Is Jay Cutler one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL? The stats say yes.
Raymond T. Rivard photograph
Back in 2011, not long after I took over as the editor of this site, I wrote a piece about the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL and included on my list these names: Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez, and Tony Romo.
Today, The Bleacher Report’s Zach Kruse wrote a piece about the five most overrated players in the NFL utilizing computer-generated statistics that have come into vogue the past few years in rating players and teams. Among the players highlighted was Jay Cutler.
Though I looked at the statistics available way back in the dark ages of 2011, I posted my list based mostly on past performances, how the players were being viewed in the eye of the media and what those particular players’ future outlook was at the time.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo throws the ball against the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 28-18. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
It seems I hit the nail on the head as far as Cutler was concerned, and as far as Sanchez – he’s fallen so far off the radar that his presence isn’t even considered in 2013. So, was he overrated? Absolutely. Was Cutler? Without question.
For Romo, the statistics utilized by Kruse paint a pretty good picture for the Cowboys’ quarterback, but when you look at his won-loss record (which is reflective of the team – or lack thereof – around him), Wisconsin’s almost-famous son hasn’t done much. Though Jerry Jones is willing to pay through the nose for Romo’s services, in my opinion the quarterback is way overpaid and not much of a value to his team. The question in everyone’s mind is whether that perspective will change as the Cowboys improve as a team (they can’t get much worse, can they?). The jury is still out, but time is running out on Romo, who enters his tenth season in Dallas.
As for Cutler, injuries have hurt his production through the years, but even in a full season last year, his seventh in the league and his fourth with Chicago, he finished 27th among starting quarterbacks, according to Advanced NFL Stats, the stats utilized by Kruse.
Getting a fresh start under new coach Marc Trestman will most likely help Cutler. The question in my mind is whether it will be enough to lift Cutler out of the dregs of the past four years. Time will tell on that one.
Ditto for Romo.
As for Sanchez … well …
Just for kicks, I’ve tossed in the piece I wrote last year which recapped the 2011 piece. It might be dated, but I think much of what’s written at that time is still valid.
You be the judge …
Cutler, Sanchez And Romo – Still The Most Overrated QBs
By Raymond T. Rivard
Sometimes the more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same – at least that’s the case with the quarterbacks I called the most overrated more than a year ago.
Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and Tony Romo were at the top of my list on July 23, 2011, as I considered their value to their teams while we all waited for the eventual settlement of the NFL players lockout.
When we look at those three QBs in 2012, not much has changed. Though the Bears have built their team up around Cutler and the Bears sit at 4-1, he’s still not an elite leader – nor are Sanchez and Romo who have both been inconsistent the past year-plus.
Let’s take a look at what each has accomplished this year.
Cutler is 90-156 passing for 1,209 yards through five games – completing 57.7 percent of his passes. He’s got seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.
During Cutler’s four-year career in Chicago, he’s completed 869 passes in 1,457 attempts, a 59.6 percent completion rate. He’s thrown 70 touchdowns, but has had 56 interception. I wouldn’t say those are hall of fame statistics. If Aaron Rodgers had those types of numbers, Packers Nation would have run him out of town long ago.
Now on to Tony Romo – while he quarterbacks a team that sits at 2-2, he’s had a better go of it in 2012 than Cutler. He’s completed 66.9 percent of his passes, 101-151, for 1,148 yards. However, his five interceptions against Cutler’s Bears last week has inflated his interception total of eight this year. So far, he’s thrown just five touchdowns.
Now, let’s take a look at Sanchez, the darling of New York City Jets fans. We must ask right off – when will Rex Ryan finally get the message that Sanchez should be benched?
Sanchez’s team sits at 2-3. Sanchez has completed only 48.4 percent of his passes – 77-159, for 1,043 yards. He’s tossed six touchdowns and six interceptions.
Is it Tebow Time yet in New York. If Sanchez continues on this pace, Tebow will get his turn sooner than later.
So, my impressions of these three quarterbacks hasn’t changed much in 2012 from my original impressions in 2012.
Let’s take a look at what I posted last year. Check it out below:
"So now that we must wait until at least Monday for any more news about whether we we are going to have an NFL season, I thought I’d take a few potshots of my own and focus on three of my “favorite” players.So, here we go…Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez …Just what do they have in common?Well, other than the fact that they play for NFL teams in the three biggest markets, to me they are three of the league’s most overrated players.Romo, his only positive attribute being that he is a Wisconsin boy, plays for “America’s team,” but might as well be quarterbacking his Burlington High School squad. We’ll see what Jason Garrett can do with Romo this coming season, but to date (even when Garrett was handling the offense before becoming head coach) Romo hasn’t been able to pull together an offense over the course of a full season … nor has he been able to take his team to consecutive playoff wins.He simply doesn’t have what it takes to be a winner, nor does he seem to be able to stay healthy long enough to do it. How do we know he doesn’t have it? Well, if you’re playing for a team that puts a defense on the field like the Cowboys and the team still can’t win the big games, then it’s pretty obvious that he doesn’t have what it takes.His statistics are impressive. In five years in the league he has started 61 games and has a 39-22 record. He’s attempted 2,070 passes and completed 1,326 (64.1 percent) for 16,650 yards and 118 touchdowns. He also has a 95 quarterback rating … statistics that have earned him Pro Bowl appearances in 2006, 2007 and 2009. Injuries in 2010 kept him off the field and doomed the Cowboys.He threw for more than 4,000 yards in 2007 and 2009, but in my mind he’s still overrated because he hasn’t won the big games and until he does that, he’s just a guy in this league.He’s also a proven choker … consider the Seattle playoff game when he fumbled the snap.Consider Sanchez in the same category. The Jets defense is among the top five or top 10 in the league. The team has a solid offensive line … heck, he even had LaDainian Thomlinson in the backfield last year, but when the ball was placed in his hands to win a game, he seemed to always come up short.Though having played only two seasons in the league, maybe I’m jumping the gun on Sanchez, but he had better step into a bigger role this coming season. If he doesn’t, the Jets may just give up on the high 2009 draft pick … the player the team selected to replace Brett Favre.Sanchez has been reliable, starting 31 games in his first two seasons and has a 19-12 record. However, he’s completed just 474 of 871 passes (54.4 percent) and 5,735 yards and 29 touchdowns.His 33 interceptions in two seasons are also alarming for the Jets. That’s the type of statistic that isn’t going to win many fans or win many of the big games.Sanchez’s performance in the AFC Championship game last season against Pittsburgh was pathetic in the first half. Though he brought the team back in the second half, because of a soft defense by the Steelers, it wasn’t enough to win the game. The Steelers allowed the Jets enough room to make a game of it, but when it needed to stiffen, the Steeler defense did so. A good quarterback – a Manning, Rivers or Rodgers – wouldn’t allow their teams to get into that situation in the first place and in the second place, they would have finished that game with a comeback win. Sanchez didn’t. Maybe it’s his youth, maybe it’s just that he’s overrated.And of course we have to throw Jay Cutler into the mix.Yes, we all know he’s tough. His teammates, including Brian Urlacher, say so. We have to believe them.But if appearances are worthy of anything, all anyone has to do is see the pictures of Cutler on the sideline in last year’s NFC Championship game to understand that there’s something about Cutler that’s just not right.It’s attitude.For crying out loud, it was the NFC Championship AGAINST THE PACKERS! If Urlacher broke his leg, he would have been out there trying to kill Aaron Rodgers.His stats are OK … in the past two years with Chicago, Cutler has completed 597 of 987 attempts for 6,940 yards (60.5 percent). He has 50 touchdowns with the Bears, but only an 80.9 quarterback rating.His career statistics are very similar to Romo’s: 1,359 completions in 2,207 attempts for 15,964 yards (61.6 percent) and 104 touchdowns. But like Romo, Cutler hasn’t been able to lead his team to playoff wins. While he did lead the Bears to a division title last year, he couldn’t finish the job in two important games: The season finale in Green Bay and the championship game at home against the Packers.Until he can shake the “soft” moniker and win some playoff games, Cutler is going to be viewed like Romo – just a guy who racks up statistics, but can’t win.My guess is that these three “guys” will be just that for the remainder of their careers. They will win lots of games, but won’t win those that matter most.And for that, they will continue to be overrated year after year."