Green Bay Packers: Fantasy football profile Week 11

Nov 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) is tackled by Tennessee Titans safety Kevin Byard (31) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee defeated Green Bay 47-25. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (87) is tackled by Tennessee Titans safety Kevin Byard (31) during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Tennessee defeated Green Bay 47-25. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Green Bay Packers running back James Starks (44) runs for a short gain during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 13, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Green Bay Packers running back James Starks (44) runs for a short gain during the first half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports /

RB – James Starks, Ty Montgomery, Christine Michael

Week 10 Statistics:

Starks– 7 carries, 33 rushing yards, 3 catches (4 targets), 11 yards, 1 TD; 10.40 fantasy points
Montgomery – 3 carries, 9 rushing yards, 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yards; 2.00 fantasy points
Michael – 5 carries, 22 rushing yards, 1 catch (1 target), 4 yards; 2.60 fantasy points [w/ SEA]

For most of this season, the running game for the Packers has been abysmal.

On the year, they are in the bottom section of the league for rushing yards (922 total; #21 in NFL), are middling in terms of advanced statistics (#17 in Rush Offense DVOA), have just one game with a 100+ yard rusher (Eddie Lacy: 103 yards, Week 3), seen only three rushing TDs (all by Aaron Rodgers), and given rushing chances to eight different players (Lacy, Rodgers, Starks, Montgomery, Randall Cobb, Aaron Ripkowski, Don Jackson, and Knile Davis). The past couple weeks have done no favors to them either, as Green Bay has fallen into huge holes which prevented them from even trying to run.

In theory at least, this week seems to be a chance to do better in that regard.

Starks is in his second game back from a meniscus injury, and he should see the majority of rushing opportunities here. He isn’t particularly good — Pro Football Focus has him as their #51-graded running back so far this year — but Washington has a defense which should have some holes to attack. They rank #30 in Run Defense DVOA, so the holes should be there even with Barclay being a major weak spot on the offensive line. As with the past couple weeks, this could be another high-scoring affair, so the rushing chances may yet again be lower than hoped if Washington racks up an early lead (quite possible).

With Starks set to get most of the action, we unfortunately aren’t likely to see much of Montgomery anymore. Between Starks having the rushing load and with the Jordy Nelson/Cobb/Davante Adams trio snapping up most of the wide receiver snaps, there doesn’t appear to be many opportunities for him to get on the field now. That is a major mistake by Green Bay in my mind — Montgomery offers a much better presence for the offense from the backfield than Starks — but last week showed us that even in his first game back from a knee injury it is Starks is who the Packers would prefer to go with.

Michael is an interesting pickup we should keep an eye on. He fell out of favor in Seattle despite being their leading rusher to this past week, having 4 games with at least 60+ rushing yards and 7 total TDs despite playing behind an atrocity of an offensive line; if he’s given chances in Green Bay, he might provide the Packers with a modicum of success on the ground behind a massively better blocking group ahead of him. I’m hesitant to expect the Packers to go right to him though, so I’d say watch him for a couple weeks before making a move on him.

Week 11 Prediction:

Starks – 60 rushing yards, 1 catch, 15 yards, 1 TD; 13.50 fantasy points
Montgomery – 15 rushing yards, 2 catches, 15 yards; 3.00 fantasy points
Michael – 0 rushing yards, 0 catches, 0 yards; 0.00 fantasy points

Verdicts: Low-End Option (Starks); Backup Duty (Montgomery); Check Back In Two Week (Michael)