Green Bay Packers Week 3 fantasy profile – Who’s up? Who’s down?
By Kenn Korb
Green Bay Defense
Week 2 Statistics: 17 Points Allowed, 4 Sacks, 1 Fumble Recovery; 7.00 fantasy points
Just as they did during the second half of last season, while the offense has struggled it has been the Green Bay defense which has kept this team in games and really become the strength of the Packers.
The front seven of this team especially has coalesced into a powerful group, allowing just 78 rushing yards (1st in NFL) in two games so far while mounting consistent pressure with their pass rush (tied 4th in NFL with 7 sacks). In terms of Defensive DVOA, they are #10 — as well as #1 in Run Defense DVOA.
The issue so far with them has been what was supposed to be their strongest area: the secondary. Green Bay has made a conscious effort to get younger at the position, and last season it seemed to work out exceedingly well; despite multiple rookies and 2nd-year guys taking significant snaps in 2015, the team ranked #6 in Pass Defense DVOA.
This year however, those young guys at corner are getting taken advantage of. In Week 1, Quinten Rollins got attacked with multiple players and gave up a lot of plays to Jacksonville; Week 2, Damarious Randall had Stefon Diggs digging his grave for him all night. With Sam Shields downed by another concussion, these guys will only see more time out there, and if they cannot stop allowing big plays in key moments it won’t matter how well the front seven plays.
Even with their failings so far though, the team has only dropped to #16 in Pass Defense DVOA through two games, and this matchup could surprisingly work more in their favor.
Detroit as a diverse set of receivers to choose from, but their overall style is different from what they past two teams could throw their way. Jacksonville can attack deep over the top, while Minnesota has a receiver in Diggs who can make catches of all brands against all types of coverages. Detroit on the other hand calls tons of quick-release passes to guys like Golden Tate who are best at making things happen after the catch.
This presents a problem of its own (quick tackles are a necessity, something that has been a problem in the past for Green Bay), but I think keeping everything in front of their corners seems to be the best option for them currently. By not having to worry as much about the deep shot (Tate and others can go deep at times, but Detroit’s scheme so far hasn’t utilized that aspect too often), they are able to focus on a less broad task and could find hopefully find their footing.
Something else to consider in this matchup is the offensive line of the Lions. The group is pretty young, but for the most part have played well so far this year (per PFF, four of their five starters have at least a 77.0 grade through two games, with three having a grade over 80.0); add in the quick throws they utilize often, it could prevent the Packers from applying consistent pressure.
The left side of that line is a weak point however, and that works out well for the Packers; that just so happens to be where Mike Daniels and Clay Matthews line up, so this is a huge opportunity for them to have big games. With those two expected to take advantage of their matchups, if the litany of other pass rushers on the Green Bay roster can break through this young offensive line things could get ugly for Matthew Stafford.
I don’t expect total domination, but a strong performance with lots of pressure applied is well within their means.