Could Syracuse Orange quarterback Ryan Nassib be a pick today by the Green Bay Packers?
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Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers signed the richest NFL contract ever yesterday, raking in a cool $40 million upfront and earning the remainder of his $110 million over the next five years – averaging out to be about $22 million per year.

Aaron Rodgers
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Packers Nation rejoiced and felt blessed that the team has locked up the best quarterback in the game through the prime of his career.

But as we enter the final day of the 2013 NFL Draft, the question nobody’s asking or even considering is whether Ted Thompson and company have any quarterbacks on their radar. After all, there are some decent signal callers out there who might thrive in Mike McCarthy’s quarterback university.

Stay with me here.

We all know that Aaron Rodgers won’t be around forever and we all know that TT has done nothing in the draft (yet) to take steps to add depth and competition to the offensive line – a line that gave up 51 sacks last year. Do you think Thompson wants to see that happen again? No, I didn’t think so.

Graham Harrell
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So, consider who the Packers have backing up Rodgers – Graham “I-can’t-make-a-handoff-from-the-one-yard-line” Harrell and B.J. “I’m-a-huge-project” Coleman.

Nicknames aside, I feel very nervous about having to rely on those two guys for a stretch of games should Rodgers go down with injury. Heck, you might as well write the season off if that occurs and those two are the go-to guys.

Now, I’m not saying that drafting a quarterback from this year’s class is the answer to all those problems, but at least it gives the Packers an option and some competition for that backup position behind Rodgers.

The Packers go into the day with 10 selections over the next four rounds – those are picks that Thompson could use to increase the size of his roster by a bazillion (and remember, only 53 will make it), or he can use them as trade bait and move up to select value over quantity … one of those could be used to pick up a quality quarterback.

Tyler Wilson
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Let’s see, still on the board are the likes of  Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse, Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas, and Matt Barkley, QB, USC. All three were considered within the top 40 players in the draft, but have slipped to the fourth round for a variety of reasons.

Here’s what The Sporting News has to say about Nassib:

Nassib was projected as a candidate for the No. 8 overall pick by the Bills, but they decided to trade down and take Manuel. After 97 picks, our No. 2-rated quarterback is still on the board. By now, it’s clear NFL teams don’t rate him nearly as highly as we do.

Here’s what The Sporting News has to say about Wilson:

After a challenging final year at Arkansas, Tyler Wilson is suffering again. This time, he has had to watch quarterback-needy teams pass on him for two days. A high-character, tough quarterback, Wilson should still have a long NFL career.

Matt Barkley
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Here’s what The Sporting News has to say about Barkley:

Barkley is the most well-known QB still on the board, as his lack of arm strength and poor play as a senior apparently created doubts about him. The lack of value placed on Barkley by NFL teams is shocking from an evaluation standpoint.

So, will Thompson pull the trigger to add depth to a position where one hit could cripple the Packers?

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Jan 23, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; Senior Bowl north squad quarterback Zac Dysert of Miami OH (7) , quarterback Ryan Nassib of Syracuse (12) and quarterback Mike Glennon of North Carolina State (8) during the Senior Bowl north squad practice at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Theoretically, the best available player is selected with every pick. Such an approach to the draft insures the greatest accrual of talent, and over the course of a few drafts teams can transform their fortunes. Yet, we all know this doesn’t occur in practice. Part of the cause is misevaluation, but part of that is positional demand. Most commonly, quarterback prospects are drafted far above where their relative abilities should place them. For a team like the Packers which already has a franchise quarterback and selects later in each round, this dynamic can push back more valuable prospects.

The 2013 draft pool presents an interesting predicament. Unlike the past couple of years which each featured four quarterbacks drafted in the first round, there is little to no consensus on how many quarterbacks will go round 1 this year. How many are taken will directly affect who the Packers select.

This year’s QB draft pool will go one of a few ways with results ranging from a significant value loss for Green Bay to rewarding them with an elite prospect. We address each scenario below:

Scenario 1: One or Fewer Quarterbacks are Selected in the First Round

November 17, 2012; Pasadena, CA, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley (7) sets to pass in the first half of the game against the UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

How it happens: This is the worst case scenario for Green Bay. While Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, Tyler Wilson, and Ryan Nassib each could go in the first round, none are locks to be taken that early. Teams may order them differently, but it’s unlikely that many feel there’s a significant discrepancy between the top and bottom player on their list. Because there are so many quality quarterback prospects – but no elite ones – teams could wait to select a passer in favor of selecting a better overall player.

Likelihood of happening: We’ve seen this happen before. In 2000, the league as a whole drafted as though there were no elite prospects. Instead, only the New York Jets selected a quarterback in the first round (Chad Pennington), while the rest of the NFL waited until the third round to take a passer. This happened again the following year when after Michael Vick went number one overall, the run on quarterbacks didn’t begin until the second round. In terms of QB value distribution, those classes mirror the 2013 class very well. While more likely scenarios exist, this outcome has a strong chance of occurring.

Scenario 2: Two to Three Quarterbacks are Drafted in the First Round

Dec 29, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) prepares to pass the ball during the second quarter against the Syracuse Orange at the 2012 New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Syracuse defeated West Virginia 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

How it happens: Similar to scenario 1, the QB needy teams take a conservative approach to drafting a quarterback. The difference this time around is a few decide to go that route sometime before the Packers select at number 26. Depending on your count, there are 6-9 teams that will draft a quarterback in the first few rounds this year. There aren’t that many “top” prospects at the position, so two to three teams may choose to grab one in the first.

Likelihood of happening: This is the most typical distribution of quarterbacks over the last 10 drafts. As such, it’s the most likely outcome. While not the best result for Green Bay, it would at least afford the Packers a decent shot at receiving proper value for the 26^th pick by pushing down a few better prospects.

Scenario 3: Four+ Quarterbacks are Taken in the First Round

Jan 26, 2013; Mobile, AL, USA; Senior Bowl south squad quarterback Tyler Wilson of Arkansas (8) against the Senior Bowl north squad during the first half of the Senior Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

How it happens: We’ve already discussed how similar in value the quarterback prospects are, but what we haven’t covered is how these prospects differ. Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson have strong arms and play with a gunslinger’s mentality, Geno Smith is a sneaky good athlete in the mold of Russell Wilson, and Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib are West Coast style passers. The teams in need of quarterbacks don’t all intend to use the same system. It’s not impossible that each team targets only the players that match their desired offensive style and thus aggressively pursues a prospect. In such a scenario four or more could go off the board before the Packers pick and allow Green Bay to select a player graded as a top 20 prospect.

Likelihood of happening: Unfortunately, this isn’t terribly likely. This outcome requires a perfect storm, and the draft is anything perfect. It requires all top quarterback prospects to have teams that value them as first round picks, and the chances of that are very, very low.

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.