Green Bay Packers: Fantasy profile – week 3

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Sep 20, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back

James Starks

(44) is tracked down by Seattle Seahawks middle linebacker

Bobby Wagner

(54) during the second half at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

RB – Eddie Lacy, James Starks

Last Week:
Lacy – 3 carries, 9 rushing yards; 0.90 fantasy points
Starks – 20 carries, 95 rushing yards, 4 catches, 11 yards, 1 fumble lost; 8.60 fantasy points

Early in the game against Seattle, we had one of our fears come to fruition: our bowling ball runner went down with injury.

When it happened, I immediately expected things to start going south. Surprisingly however, it did not! James Starks admireably stepped in and despite a fumble produced a pretty decent night against the formidable Seattle defense.

Starks per-carry numbers were boosted by a 35-yard run, but in his chances overall he did enough to allow the offense to stay balanced often enough to get the points needed for a victory.

Sep 20, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back

Eddie Lacy

(27) carries the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

This week would be a tall task for both guys, even without the injury issues of Lacy. Kansas City has the #3 Defensive DVOA against the run so far this season, buoyed by the strength of Dontari Poe anchoring the middle and the return of Mike DeVito (he missed most of 2014 due to injury).

The Packers haven’t been slouches running the ball (#4 in rushing DVOA), lending to their blocking and talented runners, but we shouldn’t expect a huge day on the ground overall.

That being said, I do think it will be a decent combined output for Lacy and Starks.

My expectation is that Lacy will end up playing (right know he is listed as questionable, but I’ve seen plenty of hope that he will make it onto the field), but be given a limited amount of carries in a time-split situation. Because he’ll likely be somewhat slowed if he does play, I project Starks will actually outproduce him on the day.

If Lacy doesn’t end up playing, then Starks immediately becomes a guy to focus on having. While the overall yardage I’d expect him to produce would be great on it’s own, I can envision at least one score breaking through on the ground at some point. If Starks is the main recipient of those attempts in Lacy’s stead, he’ll likely be the one to see it.

Week 3 Prediction:
Lacy – 40 rushing yards, 5 receiving yards; 4.50 fantasy points
Starks – 55 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, 1 TD (1 rushing); 13.00 fantasy points

Verdict: Leery Play (Lacy); Good Injury Fill-In (Starks)