November 25, 2012; New Orleans, LA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (11) paces the sidelines during first quarter of their game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) started the game instead of Smith. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Hirschhorn covers the Green Bay Packers for Lombardi Ave. He has previously written for Hail to the Orange, College Hoops Net, Mocking the Draft, LiveBall Sports, and the List Universe. He is currently a senior writer for Beats Per Minute, an indie-music webzine. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JBHirschhorn.

Yesterday, the San Francisco 49ers sent backup quarterback Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs. In return, San Francisco receives the 34^th overall pick in the upcoming draft and a conditional third round selection in 2014 that could convert to a second rounder depending on Smith’s playing time. That’s a large haul considering the dearth of demand around the league.

But it’s a robbery considering Smith’s low volume production.

While Smith finished with his most efficient year as a pro (he led the league in passer rating at the time he was benched), the former 49er has yet to produce a single season with 3000 or more yards passing and 20 or more touchdowns. Even Smith’s 2012 projected out to a full season – 2779 yards, 21 TDs, and 8 INTs – wouldn’t provide 3000/20 volume.

For the 49ers, Smith was more of a passenger of the ship than its captain. It begs the question: is a quarterback that is only efficient when he doesn’t take risks worth such a major investment?

There aren’t any great comps for the Smith trade, which is easy to understand. Teams with quarterbacks of any discernible quality rarely allow them to leave. Of the few occasions when a team did trade a quality quarterback, only the trades of Brad Johnson and Matt Cassel provide any insight into what the Chiefs can expect with Alex Smith.

Even though he lead Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl, Brad Johnson was never the most imposing passer.

In 2001, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers acquired Brad Johnson from Washington. An off and on starter, Johnson was a moderately efficient passer who the Buccaneers felt could optimize their talented but underachieving roster. In comparison to Smith, Johnson was a higher volume passer but less efficient. Regardless, Johnson was no one’s definition of a franchise quarterback. Rather, he was a quality short term solution to a prolonged quarterback shortage in Tampa. In Johnson’s first season as a Buccaneer, Tampa actually regressed, falling to 9-7 and third in the NFC Central. That led to head coach Tony Dungy receiving his walking papers and Tampa trading a truckload of draft picks for Jon Gruden. A year later, Tampa improved to 12-4 and won their first championship in franchise history. While that might imply the Johnson trade was a sterling success, it’s important to remember how much Tampa relied on their defense. That year, the Buccaneers lead the NFL in yards given up, points allowed, and points scored by a defense. By comparison, the Tampa offense finished 24^th in yards and 18^th in points scored. While Johnson provided leadership, he didn’t provide all that much in the way of an aerial attack. If Johnson’s performance is any indication of what the Chiefs can expect from Alex Smith, the Chiefs’ defense will have to improve dramatically, especially given the high draft picks Kansas City parted with.

November 18, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (7) is sacked by Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap (96) and defensive tackle Geno Atkins (97) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

More recent was the case of Matt Cassel. Cassel barely played in college or in New England prior to 2008. That was the year Tom Brady tore his ACL in week 1, clearing the way for Cassel’s first meaningful snaps since his senior year of high school. To the surprise of many, Cassel played well, throwing for almost 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record. By the following season, Brady had healed and Cassel had been acquired by Kansas City. As with Brad Johnson, the early returns were disappointing. Cassel had as many interceptions as touchdowns, and the Chiefs went 4-12. In 2010, Cassel’s touchdown total increased by more than 10 while his interceptions were reduced by over 50%. Not coincidentally, the Chiefs won the AFC West for the first time since 2003. Unfortunately, that’s the best it got for Cassel in Kansas City. His next two years were a cocktail of injuries and unmet expectations, finally culminating in the aforementioned Alex Smith acquisition. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, both Brad Johnson and Matt Cassel suggest that this was a bad trade for Kansas City.

Now, the more pressing question for Green Bay: how will this trade affect the Packers? Or more specifically, how will the trade affect the Packers’ draft?

Dec 29, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Geno Smith (12) warms up prior to the start of the 2012 New Era Pinstripe Bowl against the Syracuse Orange at Yankee Stadium. Syracuse defeated West Virginia 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

As I wrote about earlier this month, the Packers will be greatly benefited or hurt by how many teams select quarterbacks in the first round. Any quarterback taken before the Packers’ selection will be a reach in terms of raw value, not to mention it keeps a player the Packers may desire on the board. Prior to the Smith trade, Kansas City was widely believed to be a possible destination for a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs had been connected to West Virginia’s Geno Smith, a quarterback with both speed and pocket passing skills not too unlike new Kansas City coach Andy Reid’s old protégé, Donovan McNabb.

Now with the Chiefs out of the quarterback market, it stands to reason that one less quarterback will be selected prior to Green Bay’s pick. The consequences of this are too remote to decipher at this time, but as we’ve seen it only takes one player to fall to change a franchise. Take the Packers for instance. In 2005, due to a confluence of a favorable draft order and quarterback demand, Aaron Rodgers fell from the top 10 to the mid-20s. The Packers snatched him up, and three years later the Packers were rewarded for their foresight and patience with a true franchise quarterback. But the Packers struck again in 2009, when B.J. Raji fell to pick 9 due to false reports of a positive drug tests. In just two years Raji became the most important defensive lineman on Green Bay’s Super Bowl winning roster.

There is another angle to the Alex Smith trade. The strength of the 2012 draft lies in the second to third round, where there is little to no drop off in value from player to player. Smart teams will try to maximize the amount of picks they can get for those rounds through trades. Had Kansas City not traded for Alex Smith, they might have drafted Geno Smith at number one. They also might have drafted another player and tried to trade back into the late first for another shot at a quarterback. The Packers were in prime position to be that team that trades back for more picks in that uber-valuable draft range. While that could still happen, there’s one less team vying for the Packers’ pick.

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) and New York Giants strong safety Kenny Phillips (21) and strong safety Deon Grant (34) go up for a hail mary pass as time expires in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium. Richard Mackson

Can the Super Bowl get any better?

This year’s edition played up to all of the hype with both teams’ defenses showing up when they had to … and the offenses making just enough plays to send the game right down to the last play.

But it was the New York Giants who held the Super Bowl XLVI Lombardi Trophy aloft after Tom Brady’s last-second heave into the end zone fell harmlessly to the Lucas Oil Stadium turf just beyond the outstretched arms of Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.

In a game filled with huge plays, it was Mario Manninham’s sideline-tip-toeing catch on the Giants final offensive drive of the game that was the Patriot-killer. On first down from inside their own 10-yard line, Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning lofted a sideline pass to Manningham who was triple-c0vered but somehow caught the pass that set the Giants up at the 50-yard line on their way to a final touchdown that gave them a 21-17 win.

From there, the Giants moved the ball down the field to a first and goal. Despite running back Ahmad Bradshaw’s attempt to sit down at the one yard line failed, he fell into the end zone with just under one minute left, which unwisely gave Tom Brady and the Patriots time to take the ball down for the winning score.

The attempt by Brady at the end was valiant, but fell short when his Hail Mary fell incomplete.

When the Giants jumped out to a 9-0 lead in the first quarter on the arm of Eli Manning and the unusual safety caused by Tom Brady’s heave to nobody down the  middle of the field it looked like it could be a runaway Giants train.

Not to be … not with Tom Brady on the field.

Starting at his own four yard line – then being pushed back to the two yard line on a penalty – Brady manufactured a 98-yard drive at the end of the first half to take a 10-9 halftime lead. Ironically, it was the Giants that had dominated the game up to that point, only to fall behind because of Brady.

In the second half, the defenses again dominated the field as Brady and Manning were both harassed and field position came to the forefront.

Heading into the fourth quarter nursing a 17-15 lead, Brady started with the ball inside his own 10 when he hit Danny Woodhead on a huge third down play for a first down as the clock wound down under eight minutes.

Wes Welker took an end around for 11 yards to move the ball to the 46 yard line which was followed by a run for 1 yard on first down, and a pass for six to Gronkowski. On third and three, Brady hit Aaron Herndandez for a first down to extend the drive with under five minutes left.

With the Patriots attempting to milk the play clock, Chris Canty stuffed the run on first down for a loss of one. On second downBrady missed a wide open Welker down the left seam and then on third down and 11 Brady, with all kinds of time, threw incomplete to Deon Branch to force a punt that was fair caught by Will Blackmon at the 13 yard line.

That’s when Manning and the Giants took the field with 3:46 left … and on the first play of their possession, Manning hit Manningham for 38 yards that was challenged by Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick. The replay showed Manningham taking the hit, but maintaining control of the ball and getting both feet down before being pushed out of bounds.

With 3:38 left, Manning threw incomplete on first down from the 50, but on second and 10, he hit Manningham again down to the 34 yard line for another first down.

With the ball within field goal range, Manning threw complete for two yards on first down, and  then hit Hakeem Nicks on a quick slant down to the 18 as the clock wound down to the two-minute warning.

A big run for nine by Ahmad Bradshaw and a first down pass to Hakeem Nicks set the Giants up inside the 10-yard line with a  first and goal.

The Patriots then let Bradshaw run through a huge hole up the middle for the score, but  just as he got to the one yard line Bradshaw attempted to sit down without scoring, but couldn’t and fell into the end zone with 57 seconds left in the game.

The Giants two point attempt failed and they held what was to be their game-winning four point lead

Brady did all he could with the clock inside one minute. His first down pass to a wide open Branch was tipped and the receiver couldn’t hang on. On second down, Hernandez just couldn’t hang on to a Brady pass to set up third down when  Justin Tuck rushed up the middle for a huge sack on Brady.

The Patriots face fourth and 16 with no timeouts.

Brady, escaping the Giants fierce rush threw 18 yards to Branch who was able to get out of bounds for the first down.

Another first down pass we t to Hernandez to the 44 and a penalty on the Giants for 12 men on the field moved the ball to midfield.

However, there were only nine seconds left and when Brady threw incomplete to Branch there were just five seconds left.

On the last play of the game, Brady again avoided the rush and got of the Hail Mary pass that was tipped and nearly caught by Gronkowki. After the ball hit the turf, the Giants’ celebration began.

When it comes to championship games, it always comes down to the team that plays the best defense – even in this day and age of the quarterback. Just ask Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

That’s why I have to go with the New York Giants over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XVLI.

Final score: Giants 33 Patriots 28

Here’s why: Though the Patriots are the sexier pick as Belichick and Brady go for their fourth ring together and the team is trying to play off the emotion surrounding Robert Kraft losing his wife, the Giants are the better team all-around. They have a running game, dynamite receivers, a top 5 quarterback AND a defense. Matchups make the difference is championship games and the Giants clearly have the upper hand in all categories.

Don’t get me wrong, the Patriots will make a game of it and it could come down to the final two possessions, but the Giants will come up with enough pressure on Brady to turn the tables. Throw in the fact that tight end Rob Gronkowski’s injury will put a dent in the Patriots’ offense and you have enough to give the Giants the edge in this one.

It should be a great game. That’s why everyone is split pretty much down the middle on predicting its outcome.

In fact, here’s the best prediction I could find:

Greg Easterbrook on ESPN.com has this prediction – Confusion about the new playoff overtime format reigns when the Giants onside kick to start overtime and the Patriots recover but run the wrong way. Final score: Giants 2 Patriots 0

After the jump, take a look at some of the picks by the experts … and take the time for a click over to Lombardiave.com on Facebook, and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter.

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It was 10 years ago today that he hit Tom Brady on a snow-covered field in Foxboro Stadium, causing the New England Patriot quarterback to fumble the football. What ensued was the recovery of the ball by Woodson’s teammate, Greg Biekert, which seemingly put the Oakland Raiders in a position to run out the clock and give them a win in the playoff game.

That was before the game’s referee, Walt Coleman, went under the instant replay hood and came back to overturn the decision on the field utilizing a little known rule, the tuck rule, to give the ball back to the Patriots. New England went on to tie the score on a field goal by Adam Vinatieri and later won the game in overtime with another kick by Vinatieri.

How many times the rule has been used since then couldn’t be counted but it’s become one of the most well-known, and most misunderstood rules in the books.

Since that day, Woodson has gone on to win a world championship with the 2010 Green Bay Packers and that particular day is a distant memory for him.

Here is how the rule reads:

NFL Rule 3, Section 22, Article 2, Note 2. When [an offensive] player is holding the ball to pass it forward, any intentional forward movement of his arm starts a forward pass, even if the player loses possession of the ball as he is attempting to tuck it back toward his body. Also, if the player has tucked the ball into his body and then loses possession, it is a fumble.

According to Wikipedia, the rule isn’t appreciated by all. Here’s an excerpt:

While the NFL has defended the call, not everybody has agreed. Bruce Allen, who ran the front office for the Raiders at the time of the game, still believes it was a fumble. “The rule itself doesn’t bother me,” he said. “But the way the rule is written, it was a fumble.” Nevertheless, when the NFL’s Competition Committee re-examined the rule after the 2001-2002 season, they made no changes to the rule; Mike Pereira, the former director of officiating of the NFL, notes that attempts have been made to revise the rule, but such revisions have always proven to be more difficult to enforce than the current rule.

In honor of that particular day, here is a video from the day.