Brian Gutekunst may need to re-enter the safety free-agent market after yet another top draft prospect likely comes off the Green Bay Packers' board.
Minnesota's Tyler Nubin was considered a dream early-round target for the Packers. They need a safety who tackles well, has the range and coverage ability to play Jeff Hafley's single-high coverages, and forces turnovers. Nubin checks each box.
However, that's only part of the process. The Packers have strict size and athletic thresholds, especially in the early rounds. They occasionally make exceptions, but it's rare, and they usually only slightly bend their rules.
Nubin tested at his Pro Day, and it wasn't good news for fans hoping to see him wearing green and gold this season.
Tyler Nubin is likely off Packers draft board after Pro Day performance
Much like Kamren Kinchens after his NFL Combine performance, we can likely remove Nubin from the Packers' draft board.
There is a correlation between Packers draft picks and Relative Athletic Score. Under Gutekunst, Jayden Reed is the Packers' only selection in the opening two rounds without an "elite" RAS. His 6.74 still qualified for a "good" score.
Nubin falls well below that. After his Pro Day testing, he received a score of just 2.73 out of 10 at free safety and 3.36 at strong safety.
That almost guarantees the Packers won't use one of their premium picks on the Minnesota safety. Green Bay typically uses its early selections on prospects with "elite" RAS scores (8.0 and above). Nubin's RAS isn't even close to a "good" score (5.0 and above).
There's a reason behind the Packers' logic. The Leap's Peter Bukowski notes that only one NFL safety with an RAS as low as Nubin's has made a Pro Bowl since 2011.
Average Pro Bowl safety RAS since 2011 (new CBA) is 6.81.
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) March 20, 2024
Only 3 out of 19 players have an RAS below 5.
Only 1 was as low as Tyler Nubin's and it's Tyrann Mathieu, one of the best collegiate DBs of the last 25 years.
Where does that leave Green Bay?
Gutekunst needs to add at least one more safety this offseason to pair with free-agent addition Xavier McKinney. There are still options in free agency, but what about in the draft? If Nubin and Kinchens—considered the top two safety prospects earlier in the offseason—are off the board, who else is there?
Utah's Cole Bishop is a name to watch.
Bishop has the versatility the Packers will love. He could play various roles in Jeff Hafley's defense, although his best fit is likely in the box. In three seasons at Utah, Bishop made 21.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 12 pass defenses, and three interceptions.
He earned a 9.81 Relative Athletic Score, one of the best at his position after the NFL Combine.
Bishop could be a Day 2 target for the Packers. However, it's not a deep draft class, and Nubin's RAS makes life more challenging for Gutekunst. It could increase the need to sign another free agent.