November 25, 2012; New Orleans, LA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (11) paces the sidelines during first quarter of their game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) started the game instead of Smith. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Yesterday, the San Francisco 49ers sent backup quarterback Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs. In return, San Francisco receives the 34^th overall pick in the upcoming draft and a conditional third round selection in 2014 that could convert to a second rounder depending on Smith’s playing time. That’s a large haul considering the dearth of demand around the league.

But it’s a robbery considering Smith’s low volume production.

While Smith finished with his most efficient year as a pro (he led the league in passer rating at the time he was benched), the former 49er has yet to produce a single season with 3000 or more yards passing and 20 or more touchdowns. Even Smith’s 2012 projected out to a full season – 2779 yards, 21 TDs, and 8 INTs – wouldn’t provide 3000/20 volume.

For the 49ers, Smith was more of a passenger of the ship than its captain. It begs the question: is a quarterback that is only efficient when he doesn’t take risks worth such a major investment?

There aren’t any great comps for the Smith trade, which is easy to understand. Teams with quarterbacks of any discernible quality rarely allow them to leave. Of the few occasions when a team did trade a quality quarterback, only the trades of Brad Johnson and Matt Cassel provide any insight into what the Chiefs can expect with Alex Smith.

Even though he lead Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl, Brad Johnson was never the most imposing passer.

In 2001, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers acquired Brad Johnson from Washington. An off and on starter, Johnson was a moderately efficient passer who the Buccaneers felt could optimize their talented but underachieving roster. In comparison to Smith, Johnson was a higher volume passer but less efficient. Regardless, Johnson was no one’s definition of a franchise quarterback. Rather, he was a quality short term solution to a prolonged quarterback shortage in Tampa. In Johnson’s first season as a Buccaneer, Tampa actually regressed, falling to 9-7 and third in the NFC Central. That led to head coach Tony Dungy receiving his walking papers and Tampa trading a truckload of draft picks for Jon Gruden. A year later, Tampa improved to 12-4 and won their first championship in franchise history. While that might imply the Johnson trade was a sterling success, it’s important to remember how much Tampa relied on their defense. That year, the Buccaneers lead the NFL in yards given up, points allowed, and points scored by a defense. By comparison, the Tampa offense finished 24^th in yards and 18^th in points scored. While Johnson provided leadership, he didn’t provide all that much in the way of an aerial attack. If Johnson’s performance is any indication of what the Chiefs can expect from Alex Smith, the Chiefs’ defense will have to improve dramatically, especially given the high draft picks Kansas City parted with.

November 18, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (7) is sacked by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap (96) and defensive tackle Geno Atkins (97) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

More recent was the case of Matt Cassel. Cassel barely played in college or in New England prior to 2008. That was the year Tom Brady tore his ACL in week 1, clearing the way for Cassel’s first meaningful snaps since his senior year of high school. To the surprise of many, Cassel played well, throwing for almost 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record. By the following season, Brady had healed and Cassel had been acquired by Kansas City. As with Brad Johnson, the early returns were disappointing. Cassel had as many interceptions as touchdowns, and the Chiefs went 4-12. In 2010, Cassel’s touchdown total increased by more than 10 while his interceptions were reduced by over 50%. Not coincidentally, the Chiefs won the AFC West for the first time since 2003. Unfortunately, that’s the best it got for Cassel in Kansas City. His next two years were a cocktail of injuries and unmet expectations, finally culminating in the aforementioned Alex Smith acquisition. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, both Brad Johnson and Matt Cassel suggest that this was a bad trade for Kansas City.

Now, the more pressing question for Green Bay: how will this trade affect the Packers? Or more specifically, how will the trade affect the Packers’ draft?

Dec 29, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) warms up prior to the start of the 2012 New Era Pinstripe Bowl against the Syracuse Orange at Yankee Stadium. Syracuse defeated West Virginia 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

As I wrote about earlier this month, the Packers will be greatly benefited or hurt by how many teams select quarterbacks in the first round. Any quarterback taken before the Packers’ selection will be a reach in terms of raw value, not to mention it keeps a player the Packers may desire on the board. Prior to the Smith trade, Kansas City was widely believed to be a possible destination for a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs had been connected to West Virginia’s Geno Smith, a quarterback with both speed and pocket passing skills not too unlike new Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s old protégé, Donovan McNabb.

Now with the Chiefs out of the quarterback market, it stands to reason that one less quarterback will be selected prior to Green Bay’s pick. The consequences of this are too remote to decipher at this time, but as we’ve seen it only takes one player to fall to change a franchise. Take the Packers for instance. In 2005, due to a confluence of a favorable draft order and quarterback demand, Aaron Rodgers fell from the top 10 to the mid-20s. The Packers snatched him up, and three years later the Packers were rewarded for their foresight and patience with a true franchise quarterback. But the Packers struck again in 2009, when B.J. Raji fell to pick 9 due to false reports of a positive drug tests. In just two years Raji became the most important defensive lineman on Green Bay’s Super Bowl winning roster.

There is another angle to the Alex Smith trade. The strength of the 2012 draft lies in the second to third round, where there is little to no drop off in value from player to player. Smart teams will try to maximize the amount of picks they can get for those rounds through trades. Had Kansas City not traded for Alex Smith, they might have drafted Geno Smith at number one. They also might have drafted another player and tried to trade back into the late first for another shot at a quarterback. The Packers were in prime position to be that team that trades back for more picks in that uber-valuable draft range. While that could still happen, there’s one less team vying for the Packers’ pick.

So, will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers notch win #14 easily in Kansas City Sunday or will the Chiefs give the Packers their best shot?

OK, so it’s that time of the week when we hear from the opposing camp about this week’s Packers vs. Chiefs game.

With just three weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, we asked Patrick Allen, the bigwig over at Arrowhead Addict, what is thoughts are heading into Sunday’s Packers vs. Chiefs match-up. He was so kind to take some time to answer our questions.

Enjoy! He’s brutally honest.

And don’t forget to Like Lombardiave.com on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

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With the third pick of the 2009 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select:

Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

Having addressed their quarterback need in the Matt Cassel trade, look for the Chiefs to address the other side of the ball with the third overall pick.  Todd Haley could be tempted to draft a wide receiver ([Michael] Crabtree) given his coaching history but linebacker remains their most pressing need on defense, besides defensive end.  This being a weak draft for defensive end, linebacker Aaron Curry is the most logical pick for the Chiefs. 

The Chiefs have declined to re-sign starting linebackers Rocky Boiman and Pat Thomas and have released veteran Donnie Edwards making them somewhat thin at the position.  They have traded for Mike Vrabel, which would obviously be a great mentor for the young Curry. 

The Wake Forest product is an absolute must if the Chiefs plan to move to a 3-4 defense, Curry on one side and Derrick Johnson on the other would provide the necessary pass rushing personnel for a team that set the record for the least amount of sacks in a season. 

The Seattle Seahawks are on the clock.

With the fourth pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select:

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

I don’t really like college football. Any sport that doesn’t have a
playoff system won’t easily win my attention or respect, so I don’t follow
the game that closely. Under normal circumstances, I’d tell you that blogs
like Field Gulls, Seahawk Addicts or Seahawks Draft Blog could give you a
better, more informed opinion than I could.

But these are not normal circumstances, and Michael Crabtree is not a
typical player. Even after addressing our desperate need at WR by signing
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle will select the best player available: The
game-breaking Crabtree.

As an NFC West fan, I get to watch Larry Fitzgerald torch my Seahawks
twice a year. In 2008, I got the added bonus of watching Fitz almost carry
Arizona to a World Championship. Housh isn’t Fitz. Neither is [Deion] Branch or
[Nate] Burleson… Hell, even Steve Largent wasn’t the dominant big-play threat
that Fitzgerald is right now.

Even with his foot surgery, and even after being revealed as 6’1″ instead
of 6’3″, drafting Crabtree is the best shot the Seahawks will have over
the next few years to get “their Fitzgerald.”

Selecting Crabtree isn’t just a “build for the future” move, either. With
Housh across from him, a (hopefully) healthy Branch in the slot, budding
Pro-Bowler John Carlson at TE, and Matt Hasselbeck throwing the ball,
Crabtree could make an immediate impact as Seattle’s “home run” threat.

The Seahawks aim to return to the top of the NFC West in 2009. Michael
Crabtree is the player most likely to help make that happen in this year’s
draft class.

Our hosts, the Cleveland Browns, are on the clock.

With the fifth pick in the draft, the Cleveland Browns select:

***Rey Maualuga, LB, USC*** 

A big reason behind why we decided to start this mock draft was because we were annoyed at the national media. Most mock drafts on the NFL Network and ESPN has the Browns selecting Malcolm Jenkins.

Sure, the Browns need help on defense and the secondary was inconsistent, but the cornerback position is the least of the team’s problems. In 2008, the Browns defense allowed an average of 151.9 yards rushing per game. The Browns lost to the Bengals 14-0 on Dec. 21 as Cedric Benson ran for 171 yards on 38 carries and back-up quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was 5-for-9 passing for 55 yards.

First and foremost, the Browns need to look to trade down and obtain some more draft picks. This will prove impossible since that’s the goal of most teams. The Browns also would be interested in Aaron Curry, but he is long gone.
 
With new coach Eric Mangini, the Browns will stick with the 3-4. So linebacker is the Browns’ biggest need in the draft.  The Browns need an edge pass rusher to fill Willie McGinest‘s position, but outside linebacker is one of the deepest positions in this draft.  That brings us to the void in the middle of the defense left by the departure of Andra Davis.

Maualuga is a nasty middle linebacker, the type of player that can bring attitude to a defense that sorely needs an identity. He is built perfectly to line up in the 3-4.  Peter King called him Ray Lewis, Jr. and Jon Gruden said Maualuga is the type of player to build a defense around.

Maualuga is known for his big hits and aggressive style of play. That should fit perfectly on the strong side of the Browns 3-4 defense next to D’Qwell Jackson. Pairing Jackson’s sideline-to-sideline speed with Maualuga’s power behind the mammoth Shaun Rogers, should make the Browns strong up the middle and help them slow down the opposition’s rushing attack.
 
Can you name a Pro Bowl defensive lineman or cornerback from the successful 3-4 defense in Pittsburgh? In Baltimore? No. But you can reel off a list of who’s who of linebackers.  It’s time the Browns start making the some names of their own.

Our AFC North rivals south on I-71, the Cincinnati Bengals, are on the clock.

Three more picks until the Packers are up on the clock.  Who is going to be there for us?