Green Bay Packers: Week 11 Fantasy

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Nov 15, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

QB – Aaron Rodgers

Last Game: 35/61, 333 passing yards, 8 rush yards, 2 TDs; 22.12 fantasy points

Everyone has been talking about how bad the offense has been during this losing streak; a ton of that flak has been falling at Aaron Rodgers’ feet.

It’s easy to throw blame his way with how much quarterbacks are valued, but look at his production that we are hounding him about:

More from Lombardi Ave

Stats during the losing streak (3 games) — 74/131 (56.4% completion percentage), 779 yards, 6 TDs , 1 INT, 51.1 QBR

Suffice to say, he’s been average. We of course expect better from him, but come on people; all this blame and anger that has been spewed about how “terrible” he’s been lately, and he’s been just average at worst?

Maybe it’s just a testament to how great he usually is, but either way we need to calm down with any ridiculous affirmations here and let him work his way back into his usual production.

In terms of fantasy production, the hurry-up “schoolyard ball” approach Green Bay has gotten in the past two 4th quarters have brought on some eventual strong outputs for Rodgers; 33.96 against Carolina and 22.12 against Detroit.

I’m just not quite confident enough in the offense to produce a strong day, considering the opponent. The Vikings may not currently rank all that well in certain aspects defensively (#20 Defensive DVOA*, #18 Weighted** Defensive DVOA, #15 Pass Defense DVOA), but they have some advantages in their favor despite that.

They have a coach in Mike Zimmer that has successfully set up effective defensive gameplans to slow Green Bay and Rodgers in all previous matchups against them during his time in Cincinnati and now Minnesota. They have a handful of talented pass rushers, a good group of linebackers, and plenty of talented defensive backs; guys at all levels to line up pretty well against whatever Green Bay wants to throw their way.

While I do think Rodgers and the offense can potentially do something here, I’m taking a wait-&-see approach. The offense just has not been reliable and the matchup looks likely to provide a sizable challenge.

If you have other options available to you, you may want to pick one of those. If not, hope for more of that schoolyard ball.

Week 11 Prediction: 225 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yards; 17.50 Fantasy Points
Verdict: Wishing For A Better Matchup

*DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
**Weighted DVOA adds importance to more recent games.

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