No active NFL head coach has a better-winning percentage than Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Believe it or not, LaFleur has been one of the most successful head coaches in the NFL since he became one back in 2019, but that certainly hasn't prevented him from coming under his share of scrutiny.
LaFleur is a branch of the Kubiak/Shanahan coaching tree, a tree loaded with branch after branch of fruitful offensive coaches through the years. LaFleur's first NFL job was with the Houston Texans in 2008 as an offensive assistant. He joined Mike Shanahan's staff in Washington in 2010 and Kyle Shanahan's staff in Atlanta in 2015.
After spending one year each under Sean McVay and Mike Vrabel, LaFleur finally got a shot of his own from the Green Bay Packers. Obviously, things have gone relatively well. The Packers have not won a Super Bowl under LaFleur, but they have obviously won a lot and accomplished a lot. LaFleur doesn't have the highest winning percentage among active coaches for no reason.
But going into 2023, expectations and pressure will be vastly different. LaFleur no longer has Aaron Rodgers under center and that will no longer be part of the narrative surrounding him as a coach. What are his top strengths and weaknesses going into 2023? Let's take a look.
3 strengths, 2 weaknesses for Matt LaFleur in 2023
Matt LaFleur strength: Starting from scratch
Although beauty is in the eye of the beholder on this one, I think it's very beneficial for Matt LaFleur to be basically starting from scratch. The Packers seemed to be somewhat of a unified front against Aaron Rodgers if you want to put it that way. They were obviously willing to work with him, maybe even wanted to work with him, but back in 2020, LaFleur and GM Brian Gutekunst made this bed together.
The Packers drafted Jordan Love in 2020 and it's going to take a monumental collapse from Love to really end up being a bad thing for LaFleur. In reality, he's likely bought himself at least two more seasons as head coach of the Green Bay Packers while Love gets his audition. The Packers understand that Love was drafted by this regime to play in LaFleur's offense. You see the way the team has supported the Love pick in the last couple of years by investing higher draft capital in offensive skill players, specifically at receiver and tight end.
LaFleur, we assume, is going to. get the opportunity to see these changes through. He's presumably going to get the opportunity to develop this, go through the necessary growing pains, and the expectations being heaped on him are no longer going to be immediately to win the Super Bowl. One of LaFleur's great strengths right now is the fact that the Packers are starting over at QB, and he's the one they want to see that change through.
Matt LaFleur weakness: No more Aaron Rodgers
The double-edged sword. You might think it's hypocritical to say in the same breath that the absence of Aaron Rodgers is a strength for LaFleur as well as a weakness, but there's no doubt that for the majority of his time as head coach of the team, Aaron Rodgers has been the tide raising all other boats in the harbor.
Not that LaFleur is incompetent and Rodgers has carried him -- LaFleur has obviously done a brilliant job of managing and leading the entire team given the fact that we've seen some epic failures in recent years when certain coaches and quarterbacks are brought together around the NFL. But on the field, Rodgers certainly makes everyone better and a player like that undoubtedly makes a coach's job easier.
No more Aaron Rodgers could mean a lot more aggressive looks from defenses that LaFleur is going to have to deal with when he's scheming ways to make life easier for Jordan Love. It could very well mean more loaded boxes for Aaron Jones.
And that, in particular, is something to park on for a little bit.
Last year, Aaron Jones faced a "loaded box" (8+ players in the box) just 10.8 percent of the time. Given the number of carries he had last year, that could effectively be called the lowest percentage among running backs in the entire NFL. He was near the bottom of the league in 2021 as well.
But in 2023, teams are going to force Jordan Love to be the one to beat them. They're going to load up the box and play much more aggressively against the run on early downs, which changes the game completely for Matt LaFleur. He's been able to rely on teams not loading the box with Rodgers under center but those days are in the past.
Matt LaFleur strength: Wide open division = playing with house money?
One of Matt LaFleur's biggest strengths heading into the 2023 NFL season is that I feel like the NFC North is rather wide open.
Some people are really buying the Minnesota Vikings after last season's impressive regular season which included enough intense one-score wins to maybe put a couple of gray hairs on Kevin O'Connell's head. The question is -- can the Vikings actually repeat (or exceed) what we saw last year?
Some people like the Detroit Lions, and understandably so. The Lions, although they didn't make the playoffs, left a lasting impression in the final week of the 2022-23 season, which unfortunately had to be at Lambeau in Aaron Rodgers' final game with the Packers. The Lions are talented, but they are the Lions. Will this be the year they're not the Lions? I'm not sure.
The Chicago Bears had the worst record in the NFL last year. Even with all of the upgrades they have made in 2023, it might take at least a year to put all the pieces together correctly. And even if that ends up being the case, I think Justin Fields is still at least a little bit of a wild card.
The NFC North is still wide open, if you're asking me, and because of that, who knows what could end up happening with this Packers team. It could end up being that nine or 10 wins are enough to win this division, in which case Matt LaFleur might make himself look like a coaching savant if he is able to lead the Packers into the postseason transitioning from a Hall of Fame quarterback to a complete unknown.
The point is -- LaFleur is playing (at least a little bit) with house money. It's a transition year. He can take risks. This is an evaluation year for Jordan Love and I think the Packers are willing to live with the results, good or bad.
Matt LaFleur strength: Alternatives in 2024 if things go south...
Let's just stew in the hypothetical realm for a moment. Let's say things really go south for the Packers in 2023. Let's say they lose 13 or 14 games, enough to put them in position for one of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The 2024 NFL Draft is expected to include a couple of superstar prospects in Caleb Williams out of USC and Drake Maye out of North Carolina. Williams has been compared to Patrick Mahomes for his playmaking abilities and Maye has drawn some comparisons to Trevor Lawrence coming out of Clemson.
Is this a remote possibility? Yes, it's very remote at this point. The Packers probably don't have a bad enough roster to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but the play of Jordan Love might ultimately dictate whether or not this team is able to win enough games to be in any sort of playoff discussion at all. I think the looming 2024 NFL Draft class is a huge advantage and strength for Matt LaFleur as a head coach, once again giving him the freedom of playing with that house money we mentioned in 2023.
If things go bad in 2023, like really bad, LaFleur and Gutekunst can say, okay, it wasn't Jordan Love. Who is it going to be? And the Packers can figure out a way to reset at the QB position quickly. Even beyond guys like Williams and Drake Maye, this year's quarterback class is expected to be a very good one overall, or the Packers could look for a veteran and try to snag a player like Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
The point is -- this is not a bad draft to be picking near the top of the order. There will be star prospects available and we've seen how quickly a prospect or two can turn a team around, like the Bengals with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase.
Matt LaFleur weakness: Backup quarterback situation
Not everyone is going to share this opinion, but the Packers' backup quarterback situation right now is an embarrassment. Just like a baseball manager can get good results with a poorly constructed lineup or poor usage of the bullpen, so can an NFL coach get good results from the backup quarterback despite a poor process.
The Packers may not need Sean Clifford or Alex McGough this season. They don't want to need either of those players. They want Jordan Love to play, and I get it. We all get it.
But the Detroit Lions just signed Teddy Bridgewater for pennies on the dollar and I don't understand why the Packers wouldn't do something like that. The Lions already have Jared Goff and rookie Hendon Hooker. They didn't exactly "need" another quarterback but a player like Bridgewater brings more to the table off the field than on it at this point. He sees the game well. Having a player like Bridgewater in your QB room elevates the room overall.
It's not about competition at this point. It's not even about "pushing" Jordan Love. It's about having another competent QB in your room who can be a valuable set of eyes, who can bring experience, and who can actually step into the lineup if something happens.
Let's play out another hypothetical scenario. Let's say the Packers are 6-3 through the first half of the season, and they are leading by 14 or more points in their 10th game. They're looking like they're going to move to 7-3 on the season and like they're going to be able to basically coast into the playoffs over the final seven games. Then, all of a sudden, Jordan Love gets hit hard and suffers some kind of injury. He's now forced to miss the next 4-6 weeks of games.
You're telling me that you're going to trot Alex McGough or Sean Clifford out there in meaningful NFL football games in November and December, just because you weren't willing to spend a couple million on a legitimate backup?
It's mind-boggling.
Players like Carson Wentz are still out there. Heck, call Matt Ryan out of retirement. LaFleur has worked with Ryan in the past. Do something here, because the current backup QB position is a setup for complete embarrassment in the right (or wrong) set of circumstances.