Is Jay Cutler one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL? The stats say yes.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph

Back in 2011, not long after I took over as the editor of this site, I wrote a piece about the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL and included on my list these names: Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez, and Tony Romo.

Today, The Bleacher Report’s Zach Kruse wrote a piece about the five most overrated players in the NFL utilizing computer-generated statistics that have come into vogue the past few years in rating players and teams. Among the players highlighted was Jay Cutler.

Though I looked at the statistics available way back in the dark ages of 2011, I posted my list based mostly on past performances, how the players were being viewed in the eye of the media and what those particular players’ future outlook was at the time.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo throws the ball against the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 28-18. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

It seems I hit the nail on the head as far as Cutler was concerned, and as far as Sanchez – he’s fallen so far off the radar that his presence isn’t even considered in 2013. So, was he overrated? Absolutely. Was Cutler? Without question.

For Romo, the statistics utilized by Kruse paint a pretty good picture for the Cowboys’ quarterback, but when you look at his won-loss record (which is reflective of the team – or lack thereof – around him), Wisconsin’s almost-famous son hasn’t done much. Though Jerry Jones is willing to pay through the nose for Romo’s services, in my opinion the quarterback is way overpaid and not much of a value to his team. The question in everyone’s mind is whether that perspective will change as the Cowboys improve as a team (they can’t get much worse, can they?). The jury is still out, but time is running out on Romo, who enters his tenth season in Dallas.

As for Cutler, injuries have hurt his production through the years, but even in a full season last year, his seventh in the league and his fourth with Chicago, he finished 27th among starting quarterbacks, according to Advanced NFL Stats, the stats utilized by Kruse.

Getting a fresh start under new coach Marc Trestman will most likely help Cutler. The question in my mind is whether it will be enough to lift Cutler out of the dregs of the past four years. Time will tell on that one.

Ditto for Romo.

As for Sanchez … well …

Just for kicks, I’ve tossed in the piece I wrote last year which recapped the 2011 piece. It might be dated, but I think much of what’s written at that time is still valid.

You be the judge …

Cutler, Sanchez And Romo – Still The Most Overrated QBs

By Raymond T. Rivard

Sometimes the more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same – at least that’s the case with the quarterbacks I called the most overrated more than a year ago.

Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo were at the top of my list on July 23, 2011, as I considered their value to their teams while we all waited for the eventual settlement of the NFL players lockout.

When we look at those three QBs in 2012, not much has changed. Though the Bears have built their team up around Cutler and the Bears sit at 4-1, he’s still not an elite leader – nor are Sanchez and Romo who have both been inconsistent the past year-plus.

Let’s take a look at what each has accomplished this year.

Cutler is 90-156 passing for 1,209 yards through five games – completing 57.7 percent of his passes. He’s got seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.

During Cutler’s four-year career in Chicago, he’s completed 869 passes in 1,457 attempts, a 59.6 percent completion rate. He’s thrown 70 touchdowns, but has had 56 interception. I wouldn’t say those are hall of fame statistics. If Aaron Rodgers had those types of numbers, Packers Nation would have run him out of town long ago.

Now on to Tony Romo – while he quarterbacks a team that sits at 2-2, he’s had a better go of it in 2012 than Cutler. He’s completed 66.9 percent of his passes, 101-151, for 1,148 yards. However, his five interceptions against Cutler’s Bears last week has inflated his interception total of eight this year. So far, he’s thrown just five touchdowns.

Now, let’s take a look at Sanchez, the darling of New York City Jets fans. We must ask right off – when will Rex Ryan finally get the message that Sanchez should be benched?

Sanchez’s team sits at 2-3. Sanchez has completed only 48.4 percent of his passes – 77-159, for 1,043 yards. He’s tossed six touchdowns and six interceptions.

Is it Tebow Time yet in New York. If Sanchez continues on this pace, Tebow will get his turn sooner than later.

So, my impressions of these three quarterbacks hasn’t changed much in 2012 from my original impressions in 2012.

Let’s take a look at what I posted last year. Check it out below:

So now that we must wait until at least Monday for any more news about whether we we are going to have an NFL season, I thought I’d take a few potshots of my own and focus on three of my “favorite” players.

So, here we go…

Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez …

Just what do they have in common?

Well, other than the fact that they play for NFL teams in the three biggest markets, to me they are three of the league’s most overrated players.

Romo, his only positive attribute being that he is a Wisconsin boy, plays for “America’s team,” but might as well be quarterbacking his Burlington High School squad. We’ll see what Jason Garrett can do with Romo this coming season, but to date (even when Garrett was handling the offense before becoming head coach) Romo hasn’t been able to pull together an offense over the course of a full season … nor has he been able to take his team to consecutive playoff wins.

He simply doesn’t have what it takes to be a winner, nor does he seem to be able to stay healthy long enough to do it. How do we know he doesn’t have it? Well, if you’re playing for a team that puts a defense on the field like the Cowboys and the team still can’t win the big games, then it’s pretty obvious that he doesn’t have what it takes.

His statistics are impressive. In five years in the league he has started 61 games and has a 39-22 record. He’s attempted 2,070 passes and completed 1,326 (64.1 percent) for 16,650 yards and 118 touchdowns. He also has a 95 quarterback rating … statistics that have earned him Pro Bowl appearances in 2006, 2007 and 2009. Injuries in 2010 kept him off the field and doomed the Cowboys.

He threw for more than 4,000 yards in 2007 and 2009, but in my mind he’s still overrated because he hasn’t won the big games and until he does that, he’s just a guy in this league.

He’s also a proven choker … consider the Seattle playoff game when he fumbled the snap.

Consider Sanchez in the same category. The Jets defense is among the top five or top 10 in the league. The team has a solid offensive line … heck, he even had LaDainian Thomlinson in the backfield last year, but when the ball was placed in his hands to win a game, he seemed to always come up short.

Though having played only two seasons in the league, maybe I’m jumping the gun on Sanchez, but he had better step into a bigger role this coming season. If he doesn’t, the Jets may just give up on the high 2009 draft pick … the player the team selected to replace Brett Favre.

Sanchez has been reliable, starting 31 games in his first two seasons and has a 19-12 record. However, he’s completed just 474 of 871 passes (54.4 percent) and 5,735 yards and 29 touchdowns.

His 33 interceptions in two seasons are also alarming for the Jets. That’s the type of statistic that isn’t going to win many fans or win many of the big games.

Sanchez’s performance in the AFC Championship game last season against Pittsburgh was pathetic in the first half. Though he brought the team back in the second half, because of a soft defense by the Steelers, it wasn’t enough to win the game. The Steelers allowed the Jets enough room to make a game of it, but when it needed to stiffen, the Steeler defense did so. A good quarterback – a Manning, Rivers or Rodgers – wouldn’t allow their teams to get into that situation in the first place and in the second place, they would have finished that game with a comeback win. Sanchez didn’t. Maybe it’s his youth, maybe it’s just that he’s overrated.

And of course we have to throw Jay Cutler into the mix.

Yes, we all know he’s tough. His teammates, including Brian Urlacher, say so. We have to believe them.

But if appearances are worthy of anything, all anyone has to do is see the pictures of Cutler on the sideline in last year’s NFC Championship game to understand that there’s something about Cutler that’s just not right.

It’s attitude.

For crying out loud, it was the NFC Championship AGAINST THE PACKERS! If Urlacher broke his leg, he would have been out there trying to kill Aaron Rodgers.

His stats are OK … in the past two years with Chicago, Cutler has completed 597 of  987 attempts for 6,940 yards (60.5 percent). He has 50 touchdowns with the Bears, but only an 80.9 quarterback rating.

His career statistics are very similar to Romo’s: 1,359 completions in 2,207 attempts for 15,964 yards (61.6 percent) and 104 touchdowns. But like Romo, Cutler hasn’t been able to lead his team to playoff wins. While he did lead the Bears to a division title last year, he couldn’t finish the job in two important games: The season finale in Green Bay and the championship game at home against the Packers.

Until he can shake the “soft” moniker and win some playoff games, Cutler is going to be viewed like Romo – just a guy who racks up statistics, but can’t win.

My guess is that these three “guys” will be just that for the remainder of their careers. They will win lots of games, but won’t win those that matter most.

And for that, they will continue to be overrated year after year.

Tony Romo is known more for his off-field exploits than for his on-field successes.

Sometimes the more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same – at least that’s the case with the quarterbacks I called the most overrated more than a year ago.

Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo were at the top of my list on July 23, 2011, as I considered their value to their teams while we all waited for the eventual settlement of the NFL players lockout.

When we look at those three QBs in 2012, not much has changed. Though the Bears have built their team up around Cutler and the Bears sit at 4-1, he’s still not an elite leader – nor are Sanchez and Romo who have both been inconsistent the past year-plus.

Let’s take a look at what each has accomplished this year.

Cutler is 90-156 passing for 1,209 yards through five games – completing 57.7 percent of his passes. He’s got seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.

During Cutler’s four-year career in Chicago, he’s completed 869 passes in 1,457 attempts, a 59.6 percent completion rate. He’s thrown 70 touchdowns, but has had 56 interception. I wouldn’t say those are hall of fame statistics. If Aaron Rodgers had those types of numbers, Packers Nation would have run him out of town long ago.

Now on to Tony Romo – while he quarterbacks a team that sits at 2-2, he’s had a better go of it in 2012 than Cutler. He’s completed 66.9 percent of his passes, 101-151, for 1,148 yards. However, his five interceptions against Cutler’s Bears last week has inflated his interception total of eight this year. So far, he’s thrown just five touchdowns.

Mark Sanchez’s first few years in New York have been less than stellar

Now, let’s take a look at Sanchez, the darling of New York City Jets fans. We must ask right off – when will Rex Ryan finally get the message that Sanchez should be benched?

Sanchez’s team sits at 2-3. Sanchez has completed only 48.4 percent of his passes – 77-159, for 1,043 yards. He’s tossed six touchdowns and six interceptions.

Is it Tebow Time yet in New York. If Sanchez continues on this pace, Tebow will get his turn sooner than later.

So, my impressions of these three quarterbacks hasn’t changed much in 2012 from my original impressions in 2012.

Let’s take a look at what I posted last year. Check it out below:

So now that we must wait until at least Monday for any more news about whether we we are going to have an NFL season, I thought I’d take a few potshots of my own and focus on three of my “favorite” players.

So, here we go…

Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez …

Just what do they have in common?

Well, other than the fact that they play for NFL teams in the three biggest markets, to me they are three of the league’s most overrated players.

Romo, his only positive attribute being that he is a Wisconsin boy, plays for “America’s team,” but might as well be quarterbacking his Burlington High School squad. We’ll see what Jason Garrett can do with Romo this coming season, but to date (even when Garrett was handling the offense before becoming head coach) Romo hasn’t been able to pull together an offense over the course of a full season … nor has he been able to take his team to consecutive playoff wins.

He simply doesn’t have what it takes to be a winner, nor does he seem to be able to stay healthy long enough to do it. How do we know he doesn’t have it? Well, if you’re playing for a team that puts a defense on the field like the Cowboys and the team still can’t win the big games, then it’s pretty obvious that he doesn’t have what it takes.

His statistics are impressive. In five years in the league he has started 61 games and has a 39-22 record. He’s attempted 2,070 passes and completed 1,326 (64.1 percent) for 16,650 yards and 118 touchdowns. He also has a 95 quarterback rating … statistics that have earned him Pro Bowl appearances in 2006, 2007 and 2009. Injuries in 2010 kept him off the field and doomed the Cowboys.

He threw for more than 4,000 yards in 2007 and 2009, but in my mind he’s still overrated because he hasn’t won the big games and until he does that, he’s just a guy in this league.

He’s also a proven choker … consider the Seattle playoff game when he fumbled the snap.

Consider Sanchez in the same category. The Jets defense is among the top five or top 10 in the league. The team has a solid offensive line … heck, he even had LaDainian Thomlinson in the backfield last year, but when the ball was placed in his hands to win a game, he seemed to always come up short.

Though having played only two seasons in the league, maybe I’m jumping the gun on Sanchez, but he had better step into a bigger role this coming season. If he doesn’t, the Jets may just give up on the high 2009 draft pick … the player the team selected to replace Brett Favre.

Sanchez has been reliable, starting 31 games in his first two seasons and has a 19-12 record. However, he’s completed just 474 of 871 passes (54.4 percent) and 5,735 yards and 29 touchdowns.

His 33 interceptions in two seasons are also alarming for the Jets. That’s the type of statistic that isn’t going to win many fans or win many of the big games.

Sanchez’s performance in the AFC Championship game last season against Pittsburgh was pathetic in the first half. Though he brought the team back in the second half, because of a soft defense by the Steelers, it wasn’t enough to win the game. The Steelers allowed the Jets enough room to make a game of it, but when it needed to stiffen, the Steeler defense did so. A good quarterback – a Manning, Rivers or Rodgers – wouldn’t allow their teams to get into that situation in the first place and in the second place, they would have finished that game with a comeback win. Sanchez didn’t. Maybe it’s his youth, maybe it’s just that he’s overrated.

And of course we have to throw Jay Cutler into the mix.

Yes, we all know he’s tough. His teammates, including Brian Urlacher, say so. We have to believe them.

But if appearances are worthy of anything, all anyone has to do is see the pictures of Cutler on the sideline in last year’s NFC Championship game to understand that there’s something about Cutler that’s just not right.

It’s attitude.

For crying out loud, it was the NFC Championship AGAINST THE PACKERS! If Urlacher broke his leg, he would have been out there trying to kill Aaron Rodgers.

His stats are OK … in the past two years with Chicago, Cutler has completed 597 of  987 attempts for 6,940 yards (60.5 percent). He has 50 touchdowns with the Bears, but only an 80.9 quarterback rating.

His career statistics are very similar to Romo’s: 1,359 completions in 2,207 attempts for 15,964 yards (61.6 percent) and 104 touchdowns. But like Romo, Cutler hasn’t been able to lead his team to playoff wins. While he did lead the Bears to a division title last year, he couldn’t finish the job in two important games: The season finale in Green Bay and the championship game at home against the Packers.

Until he can shake the “soft” moniker and win some playoff games, Cutler is going to be viewed like Romo – just a guy who racks up statistics, but can’t win.

My guess is that these three “guys” will be just that for the remainder of their careers. They will win lots of games, but won’t win those that matter most.

And for that, they will continue to be overrated year after year.

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) will meet in next season's opener Wednesday, Sept. 5. Chris Faytok/The Star-Ledger via US PRESSWIRE

The National Football League had its chance for 2012 season opener with a bang. League schedulers had a no-brainer on their hands and they proceeded to fumble the snap.

They could have set the schedule to open the season (this year on a Wednesday) featuring the past two Super Bowl-winning teams, the Green Bay Packers vs. the New York Giants, a game that would feature arguably the two best quarterbacks in the league and pit the David (Packers) against the Goliath (Giants) when it comes to overall market share.

But no. What does the league do? Just when the league is poised to land a game that would bring together two teams that have faced off in epic playoff battles twice in the past five years, they book the Cowboys.

Say what?

Yes, money does talk and so does that loudmouth, arrogant moneybags himself, Jerry Jones. This has his fingerprints all over it and given that Commissioner Roger Goodell is deep in Jones’s pocket, this game seemed inevitable – even though Packers vs. Giants was the sentimental choice.

Giants vs. Cowboys is so 20th century and 27 seconds ago. The league must have seen that.

But that doesn’t matter. Now we can all slumber in our loungers watching Tony Romo screw up another game and Eli Manning marching his team down the field to a winning score. We can all slumber with visions of Packers running for touchdowns and Lambeau Leaps dancing in our heads. We won’t have to worry about how to spend the following 12 days before another Packers game when we should all be engrained with the seven-day football itch.

We would have all loved to get juiced for the prime time appearance that could have featured the Packers and Giants, but we must wait for another day.

That’s OK. Instead we’ll be able to get in a bit of shuteye between Tony Romo miscues.

The Green Bay Packers are undefeated for many reasons ... One of which is Aaron Rodgers.

Think back to the 70s, 80s, and very early 90s, if you are old enough like me … Or if you can’t, get out some books check out Wikipedia or some other resource and look up the record of the Green Bay Packers.

Then take a look at the most recent article posted by Bob McGinn over at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

What you will find is something just short of astounding.

And I’ve wondered why I’ve been so much happier on Monday mornings than my Bears, Lions and Vikings friends.

The statistics that McGinn posts to support the reasons why the Packers have rolled to 18 straight wins is both a fabulous study in excellence, but is also a template for the entire league to follow.

I beg you to look at McGinn’s piece. It will literally blow your mind and certainly give you good reason to smile ear-to-ear.

Will the train be stopped any time in the near future? It’s difficult to say, but I will say this: it’s going to take a mighty locomotive or maybe John Henry to slow this behemoth.

You can jump directly to McGinn’s story here or take the jump just below for the complete story without leaving Lombardiave.com.

And don’t forget to Like Lombardiave.com on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
(more…)

I can’t disagree with that assessment based on the fact that the teams that start the season with two straight losses have a very minimal chance of making the playoffs – something like a 12 percent chance. 

When you look at it from that perspective, there’s no question Romo’s day was spectacular. And to do it with a broken rib is even more remarkable. Anyone who has had a broken rib knows how painful the simple act of breathing cab be, and to consider that Romo did it all while playing football is also astounding. I know that if placed in that situation, I would have been crying like a baby.

Ok, but with all that said, let’s put things into some perspective. 

Romo is a professional football quarterback. He makes literally tens of thousands of dollars per game to carry out out his craft … He is expected to play in pain.

How much of a big deal would everyone be making about all this if Brett Favre played and led his team back from defeat under similar circumstances? And what about Ben Roethlisberger who got his knee bent like a pretzel yesterday, but came back to lead the Steelers to a shutout win? Ok, it was against the Seahawks.

So, my point is this: We know that what Romo did was above and beyond, but why the overgushing with descriptions that ranged from gutty to heroic?

Is it because Romo is the media darling who plays for Jerry Jones’ ‘Boys?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Either way, I just ask the question.

Had it occurred in a playoff game or a Super Bowl then maybe he would deserve it … But it was the second game of the year, for cripes sake, and he was playing against the 49ers.

It also says a bit about the Cowboys’ situation at backup QB … With Jon Kitna next in line and his poor performance during the time Romo was out, the coaching staff had no choice but to put Romo back into the game and to risk more injury.

I like Tony Romo. He’s a Wisconsin boy with a lot of talent, but this kind of over-adulation is a bit much. 

It’s too early in the season to start putting him into the Hall of Fame just yet.

Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo are three of the league's most overrated quarterbacks. Raymond T. Rivard photograph

So now that we must wait until at least Monday for any more news about whether we we are going to have an NFL season, I thought I’d take a few potshots of my own and focus on three of my “favorite” players.

So, here we go…

Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez …

Just what do they have in common?

Well, other than the fact that they play for NFL teams in the three biggest markets, to me they are three of the league’s most overrated players. (more…)

Tony Romo is quite the golfer. AP photograph

Tony Romo, the Wisconsin boy who does most of his work for the ‘Boys of Dallas, is quite the golfer, they say, and has been installed as a 5-2 favorite to win the 22nd annual American Century Championship celebrity golf tournament coming up later this month in Lake Tahoe, Calif.
Romo was ranked as the co-favorite along with Rick Rhoden by Harrah’s & Harveys Lake Tahoe Sports Book. (more…)

TO’s new reality show on VH1, “The TO Show,” confirms everything we already knew about the Buffalo Bills wide receiver.  He’s selfish, likes to be the center of attention, and doesn’t really listen to anyone else.  The pilot episode last night centered around TO’s two publicists (who I refer to as his “handlers”), Kita and Monique trying to change TO’s image from TO to Terrell.  I don’t think giving the entire world a look into the life of one the biggest divas in NFL history was the best move.

Apparently, the show is supposed to show a different side of TO.  What it does is show the viewers that TO is exactly the same at home as he is out in public.  He pays up $137,000 for diamond earrings.  He invites an entire club back to his house for a party.  He hooks up with his real estate agent in his hot tub.  On the field, he always wants the ball.  Off the field, he always the attention.

The show also seems painfully calculated.  He is forced by his handlers to contact his ex-fiance to see how she is doing.  When TO meets with her, he dodges her questions about his love life, a la Drew Rosenhaus.  He had to have learned it somewhere.  TO didn’t want to go meet with her.  He is forced into it by his handlers and he makes it clear he doesn’t want to do what they tell him.  It’s hard to imagine that Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, and Tony Romo know how Kita and Mo feel.

The show did have one interesting part which, surprisingly, pertained to football.  In one scene, TO sits down with his best friend Pablo, a large dude that cuts rank farts on the LA freeways, and divulges how his meeting with Jerry Jones went when Jones told TO that he was no longer a member of the Dallas Cowboys.  The reasoning that TO says Jones used makes perfect sense: I support you 100%, so I’m going to cut you.  Jones’ method of drawing a diagram on a tablecloth is original to say the least.  The show becomes even more amusing when TO describes waiting around so he could take the tablecloth with him after the meeting.

The advent of “The T.O. Show” has to be a low point in the history of reality TV shows.  If TO’s handlers want to “change the man,” as is their mantra throughout the show, then they should take my advice: get him out of the spotlight.  The less there is of TO, the more people like him.  The last thing that will change people’s opinions about him is seeing him in his cushy personal life still being TO.  As a closet Philadelphia Eagles fan, the disdain factor for TO just reaches the ridiculous.  If TO wasn’t already a joke to people before, he has definitely surpassed that now.  If he was already a joke to people, he has pushed himself totally out of the radar.

Dick Jauron and Trent Edwards, study up.  Using this show as film on how to deal with TO could come in more handy than any other games tapes you have on him.

You can watch the episode here.

Follow @LombardiAve on Twitter or subscribe and get daily updates from Lombardi Ave here.

Before I say anything else, I’d like to say “Good riddance. I used all my superlatives on you last year.”

But anyway, Favre is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, meant a lot to Green Bay, was loved by the media, an all-around good guy, yada yada yada.  You know the drill.  ESPN gets on him for a little bit, and soon enough they’ll be off.

Until, of course, they start speculating about how he’ll go to the Minnesota Vikings.

But until then, we’ll enjoy the memories of Brett Favre, all that ESPN can shove down our throats.  Again.

I still have a grudge against this guy.  I feel he is partly responsible for the Packers 6-10 season.  He was a huge distraction this offseason, no matter what they tell you.  Holding a team hostage obviously bothers the playoffs.  He took away from important aspects of the offseason, most notably, I feel that he distracted Ted Thompson from the Ryan Grant contract situation.  Grant’s slow start was crucial to the Packers basically sucking in 2008.

But hey, Favre’s still my favorite player of all-time.  No one (I’m looking at you, Tony Romo) will ever play like him, no matter what anyone says.  You can just fill in a typical ESPN report about his career here.  Hopefully, I’ll be at his induction whenever it is.

Unless, of course, he plays for Minnesota.  In which case, he’s out of my book.  I got an Aaron Rodgers jersey for Christmas; I have no use for the Favre jersey anymore.

But anyway, good riddance/happy trails, Brett Lorenzo Favre.

The Level-Headed Section:

Both teams, as stated before, are 2-0.  The Cowboys have achieved their record by dispatching the Cleveland Browns 28-10 on opening weekend before winning a 41-37 shootout over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night.  The Packers have taken a slightly easier road to 2-0, defeating a highly touted Minnesota Vikings team on the Monday Night Football opener, 24-19, although the lead was not safe until a timely Tarvaris Jackson interception in the final minutes, and a 48-25 win over the Detroit Lions in which the Packers squandered a 24-9 lead in the second half before pulling away thanks to the defense.

The Cowboys are currently the class of the NFC according to many sources (I mostly agree), and they have played like it, despite the scare on Monday night.  The Packers were picked by most prognosticators to finish 8-8 or 9-7, due to the loss of longtime quarterback Brett Favre, traded to the New York Jets.  However, fourth-year man Aaron Rodgers has stepped up admirably in his first two starts as the Packers quarterback.  After a cautious Week 1, Mike McCarthy loosened the leash on Rodgers a bit, and Rodgers responded with three touchdown passes in the first half.  McCarthy left the pass in the second half, which allowed the Lions to get back into the game.  Rodgers is not stranger to playing against the Cowboys on the big stage either; last November, Rodgers relieved an injured Favre and led the Packers on a comeback before losing to the Cowboys, 37-27.

The two main keys for the Packers in this game is the secondary and the running game.  The secondary in the 2007 game was severely depleted with Charles Woodson out with a toe injury.  Woodson broke another toe in the Minnesota game, but saved the game against Detroit, playing through pain with two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.  It looked like the Packers passing defense would be back at full strength this week, but starting safety Atari Bigby is out with a hamstring injury, meaning that second-year man Aaron Rouse will probably get the start opposite Nick Collins.  Bigby had more of an impact in the running game, but his big-hitter presence in the backfield will be missed.  Also a cause for concern was Calvin Johnson‘s play last weekend.  The Lions star wide receiver took two nearly identical slant patterns for touchdowns last week.  You have to bet that Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and Terrell Owens were looking at that one.  On the other side of the ball, the Packers need running back Ryan Grant to be at full strength to be successful.  He has been nursing a hamstring injury for some time, and was definitely hobbled by it on Sunday, rushing for only 20 yards on 15 carries.  Brandon Jackson looked at least fifty times better against the Lions than he did against the Vikings, chewing up over 60 yards on seven carries and scoring the clinching touchdown in the fourth quarter.  Hopefully he will be able to perform at that level against a tough Cowboys defense.

The Cowboys are a tough defense.  Their secondary will provide a stiff test for the Packers wide receiving corps.  Terence Newman, Anthony Henry, Adam Jones, and safety Ken Hamlin will be busy with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones, but something has to give.  It will depend on whether or not Rodgers can get the ball out quickly to the wide receivers.  In last year’s game, Favre held the ball too long, giving the Cowboys time to get the receivers covered and giving the Cowboys pass rush time to get extra hits on him as well.  If Rodgers stays composed, he can be successful.  If he doesn’t, well, he won’t be successful.  He already has one national TV appearance under his belt, so the pressure of that should not get to him.

In August, I picked the Cowboys to win this one, 38-24.  However, things change.  Like the score.  That being said, my level-headedness is picking the Cowboys, 38-34.

Homerism

Tony Romo.  Seriously.  Can this guy win a big game?  He almost blew it for the Cowboys on Monday night against the Eagles.  He’s basically screwed the Cowboys up in the playoffs the last two years.  National television isn’t totally kind to him.  The easiest way for the Packers to win is to make Romo make mistakes.  If Romo makes one more mistake than Rodgers does, the Packers have the win.  Romo will make that mistake too.  He’ll sail one too high on Owens.  He’ll hold the ball too long in the pocket and get swallowed up by Aaron Kampman.  Something will happen that will give the Packers a chance to win.  Being the opportunists they are, they will take advantage of that and turn it into a win.  Woodson is hungry after his two interceptions last week.  Al Harris is out to prove he is still a shut down corner after being humiliated last year by Owens and in the NFC Championship Game by Plaxico Burress.  The Packers are obviously really hungry this year.  They were supposed to cede the division crown to the Vikings.  They weren’t supposed to get anywhere with their quarterback.  They want to prove the doubters wrong.  The Packers will prevail.  34-27.

Is Jessica going to be at this game?

Also, what’s the over/under for how many times John Madden and Al Michaels mention Favre?  I’m saying 27 before halftime.  And I’m taking over 40 for the game.

Any takers?

To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.”

I watched the highlights to the game and was absolutely horrified. In the fourth quarter, while sitting on a 24-9 lead, the Packers unraveled. First, Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson turned a quick slant route into a 38-yard touchdown, Packers punter Derrick Frost mishandled a punt, leading to a Lions safety.

It’s 24-18. Like BOOM.

Then deja vu struck again when Johnson turned a nearly identical pass from Jon Kitna into a touchdown, this time from 47-yards out.

25-24, Lions.

If I was watching this game, I would have been flipping out. But I was totally oblivious to this happening. So no harm, no foul. Keeps my stress levels down.

Then the Packers start working their magic. The retook the lead on the ensuing drive on a Mason Crosby field goal, 27-25. Then the fun began.

On the next Lions drive, Charles Woodson intercepted Kitna, setting up Brandon Jackson‘s best rush of the season, a 19-yarder for the score and a 34-25 lead. Woodson showed some skills AGAIN on the next drive, intercepting Kitna and taking the ball to the barn. 41-25, Packers. Kitna’s last six minutes at the office got even worse as on the next drive he was intercepted YET AGAIN, this time by Nick Collins, who followed to trend set by Woodson and took it to the house. 48-25, Packers.

Game, set, match.

The fact the Lions were able to get back into this one really scares me. Woodson and Al Harris need to be on top of their game with Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, and the rest of the Dallas Cowboys coming into town next Sunday.

In other news, Aaron Rodgers continued his development as a starting quarterback, absolutely owning up on the Lions defense (statistically, at least). Rodgers completed 24 of 38 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns, giving him his first 300-yard passing game and first three-touchdown game. The guy looks good. His first touchdown pass to James Jones was a great scramble, while his third touchdown pass to rookie Jordy Nelson was absolutely beautiful. Greg Jennings lead the receiving department with 167 yards on six catches, including two catches of more than 50 yards. Donald Driver had seven catches and one touchdown. In the rushing department, Jackson actually led the team, a 180-degree turn from Week 1, with 61 yards on seven carries including the touchdown. Ryan Grant was bottled up, partly by a hamstring injury, gaining only 20 yards on 15 carries. He will need to be at full strength for the Dallas game. On defense, A.J. Hawk is not showing any ill-effects of his chest injury, recording seven tackles and two sacks. The defense did a good job shutting down Kevin Smith‘s running game, but they were absolutely torched by Johnson, who had six receptions for 129 yards and two touchdowns. The disgruntled Roy Williams was held to three catches for 48 yards.

Dallas is next. This will be a tough one.

If this game had taken place in 2007, there would be much more meaning behind this game, as the Falcons traded some quarterback to the Packers back in 1992 who did a bunch of things while playing 16 years for the Packers. But alas, that quarterback is gone from Green Bay, thus taking much of the mileage that commentators were going to get out of this game. Instead they are going to talk about Atlanta reversing some curse of trading the aforementioned quarterback. Nothing in the NFL is a cakewalk and nothing in the NFL should ever be treated as one, but this game appears to be the easiest game on the Packers schedule to date. The Falcons were a disaster last year. First, Michael Vick. Second, Bobby Petrino. Third, the fact that they just sucked. But things are starting to look up for the team as they have a new face of the franchise in third overall pick Matt Ryan out of Boston College, who has been named the starter for the season. With a rookie quarterback at the helm, the Falcons look to be in for a long season. The key matchups:

Packers defense vs. Ryan: The Packers will have already faced a plethora of decent quarterbacks in the first four games of the season in Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna, Tony Romo, and whoever the Tampa Buccaneers are throwing out there. Having a rookie in his fifth start back there will most definitely be appealing to the defense. Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins will look to give Ryan hell all game long and knock him around, forcing him to make quick decisions. The quick decisions will lead to big play chances for Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Atari Bigby, and the secondary. Ryan does not even have sufficient safety blanket options. Ryan’s main targets are Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and rookie Harry Douglas. The starting tight end listed on NFL.com is Ben Hartsock. Yeah. Free agent acquisition Michael Turner is probably Ryan’s best option in the offense. In the whole offense.

Packers D-line vs. Turner: As I said before, the Falcons really do not a sufficient supporting cast around Ryan, except for Turner. The Falcons will be counting on Turner to be a horse until Ryan gets his feet under him. Blocking for Turner is fullback Ovie Mughelli, a very talented blocker that is expected to team with Turner to form a very good backfield.  Because of this, the pressure is on for Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett,  and Colin Cole to stop the run up the gut while getting support from Jenkins and Kampman on the outside.  The Falcons offensive line is below average, helping out the Packers a little bit and making Ryan and Turner’s lives miserable.

Mark Tauscher & Chad Clifton vs. Jamaal Anderson & John Abraham: The Packers stout bookend tackles face a tall task in this game against the quick Anderson and the skilled Abraham.  Clifton and Tauscher’s performance this season will affect the drafts of the future by Ted Thompson and of course it affects first-year starter Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers is going to need time to pick apart a weak Atlanta secondary, and the tackles must give him time.  The Packers O-line is a big question mark this year, but if Tauscher and Clifton show up to play, it won’t be that hard for Rodgers to develop.

The Verdict: The Packers win, 35-17.

The Packers are 4-1 through five games.

Week 3 appears to be one of the biggest games on the schedules for the Packers.  Last year the Packers went down the Irving, Texas (wait, I thought they played in Dallas?) to meet the Cowboys in a battle of 10-1 teams.  Many thought this game would be a preview of the NFC Championship Game later in the season.  Unfortunately not, as the Cowboys blew the divisional playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl-champion New York Giants.  The Cowboys started out fast and the Packers could not keep up, with the Cowboys taking the 37-27 victory and eventually control of the No. 1-seed in the NFC.  Not that it helped them, of course.  This game also gave Packer fans a taste of the future.  Former Packers quarterback Brett Favre suffered an elbow injury early in the game, paving the way for Aaron Rodgers to bring the Packers to within three points before the Pack Attack eventually succumbed.

This game showed that Rodgers could (hopefully) handle the pressure of being a starting quarterback in the NFL.  Other than that and some shifting on the Cowboys offensive line, both teams return with basically identical lineups.  This game will be exciting and it will be interesting to see how Rodgers responds in his second nationally-televised game in three weeks.  This will also be the first time John Madden broadcasts a Packers game that does not have Favre as the starter in 16 years.  I’m setting the over/under on Favre references at 20.  And I’m taking over.  Will Madden follow the ESPN approach and just bash, bash, and bash the Packers and Rodgers?  Or will he be rational?  I’m saying he’ll bash, but less than ESPN would.  Let’s get to the keys to this game:

Packers secondary vs. Cowboys wide receivers: In November, the Packers were torn apart by Tony Romo and the Cowboys air attack, as any or most Cowboys fans will be quick to tell you.  However, a large of group people are forgetting that Packers starter Charles Woodson missed this game with a toe injury, leaving Al Harris to fight Terrell Owens on his own.  This also led to botched coverages by Tramon Williams, Jarrett Bush, and whoever the hell else was back there on Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, and possibly Sam Hurd.  Putting Woodson back there changes the landscape of the secondary and makes it more difficult for Romo.  The safety trio of Atari Bigby, Aaron Rouse, and Nick Collins will also be counted on to bring the hammer down on the Cowboys wide receivers.  If Green Bay controls the secondary, they control most of the game.

Packers O-line vs. Cowboys front seven: Favre was absolutely wrecked last year in the pocket in this game.  Actually, there probably never was a pocket for most of it.  The four- and five-wide receiver sets that made the Packers so dangerous down the stretch worked to a disadvantage has Favre held on to the ball too long and allowed the Cowboys to bring an extra rusher, making him force some of his classic throws.  The Packers need their O-line to develop for this game.  Mike McCarthy does not want Rodgers on his back with Greg Ellis, DeMarcus Ware, and Zach Thomas on top of him for most of this one.  Veterans Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher will be counted on again to hold down the fort while the mess that is the interior line gets settled and hopefully gels for this game.  The Packers are also going to have to open up running lanes for Ryan Grant. Grant got in one good run last year against the Cowboys, but was stymied for the rest of the game.  They Packers got to get him going to take pressure off the passing game.

Cowboys secondary vs. Packers wide receivers and Aaron Rodgers: The Cowboys also revamped their secondary this offseason.  They locked up Terrence Newman and Ken Hamlin in the offseason, while Anthony Henry and Roy Williams (a glorified linebacker) return to the fold.  The additions are what makes this group key.  Mike Jenkins was a first-round draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft while Adam Jones (aka Pacman), if reinstated, gives the Cowboys a dangerous secondary for Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones to contend with.  This game will turn very physical, so the Packers will definitely need big wide receivers Ruvell Martin and rookie Jordy Nelson to step up and become factors.  Rodgers will need these guys to get open in order to be successful.

The Verdict: There’s so many more keys to this game than the ones mentioned.  The Cowboys really look like they are gearing up for a Super Bowl run this year and they seem to have the mindset for it, so the Cowboys get the nod, 38-24.

The Packers are now 2-1 after Week 3.