The Level-Headed Section:

Both teams, as stated before, are 2-0.  The Cowboys have achieved their record by dispatching the Cleveland Browns 28-10 on opening weekend before winning a 41-37 shootout over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.  The Packers have taken a slightly easier road to 2-0, defeating a highly touted Minnesota Vikings team on the Monday Night Football opener, 24-19, although the lead was not safe until a timely Tarvaris Jackson interception in the final minutes, and a 48-25 win over the Detroit Lions in which the Packers squandered a 24-9 lead in the second half before pulling away thanks to the defense.

The Cowboys are currently the class of the NFC according to many sources (I mostly agree), and they have played like it, despite the scare on Monday night.  The Packers were picked by most prognosticators to finish 8-8 or 9-7, due to the loss of longtime quarterback Brett Favre, traded to the New York Jets.  However, fourth-year man Aaron Rodgers has stepped up admirably in his first two starts as the Packers quarterback.  After a cautious Week 1, Mike McCarthy loosened the leash on Rodgers a bit, and Rodgers responded with three touchdown passes in the first half.  McCarthy left the pass in the second half, which allowed the Lions to get back into the game.  Rodgers is not stranger to playing against the Cowboys on the big stage either; last November, Rodgers relieved an injured Favre and led the Packers on a comeback before losing to the Cowboys, 37-27.

The two main keys for the Packers in this game is the secondary and the running game.  The secondary in the 2007 game was severely depleted with Charles Woodson out with a toe injury.  Woodson broke another toe in the Minnesota game, but saved the game against Detroit, playing through pain with two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.  It looked like the Packers passing defense would be back at full strength this week, but starting safety Atari Bigby is out with a hamstring injury, meaning that second-year man Aaron Rouse will probably get the start opposite Nick Collins.  Bigby had more of an impact in the running game, but his big-hitter presence in the backfield will be missed.  Also a cause for concern was Calvin Johnson‘s play last weekend.  The Lions star wide receiver took two nearly identical slant patterns for touchdowns last week.  You have to bet that Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and Terrell Owens were looking at that one.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers need running back Ryan Grant to be at full strength to be successful.  He has been nursing a hamstring injury for some time, and was definitely hobbled by it on Sunday, rushing for only 20 yards on 15 carries.  Brandon Jackson looked at least fifty times better against the Lions than he did against the Vikings, chewing up over 60 yards on seven carries and scoring the clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter.  Hopefully he will be able to perform at that level against a tough Cowboys defense.

The Cowboys are a tough defense.  Their secondary will provide a stiff test for the Packers wide receiving corps.  Terence Newman, Anthony Henry, Adam Jones, and safety Ken Hamlin will be busy with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, but something has to give.  It will depend on whether or not Rodgers can get the ball out quickly to the wide receivers.  In last year’s game, Favre held the ball too long, giving the Cowboys time to get the receivers covered and giving the Cowboys pass rush time to get extra hits on him as well.  If Rodgers stays composed, he can be successful.  If he doesn’t, well, he won’t be successful.  He already has one national TV appearance under his belt, so the pressure of that should not get to him.

In August, I picked the Cowboys to win this one, 38-24.  However, things change.  Like the score.  That being said, my level-headedness is picking the Cowboys, 38-34.

Homerism

Tony Romo.  Seriously.  Can this guy win a big game?  He almost blew it for the Cowboys on Monday night against the Eagles.  He’s basically screwed the Cowboys up in the playoffs the last two years.  National television isn’t totally kind to him.  The easiest way for the Packers to win is to make Romo make mistakes.  If Romo makes one more mistake than Rodgers does, the Packers have the win.  Romo will make that mistake too.  He’ll sail one too high on Owens.  He’ll hold the ball too long in the pocket and get swallowed up by Aaron Kampman.  Something will happen that will give the Packers a chance to win.  Being the opportunists they are, they will take advantage of that and turn it into a win.  Woodson is hungry after his two interceptions last week.  Al Harris is out to prove he is still a shut down corner after being humiliated last year by Owens and in the NFC Championship Game by Plaxico Burress.  The Packers are obviously really hungry this year.  They were supposed to cede the division crown to the Vikings.  They weren’t supposed to get anywhere with their quarterback.  They want to prove the doubters wrong.  The Packers will prevail.  34-27.

Is Jessica going to be at this game?

Also, what’s the over/under for how many times John Madden and Al Michaels mention Favre?  I’m saying 27 before halftime.  And I’m taking over 40 for the game.

Any takers?

Week 3 appears to be one of the biggest games on the schedules for the Packers.  Last year the Packers went down the Irving, Texas (wait, I thought they played in Dallas?) to meet the Cowboys in a battle of 10-1 teams.  Many thought this game would be a preview of the NFC Championship Game later in the season.  Unfortunately not, as the Cowboys blew the divisional playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl-champion New York Giants.  The Cowboys started out fast and the Packers could not keep up, with the Cowboys taking the 37-27 victory and eventually control of the No. 1-seed in the NFC.  Not that it helped them, of course.  This game also gave Packer fans a taste of the future.  Former Packers quarterback Brett Favre suffered an elbow injury early in the game, paving the way for Aaron Rodgers to bring the Packers to within three points before the Pack Attack eventually succumbed.

This game showed that Rodgers could (hopefully) handle the pressure of being a starting quarterback in the NFL.  Other than that and some shifting on the Cowboys offensive line, both teams return with basically identical lineups.  This game will be exciting and it will be interesting to see how Rodgers responds in his second nationally-televised game in three weeks.  This will also be the first time John Madden broadcasts a Packers game that does not have Favre as the starter in 16 years.  I’m setting the over/under on Favre references at 20.  And I’m taking over.  Will Madden follow the ESPN approach and just bash, bash, and bash the Packers and Rodgers?  Or will he be rational?  I’m saying he’ll bash, but less than ESPN would.  Let’s get to the keys to this game:

Packers secondary vs. Cowboys wide receivers: In November, the Packers were torn apart by Tony Romo and the Cowboys air attack, as any or most Cowboys fans will be quick to tell you.  However, a large of group people are forgetting that Packers starter Charles Woodson missed this game with a toe injury, leaving Al Harris to fight Terrell Owens on his own.  This also led to botched coverages by Tramon Williams, Jarrett Bush, and whoever the hell else was back there on Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, and possibly Sam Hurd.  Putting Woodson back there changes the landscape of the secondary and makes it more difficult for Romo.  The safety trio of Atari Bigby, Aaron Rouse, and Nick Collins will also be counted on to bring the hammer down on the Cowboys wide receivers.  If Green Bay controls the secondary, they control most of the game.

Packers O-line vs. Cowboys front seven: Favre was absolutely wrecked last year in the pocket in this game.  Actually, there probably never was a pocket for most of it.  The four- and five-wide receiver sets that made the Packers so dangerous down the stretch worked to a disadvantage has Favre held on to the ball too long and allowed the Cowboys to bring an extra rusher, making him force some of his classic throws.  The Packers need their O-line to develop for this game.  Mike McCarthy does not want Rodgers on his back with Greg Ellis, DeMarcus Ware, and Zach Thomas on top of him for most of this one.  Veterans Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher will be counted on again to hold down the fort while the mess that is the interior line gets settled and hopefully gels for this game.  The Packers are also going to have to open up running lanes for Ryan Grant. Grant got in one good run last year against the Cowboys, but was stymied for the rest of the game.  They Packers got to get him going to take pressure off the passing game.

Cowboys secondary vs. Packers wide receivers and Aaron Rodgers: The Cowboys also revamped their secondary this offseason.  They locked up Terrence Newman and Ken Hamlin in the offseason, while Anthony Henry and Roy Williams (a glorified linebacker) return to the fold.  The additions are what makes this group key.  Mike Jenkins was a first-round draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft while Adam Jones (aka Pacman), if reinstated, gives the Cowboys a dangerous secondary for Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones to contend with.  This game will turn very physical, so the Packers will definitely need big wide receivers Ruvell Martin and rookie Jordy Nelson to step up and become factors.  Rodgers will need these guys to get open in order to be successful.

The Verdict: There’s so many more keys to this game than the ones mentioned.  The Cowboys really look like they are gearing up for a Super Bowl run this year and they seem to have the mindset for it, so the Cowboys get the nod, 38-24.

The Packers are now 2-1 after Week 3.