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Green Bay Packers: Fantasy profile – Week 4

By Kenn Korb

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Sep 28, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) scrambles between Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson (56) and linebacker Tamba Hali (91) in the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

QB – Aaron Rodgers

Last Week: 24/35, 333 passing yards, 5 passing TDs, 16 rush yards; 34.92 fantasy points

Though some metrics didn’t quite rate it as great (looking at you, Pro Football Focus), just about everyone can agree that Rodgers put on a clinic against Kansas City.

He was killing them all around the field in all sorts of ways:

– extending plays
– knowing exactly where, when and how to best attack the defense
– garnering free plays
– getting the ball out instantaneously to his receivers to make plays
– throwing guys open

As mentioned in previous posts of mine this week, I could go on for days.

When it comes to this matchup, we can expect to see more of the same.

In terms of DVOA*, Green Bay’s passing offense is sitting pretty at #1 overall by a decent margin. On the other side, San Francisco has one of the worst-rated pass defenses (#29 in pass defense DVOA).

Because this is a road game, I expect the offense to not be quite as deadly; many of those free plays we saw the past two weeks may not be as available, plus being on the road tends to suppress scoring to some degree by default.

Make no mistake however; Rodgers should have himself a fine game.

Maybe this time it’ll even be good enough to satisfy those stringent PFF metrics.

Week 4 Prediction: 275 passing yards, 3 TDs, 20 rush yards; 25.00 Fantasy Points
Verdict: How Can You Not Start Him?

*The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of those throws and what they mean for wins. It’s built from the team level down to the quarterback, where we understand first what each play means to the team, then give credit to the quarterback for what happened on that play based on what he contributed.

**DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.

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