Dec 3, 2015; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions running back Ameer Abdullah (21) is pursued by Green Bay Packers cornerback Sam Shields (37), free safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (21) and strong safety Morgan Burnett (42) during an NFL football game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Last Game: 23 Points Allowed, 3 Sacks, 1 Fumble Recovery; 5.00 fantasy point
The defense has been decent-to-excellent on the field for most of this year; at multiple instances they’ve been the sole reason these Packers have even had a chance to win these games.
The fantasy realm has been somewhat more fickle and unpredictable.
After having at least 6 fantasy points in five of the first six games, they have only reached that mark once in the 2-4 stretch since.
Still, if there is a week to want a certain team, this is lining up nicely for the Green Bay defense for many reasons.
In half of their games, this defense has held opposing offenses to 20 or less; Dallas has been pretty bad on offense in the games without Tony Romo this season (so, most of their games) so they could be expected to do so again.
Green Bay has 33 sacks on the season; only three games this year have seen them not take down the opposing QB at all, and then only one game among those remaining where they didn’t manage multiple sacks. Even with that strong offensive line, the Cowboys are in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing sacks (25; 18th in NFL).
In only one game this year has Green Bay not forced a turnover; they are on the lower end of total turnovers forced (15 total — 11 INTs, 4 Fumble Recoveries; 22nd in NFL) but tend to get one at some point in each game. This is an excellent opportunity for them to improve on that total; Dallas has the worst turnover differential in the league (-14) and is tied for #3 in total turnovers of any team (22). A multi-interception game is a definite possibility here.
The final piece to pay attention to is Dallas’ Offensive DVOA. Right now, the Cowboys rank #30 in Offensive DVOA, #30 in Weighted Offensive DVOA, #28 Pass Offense DVOA, and #18 in Run Defense DVOA.
Suffice to say, this offense is not good by any measure. They do have weapons such as Dez Bryant, but consistently poor play from under center has usually undermined any good play from the pieces around him. It isn’t a coincidence that Dallas’ victory over Washington was their first of the season without Tony Romo taking the quarterback snaps; even in that case, it took a terribly ugly game and some good luck (like poor decision-making on Washington’s side) to come away with that one.
Green Bay would definitely like to build on that huge Detroit victory, and their defense is the area most likely to have the bigger impact here.
Week 14 Prediction: 10 Points Allowed, 3 Sacks, 3 Forced Turnovers (3 INTs); 13.00 fantasy points
Verdict: Major Potential