The Packers are in a solid position as they control most of their destiny. They beat the Eagles in week one therefore hold the head to head tie breaker there. They lost to Chicago, but have them on the schedule ahead and can even that series for the season. The New York Giants are still relevant and the Packers will play them as well. None of those games however mean anything without a win this weekend.

The Falcons are poised to make a stretch run with only New Orleans standing in the way of what should be a table run. That puts a little more pressure on the Packers to pull this one out and leave Georgia with eight wins. If the Packers can tip the scale towards themselves with this head to head tie breaker, they would stand to position themselves as the front runner for the NFC home field advantage. And we all know, no one but Green Bay likes playing in Green Bay in January. (more…)

First, in early May, running back Kevin Smith wrote that the Lions will be in the playoffs. Wow.

I won’t make a prediction about how many games we’re going to win, but I will say this: We will definitely make the playoffs this season.

Believe it or not we weren’t far off last year. Almost every game we could have won, we were one play or one player short. Except for Tennessee on Thanksgiving, they just came out and beat us to sleep. They manhandled us, but nobody else did.

Okay, now get all that laughter out.

I’m not totally sure what to think about this.  Part of me likes it.  It’s confidence and a little swagger on a team that had neither last season.  On the other hand, it is rather ridiculous to say that an 0-16 team that has an innumerable amount of weaknesses will turn around and be playing in January 2010.  I just don’t really see it happening.

There is hope for the Lions though.  The 2008 season saw the Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, and Baltimore Ravens all get into the playoffs, showing extreme improvements from dismal 2007 seasons.  This leaves hope for the Lions, especially the fact that Miami came off of a 1-15 season.  However, I see that type of improvement coming more from the Kansas City Chiefs of Seattle Seahawks than the Detroit Lions.

Cliff Avril was a little more judicious in his prediction for the 2009 season.

As for us making the playoffs, I think that is very, very possible. I’m definitely right with Kevin, we have a good enough team. Now it’s all about getting out there and proving it.

Our defense has a lot of new guys like Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, guys who have been in the playoffs and won Super Bowls and know how to win. Larry hasn’t brought out his Super Bowl ring yet, hopefully he’ll do it sometime during the season and we’ll get a few wins.

That sounds more like a guy who knows what’s up.  A “few wins” is a lot more realistic than the playoffs right now.  As for the Lions having a “good enough team,” I don’t think I can roll with that.  Daunte Culpepper is serviceable at best, and it’s hard to tell if he’s even serviceable anymore.  Matthew Stafford has all the potential and Mel Kiper, Jr. hair-grease all over him, but he’s a rookie quarterback, and rookie quarterbacks don’t typically come in and play well.  Some might point to Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan from last year, but they both had great situations.  Flacco had a great defense that didn’t make him do too much on offense and Ryan had a strong running game with Michael Turner, which took a lot of the pressure off of him as well.  Stafford has Smith.  Much work to be done.

It’s nice to see some swagger and confidence in Detroit after watching last year’s pitiful 0-16 season, but I’m still predicting a Packers sweep when the season gets started.

There is not one area of the Packers where all the blame can be shoved on. Rodgers had a great game, completing 25 of 37 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns. However, that one interception was costly. Without that interception, the Packers would have had a great chance of going ahead in the game. Ryan Grant showed a return to form, albeit in the fifth game of the season, with 83 yards rushing on 18 attempts. This is a far cry from his 20 yards on 15 attempts against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He is still lacking the explosiveness he had last year. Said explosiveness has only showed up once this year, in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings when he had a 50-some yard run. Rodgers did a more than adequate job of spreading the ball around, with six receivers catching three or more passes, led by Greg Jennings, who had 87 yards and a touchdown on four catches. Donald Lee and Donald Driver also had touchdown catches.

Although I said there is not one specific spot to put the blame for this loss, the defense, along with Rodgers’ errant pass could shoulder the load for this one. The defense was shredded by Michael Turner and Roddy White. Turner continued his strong play, rushing for 121 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries while White had eight receptions for 132 yards and one touchdown.  The defense did harass rookie Matt Ryan, holding him to 194 yards, but the Turner made up for that fact.  The defense will need to buckle down for Seattle or at least get healthier by the time Indianapolis comes to town.

Packers rush defense vs. Falcons rush offense

This centers around the Falcons young running back Michael Turner. Turner has been nearly unstoppable in the first weeks of 2008, leading the league with 422 yards on the ground. In Week 1, Turner rushed for 220 yards on 22 carries, an astounding 10.0 yards per carry. The Packers defensive line and linebackers will need to be on their game for this, but it is hard to tell whether or not they actually will. Versatile lineman Cullen Jenkins is out for the year with a chest injury, while two other defensive linemen are listed on the injury report: Jason Hunter is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury, while Ryan Pickett is probable with a knee injury. In the linebacking corps, A.J. Hawk is questionable with a groin injury. The pressure is on this group after the tandems of Marion Barber and Felix Jones from Dallas and Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn in Tampa absolutely shredded the Packers run defense. The Packers will now look to stop Turner and Jerious Norwood. Aaron Kampman and the rest of the defensive line will be keys to this game, while Nick Barnett and the linebackers will have to step it up to make plays and help out the defensive line.

Packers pass defense vs. Falcons pass offense

So far in his pro career, Falcons rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has surpassed expectations. He hasn’t appeared to be totally overwhelmed except for a few occasions and has been good with his decision making. Having Turner in the backfield helps him along in his development, but he has shown poise. The Packers will need to get to him in order to win this game. Kampman and Barnett will need to harass him all game and force him into bad decisions. Ryan does not have the best wide receivers in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, although White has been developing into a decent wideout in recent games. The Packers secondary is depleted, with five players listed on the injury report. Al Harris is out, while Atari Bigby and Aaron Rouse are not expected to play. Charles Woodson and Nick Collins are probable. The pressure falls to backups Jarrett Bush and Charlie Peprah in this one, both of him will most likely be seeing their first major action of the season. Collins is emerging as a playmaker, while Woodson has been clutch this year, so they are players to watch for the big play in the Packers secondary.

Packers quarterbacks vs. Falcons defense

Aaron Rodgers is a game-time decision. If he can’t go, Matt Flynn gets his first career start, four games into his career. Packers coach Mike McCarthy is considering resting Rodgers so he will be ready for the games against Seattle and Indianapolis, but if the Packers fall to 2-3 here, it will be hard to dig out of the hole. Flynn showed some poise against the Bucs defense, but the Packers chances to win decrease greatly with Flynn at the helm.  Rodgers is tough by playing through this injury and wanting to play through it, but he may have to sit this one out so he can be ready for the tough slate of games coming up.  The Falcons have a decent defense, but the Packers offense may be too much for it.

The Verdict: Packers 24, Falcons 14

The Packers have signed three-year veteran Kenneth Pettway in an attempt to add depth to the defensive line.  Pettway is best known for being with former Jacksonville Jaguars teammate Richard Collier the night he was shot.  Pettway has played 17 games the last two seasons.

The defensive line will need to be ready for Sunday, when the Michael Turner show and the Atlanta Falcons come up to Lambeau.

A side note, I’ll be out of the office tomorrow (Thursday) and Friday, so Pack blogging will be back Saturday.

The Packers need Grant to play in this game. They need a Turner-like performance from him. If Grant can’t go because of the hamstring, that means Brandon Jackson, last season’s opening day starter, would start. Jackson looked horrendous on Monday night, gaining only 12 yards on seven carries, and wearing white well as he was swarmed by at least three Vikings defenders every time he touched the ball. I’m not saying Jackson, a former second-round pick, is horrible, but the way Jackson could not get any penetration has me worried if Grant misses anytime.  Kregg Lumpkin has not seen any action, but an injury to Grant could grant (no pun intended) Lumpkin an opportunity to show himself or another opportunity for DeShawn Wynn to come up off the practice squad and get a shot.

If Grant has a big day, the Packers win big.  If he doesn’t, then it gets dicey.

If this game had taken place in 2007, there would be much more meaning behind this game, as the Falcons traded some quarterback to the Packers back in 1992 who did a bunch of things while playing 16 years for the Packers. But alas, that quarterback is gone from Green Bay, thus taking much of the mileage that commentators were going to get out of this game. Instead they are going to talk about Atlanta reversing some curse of trading the aforementioned quarterback. Nothing in the NFL is a cakewalk and nothing in the NFL should ever be treated as one, but this game appears to be the easiest game on the Packers schedule to date. The Falcons were a disaster last year. First, Michael Vick. Second, Bobby Petrino. Third, the fact that they just sucked. But things are starting to look up for the team as they have a new face of the franchise in third overall pick Matt Ryan out of Boston College, who has been named the starter for the season. With a rookie quarterback at the helm, the Falcons look to be in for a long season. The key matchups:

Packers defense vs. Ryan: The Packers will have already faced a plethora of decent quarterbacks in the first four games of the season in Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, Tony Romo, and whoever the Tampa Buccaneers are throwing out there. Having a rookie in his fifth start back there will most definitely be appealing to the defense. Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins will look to give Ryan hell all game long and knock him around, forcing him to make quick decisions. The quick decisions will lead to big play chances for Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Atari Bigby, and the secondary. Ryan does not even have sufficient safety blanket options. Ryan’s main targets are Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and rookie Harry Douglas. The starting tight end listed on NFL.com is Ben Hartsock. Yeah. Free agent acquisition Michael Turner is probably Ryan’s best option in the offense. In the whole offense.

Packers D-line vs. Turner: As I said before, the Falcons really do not a sufficient supporting cast around Ryan, except for Turner. The Falcons will be counting on Turner to be a horse until Ryan gets his feet under him. Blocking for Turner is fullback Ovie Mughelli, a very talented blocker that is expected to team with Turner to form a very good backfield.  Because of this, the pressure is on for Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett,  and Colin Cole to stop the run up the gut while getting support from Jenkins and Kampman on the outside.  The Falcons offensive line is below average, helping out the Packers a little bit and making Ryan and Turner’s lives miserable.

Mark Tauscher & Chad Clifton vs. Jamaal Anderson & John Abraham: The Packers stout bookend tackles face a tall task in this game against the quick Anderson and the skilled Abraham.  Clifton and Tauscher’s performance this season will affect the drafts of the future by Ted Thompson and of course it affects first-year starter Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers is going to need time to pick apart a weak Atlanta secondary, and the tackles must give him time.  The Packers O-line is a big question mark this year, but if Tauscher and Clifton show up to play, it won’t be that hard for Rodgers to develop.

The Verdict: The Packers win, 35-17.

The Packers are 4-1 through five games.