees Jerel Worthy and Nick Perry, forming an impressive infusion of young talent to go along with Clay Matthews along the front in Titletown.

Lombardiave: Kawann Short is an interesting selection for the Packers and would offer a possible solution to the lack of depth the team is experiencing this offseason. With it a fact that Jerel Worthy probably won’t make it back onto the field until the halfway mark of 2013, if then, it’s important that the Packers shore up its D-line. Ted Thompson is making those attempts through free agency this offseason, but that’s always problematic, so if the Packers can also add depth with someone like Short in the draft, that would be a plus. The 6-3 300-pounder from Purdue might be one of those who will be on the board at 26 and he’s the best player in Thompson’s eye, don’t be surprised by this pick.

Here’s a video of Kawann Short …

Blake of The New NFL Draft projects the Packers first round selection as …

Keenan Allen, Wide Receiver, California.

Greg Jennings is a free agent and Jones, Cobb, and Nelson are not number one receivers’ with Allen’s hands and route running he is a legit number 1 receiver and will make the Packer’s offense even better.

Lombardiave: Yes, the Packers already have depth at the receiver position, but like defensive backs, one can never have a shortage of quality recovers in this pass-happy league and especially on this pass-happy team. The losses of Greg Jennings to free agency and Donald Driver to retirement leaves the Packers short of experience and production – at least as far as Jennings goes. Allen is a huge talent – so huge that I just don’t see him available at this point in the draft. However, stranger things have happened in the past, but I frankly don’t see Allen getting through the first 25 picks without some wide receiver-hungry team snatching him up. The Vikings come to mind. But if he were still on the board, I would expect this pick to be a no-brainer for Thompson. Allen is a speedster who goes and gets the ball. Great hands, great speed and a natural fit to the Packers system. He’s a definite first-rounder. I just don’s see him still on the board for the Packers.

 Here’s a video of Keenan Allen …

Jon Dove of Draft Breakdown projects the Green Bay Packers first round pick as …

Dallas Thomas – OG/OT – Tennessee

In order for the Packers to sustain their success, they must do everything possible to protect Aaron Rodgers.

Lombardiave: Dove is correct – the Packers have got to add depth along the offensive line and he would be an excellent choice – and may be one of those players still on the board at 26. However, he may also be one of those players who may still be on the board in the second round for the Packers to pluck up at that point. If the Packers are going to select an offensive lineman, I still think that they would go with someone who might be able to slide into the center position. Yes, Evan Dietrich-Smith is penciled into that spot, but he’s got to earn it. He finished out the season starting for the Packers at center, but didn’t burn up the field doing it. Would Thomas be one of those players who might compete for a guard or center spot? Maybe, but that’s Thompson’s call. I would rather see the Packers go with a Jonathan Cooper, Barrett Jones or even D.J. Fluker if they are going to go with an offensive lineman with this first round selection.

Here’s a video of Dallas Thomas …

Jan 7, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish tight end Tyler Eifert (80) catches a pass against Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Ha

A sampling of today’s NFL Mock Drafts for the Green Bay Packers takes me to highlight three mocks that provide us with projections for three different picks:

JOSH NORRIS of rotoworld.com:

Josh gives us safety Matt Elam of Florida.

Charlie Campbell of Walterfootball.com:

Charlie projects wide receiver Keenan Allen of California

 

 

 

 

Walterfootball.com gives us tight end Tyler Eifert of Notre Dame.

Florida Gators defensive back Matt Elam (22) Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

Interesting picks, I must say. Where’s the defensive lineman? Where’s the running back? Where’s the offensive lineman. While Ted Thompson will have the final say, everyone most recently has projected Barrett Jones as the best fit for the Packers. He’s a blue collar, intelligent football player who can man at least three different spots along the line – a factor that we know TT likes.

However, a lis franc foot injury that required surgery just before the Combine may have resulted in Jones slipping in the draft. In fact, the Packers may still have a shot at him in the second or third round, which makes these three projections even more interesting.

Looking at Norris’s pick of Elam, he admits he’s not sold on the safety, but admits there are many who are. Elam has been compared to 49ers safety Donte Whitner, an apt comparison because “Elam has played in the slot but is on the small side and struggles in coverage at times as a result.”

California Golden Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (21).
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sold on this pick either, especially as a first-rounder.

However, looking at the other two picks here – Keenan Allen and Tyler Eifert – I like them. With the Packers most likely losing Greg Jennings to free agency, the pick of a receiver here would be smart. However, it’s not like TT to draft a receiver this high. He usually waits until at least the second or third round to consider the wideout.

Allen may be too good to pass up, however. With good size, 6-2, 215 pounds, Allen is built for success, especially if he’s teamed up with someone like Aaron Rodgers. The connection could be dynamic.

The same could be said about Eifert. The Golden Domer is another solid receiver with impressive size and speed. He is 6-6, 251 pounds and ran the 40 at the Combine in 4.68 seconds; had 22 reps in the bench press; jumped 35.5 inches in the vertical leap; broad jumped 119 inches; ran a 6.92 in the three-cone drill; 4.32 in the 20 yard shuffle; and a 11.52-second in the 60-yard shuffle. Those were all bests among this year’s tight ends.

So, what are your thoughts on these three projections?

Should the Packers go D-line? O-line? Running back?

Throw some of your own projections our way.

 

Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in attendance before Super Bowl XLVII between the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL Combine edition of the FanSided 2013 NFL Mock Draft has been released.

The fine folks over at FanSided.com do a new mock draft every week right up until the actual draft in April, and we at LombardiAve.com have plenty of offseason information to pass along to our readers. Many of the players we’ve mentioned in previous mock draft posts will be working out and we’ll get a good opportunity to eyeball them and see how they’ll perform.

Draft positions are set save for the Super Bowl participants. Barring a trade, the Green Bay Packers will make their first selection with the 26^th pick.

Nov 3, 2012; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats linebacker Arthur Brown (4) during a 44-30 win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

According to FanSided, with the 26^th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Arthur Brown, Linebacker, Kansas State

Analysis: The Packers linebacker depth chart leaves a lot to be desired and it can immediately be improved if Green Bay decides to bring in a player like Brown, who has been turning heads during the draft process.

Here’s where things get interesting. Arthur Brown is a name we haven’t spent much time discussing, but he’s one of the more intriguing players in the draft. Measuring in at 6-0 and 241 pounds, most teams will look at Brown and determine he’s too small to spend a first round pick on. That’s not a very good reason, but he does lack an obvious position at the next level.

His speed and playmaking ability most naturally lend themselves to weakside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme, which obviously doesn’t do much for Green Bay. For the Packers, he’d probably shift to the inside where his skills balance out those of Desmond Bishop. It’s not a great fit, but Brown is much more talented than he’s given credit. His athleticism makes this a legitimate option should the Packers decide to address inside linebacker early.

Nov 3, 2012; Athens, GA, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Bo Wallace (14) is tackled by Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Alec Ogletree (9) and linebacker Christian Robinson (45) in the game at Sanford Stadium. Georgia won 37-10. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

However, if that’s where Ted Thompson wants to go, he will have to consider Alec Ogletree. His DUI arrest is certainly going to be a red flag for the Packers, who don’t want to spend a first round pick on a player who might end up suspended. However, chances to take a top 10 talent at the back end of the first round are few and far between. Without his character concerns, Ogletree does not make it this far. With the Packers in a win-now mode, this is the type of pick that merits consideration. As we’ve seen from players like Johnny Jolly, bad personal habits can be controlled during the season. It’s a calculated risk, but if it works out Green Bay would have its second All-Pro linebacker.

Nov 12, 2011; San Francisco CA, USA; California Golden Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen (21) tries to catch the ball in the end zone but is unable to remain control during the second quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at AT

More and more, we’re hearing that teams in search of a wide receiver are valuing Cordarrelle Patterson and DeAndre Hopkins as the best wide receivers in the draft. The benefit of this is Keenan Allen – the most complete receiver in the draft – might be available when the Packers are on the clock. Wide receiver isn’t Green Bay’s biggest need, but Allen is the type of receiver the Packers haven’t had since Javon Walker’s one great season. He’s a big target with great hands, understands the complexities of route running, and will fight for the ball better than any wideout in this class. For Green Bay, he’d provide another receiver to line up wide thus opening up opportunities for slot receiver Randall Cobb.

September 29, 2012; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman John Jenkins (6) hits Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Tyler Bray (8) as he throws in the second half at Sanford Stadium. The Bulldogs won 51-44. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Another option we haven’t spent much time discussing is mammoth Georgia defensive tackle John Jenkins. At 6-4 and 346 pounds, Jenkins has the look of a true 3-4 nose tackle. A few years ago, it was all but assumed the Packers had the nose tackle position locked up, but B.J. Raji has proven much better at end. At the very least, Green Bay needs another player who can provide Raji some rest. With Ryan Pickett now the graybeard of the team, it’s time to find a replacement.

Jenkins could be that player.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.