Chargers vs. Packers best NFL prop bets for Week 11
By Reed Wallach
It's been a dire season for the Packers, who are desperate for a win on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Can Jordan Love get on track against a poor Chargers secondary? I'm targeting the first year starter's passing yard prop in Week 11 in what could be a shootout at Lambeau Field. However, Justin Herbert and the Chargers should be able to answer the call in a back and forth affair.
Here are our three favorite player props for this matchup between two desperate teams. You can find our best bet for this one from betting expert Iain MacMillian in his weekly column, "The Road to 272!"
Best Prop Bets Chargers vs. Packers in Week 11
- Jordan Love OVER 227.5 Passing Yards
- Justin Herbert OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts
- Quentin Johnston UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards
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Jordan Love OVER 227.5 Passing Yards
Love's numbers are a bit concerning over the course of the season, but this number is simply too low.
The Utah State product has cleared this number in six of nine games, including three straight games. Now, he gets to face a Chargers defense that is 26th in EPA/Pass this season. This is a great opportunity for Love to get on track and put a big number on the scoreboard and pad his stats in a high scoring game.
Justin Herbert OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts
The Chargers are 10th in passing play percentage this season at nearly 60% on the year, and I expect a likely high scoring affair will yield a ton of volume from Herbert through the air.
The QB has gone over this total in five of nine games so this is a fairly average outcome, but I believe that the team is going to continue leaning on the passing game given that the team is fifth in EPA/Pass and 22nd in EPA/Rush. Kellen Moore will keep having his offense push the ball down the field against the Packers and I'm counting on about 40 pass plays.
Quentin Johnston UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards
Johnston continues to see a ton of reps in place of the injured Joshua Palmer, but I think he's being overrated in the player prop market, even if I believe the Chargers go to the pass often in this game.
The rookie out of TCU has had three and four targets, respectively, over the last two without Palmer on the field despite playing 80% or more in each of the past two games. He also has gone over this mark in each game. This number is artificially inflated based on his expected volume, but it hasn't been proven yet, and I'll pay to see it.
Go under on the overrated (in the betting market) rookie.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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