Packers vs. Lions prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for Thanksgiving Day

Odds, trends, injuries, key players, and best bet prediction for NFL Week 12 action on Thanksgiving Day between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks (13) rushes for a touchdown against the Los Angeles
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks (13) rushes for a touchdown against the Los Angeles / William Glasheen / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The Green Bay Packers are fresh off their Week 11 win against the Los Angeles Chargers, and will now have a quick turn around as they prepare to take on the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

The two teams will serve as the opening act for the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Can the Packers keep their momentum going and pull of their second straight up?

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this game.

If you want to check out my best bet for all 16 NFL Week 12 games, you'll find them in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets."

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Packers vs. Lions odds, spread, and total

Packers vs. Lions betting trends

  • Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the Packers' last six games
  • Lions are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. Packers
  • Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in Detroit
  • Lions are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games
  • Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games

Packers vs. Lions injury reports

Green Bay Packers injuries

  • Rudy Ford - S - Questionable
  • Jaire Alexander - CB - Questionable
  • Dontayvion Wicks - WR - Questionable
  • Emanuel Wilson - RB - Questionable
  • Josiah Degura - TE - Questionable

Detroit Lions injuries

  • C.J. Gardner-Johnson - S - IR
  • Jonah Jackson - G - Questionable

Packers vs. Lions how to watch

  • Date: Thursday, November 23
  • Game Time: 12:30 pm EST
  • Venue: Ford Field
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Green Bay Packers Record: 4-6
  • Detroit Lions Record: 8-2

Packers vs. Lions key players to watch

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love: Every game from here one out is key for Jordan Love if he wants to convince Packers' management that he's the quarterback of the future for this game. He's coming off a strong performance against the Chargers where he completed 67.5% of passes for 322 yards and two touchdowns. Can he keep that up in a tough game against the Lions?

Detroit Lions

David Montgomery + Jahmyr Gibbs: The strength of the Packers' defense is their secondary, so the key for the Lions' success is going to be to get their run game going with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In their Week 3 meeting, Montgomery ran for 121 yards and three touchdowns. A repeat performance would go a long way in the Lions completing the series sweep.

Packers vs. Lions prediction and pick

The Lions are a good team, but they do have some red flags and holes that need to be addressed. Mainly, their defense is subpar at best, ranking 16th in opponent EPA/Play, 24th in opponent success rate, and 16th in opponent yards per play.

Their offense is clearly enough to still lead them to wins even when their defense doesn't hold up their end of the bargain, but covering spreads of higher than a touchdown is a different story.

Meanwhile, I think the Packers are better than their record indicates. They're 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.1 and ninth in Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.7). What should concern Lions fans the most is they rank ninth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.2) as their secondary has been stingy.

I set the Lions as a 6.5-point favorite so we're getting a point of value on this line that crosses the key numbers of seven. Give me the Packers and the points.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!