Green Bay Packers: Week 8 fantasy football profile
By Kenn Korb
Green Bay Defense
Week 7 Statistics: 4 Points Allowed, 1 Sack, 2 INTs; 12.00 fantasy points
I was expecting a strong showing from this group, and they delivered — though not in the fashion I had thought would occur.
I expected this game to turn into a sack-fuelled, turnover-filled massacre of the Bears’ offense; while there were a couple picks, the sacks didn’t come. Instead, the defense let up a total of just four points — one of which was a PAT after Rodgers fumbled the ball away for a Chicago defensive touchdown — while shutting down whatever the Bears wanted to try doing.
On the night, Chicago couldn’t even manage 200 yards combined offensively. The run game had a couple nice plays, but still ended the game with only 69 yards on the ground on 18 carries. The passing game was only able to provide 10 completions and 120 yards between two different quarterbacks, with neither pre-broken-arm Brian Hoyer or thrust-into-playing Matt Barkley able to take advantage of an injury-hampered Green Bay secondary.
This week presents a much more dangerous matchup in the Falcons.
They come in with an offense rated #2 in Offensive DVOA (including #3 Pass Offense DVOA, #6 Run Offense DVOA). Matt Ryan leads the charge for the Falcons, and though he has cooled off some from the way-too-early MVP talk he was receiving during a 4-1 start for his team he’s still at worst a semi-elite quarterback at worst right now. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman give them a two-headed monster in the backfield which can both run and catch with aplomb. And of course, there’s world-destroyer Julio Jones at wide receiver.
Green Bay seems to have been handed at least a little bit of luck here with Coleman possibly missing the game, but Atlanta’s other major weapons could do plenty of damage on their own.
Julio is going to get his regardless of what the Packers throw at him, and I wholeheartedly expect a statline reminiscent of what he put up against the Packers last time he faced them (11 catches, 259 yards, 1 TD in that 2014 matchup), so the key to a win for Green Bay likely lies in how they fare against the other weapons at Matt Ryan’s disposal.
Outside of Jones, I don’t see the other receiving options making much impact here (though that will partially be because they don’t really need to), so the running game will be what to watch.
Green Bay has done an excellent job against the run in five of their six games, but that one bad game may not be an outlier as much as it is an indicator of the level of competition they faced in their victories. Those wins saw teams all rated in the lower third of the league in terms of Run Offense DVOA — Jacksonville (29), Minnesota (32), Detroit (28), New York Giants (24), and Chicago (21) — and most of those teams were down at least one key member of their run game for those contests.
The bad game was their laughably bad effort against the Cowboys, where they let Dallas rack up 191 yards on the ground. Dallas is the best in Run Offense DVOA, and Green Bay seemed massively outclassed in that particular battle. Atlanta isn’t on that level, but they do rank #6 in Run Offense DVOA, so they are much closer to Dallas’ level than what the Packers have shown able to shut down thus far. With Coleman not in — and Atlanta’s offensive line being nowhere near Dallas’ in quality — they may be able to sustain a better effort here against a quality running game.
If they do, the litany of pass rushers Green Bay has will get more opportunities to unleash themselves upon Matt Ryan. If they can get pressure on him, Ryan has shown a tendency to make mistakes and errant throws (like he did towards the end of their games last week against San Diego).
To be clear, my projections for this unit are going off a winning scenario for the Packers. This game can turn really bad if the Packers’ coaches don’t find some way to slow Julio at least a little — or let his less-capable brethren produce due to weighing the coverage too heavily his way — so these projections could easily be blown out of the water by an explosive offense with an otherworldly receiver leading the charge.
If you have another decent option, I would turn to that first. If not, it might be worth the risk if you believe the Packers are capable of mucking things up with their front seven and forcing an error or two out of Ryan.
Week 8 Prediction: