Packers vs. Giants: Three things to watch in wild-card showdown

Wild Card Weekend comes to a close Sunday night with the marquee matchup of the first round: the Green Bay Packers (10-6) hosting the New York Giants (11-5).

Here’s three things that could determine the outcome of the game.

1. Jared Cook

Jared Cook has already been one of my keys in a few games this season, but he’s undoubtedly going to be important on Sunday in his first playoff game.

The first reason is that the Giants are exceptional at shutting down opponents’ top receivers behind cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The second is that they’ve had far less success against tight ends.

As shown in Warren Sharp’s tweet above, the Giants rank second in passer rating allowed against wide receivers and running backs (72.4), but just 14th against tight ends (93.0). That signals an obvious opportunity for Cook to shine.

Cook’s impact on the offense has been larger than anyone could have reasonably predicted. His health in the later part of the season has coincided with Aaron Rodgers’ and the offense’s resurgence. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Rodgers has tossed 17 touchdowns to just one pick with Cook on the field.

Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams might be able to break loose for a few big gains, especially when Rodgers escapes the pocket. But it will be very tough against these corners. That could leave Cook as a crucial ingredient in a potential shootout.

Look for Rodgers to target Cook on some plays on third down and in the red zone. If the explosive tight end can have reliable hands and create yardage after the catch, it will go a long way toward solving the New York defense.

2. Packers’ Front 7

With Odell Beckham Jr. coming to town and a long list of injured defensive backs, the secondary might seem to be the key defensive group.

And the cornerbacks will certainly be important. But Dom Capers is likely to play two deep safeties for the majority of the contest to protect his cornerbacks. That would shift the burden to the Packers’ front seven players to stop the run and make sure Eli Manning doesn’t have unlimited time to pick apart the coverage.

When the Packers played the Giants the first time around, they didn’t have much of a ground game to speak of. The Packers had little trouble containing Bobby Rainey, Orleans Darkwa, and Paul Perkins to 42 yards on the ground.

Now, things are different. Perkins has emerged as the Giants’ feature back, carrying the ball 21 times for 102 yards last week against Washington. Perkins has exceptional vision and agility and can make the Packers pay if they don’t fill run gaps with discipline and make sure tackles.

In addition to stopping the run, it will be crucial to get pressure on Eli Manning. Manning isn’t at all mobile (though Brock Osweiler did burn this defense with his legs earlier in the year, so anything is possible) and he’s prone to tossing interceptions if harassed by pass rushers.

The Giants’ offensive line is good, but not great. The weaknesses are at tackle. Ereck Flowers is a mess in pass protection on the left side, and Packers fans will remember the limitations in the run game of right tackle Marshall Newhouse. That leaves opportunities for Nick Perry, Julius Peppers (in possibly his last playoff run), Datone Jones, and Clay Matthews to make some game-changing plays.

Containing Beckham is a huge task for this Packers secondary. But if the front seven can get pressure on Manning and shut down the run game, it becomes much more manageable.

3. Young Players

The big names are Rodgers, Matthews, Nelson, etc. But there’s a good chance that this game will come down to a couple of crucial plays from the Packers’ young players.

Remember last year’s divisional playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals? Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis were unlikely stars. But a missed coverage assignment from Damarious Randall in overtime cost the Packers the game.

Heading into this game, there’s several young players poised to play crucial roles.

Randall was a full participant in practice on Thursday, so he’ll be a key part of trying to shut down the Giants passing attack. He’ll be joined by second-year player Ladarius Gunter as well as possibly the seldom used undrafted rookie cornerbacks, Josh Hawkins and Herb Waters.

Meanwhile, rookie Blake Martinez and second-year player Jake Ryan will man the middle linebacker positions.

On the offensive side of the ball, Bryan Bulaga is questionable with an abdomen injury. If he’s unable to play, rookie Jason Spriggs would take his place. Similarly, undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison could play a prominent role if Randall Cobb is held out or limited in any way.

The starting backfield is comprised of two second-year players in Ty Montgomery and Aaron Ripkowski.

There may not be another team which consistently relies on young talent as much as the Packers do. Sometimes, it can be a brilliant strategy. In 2010, for instance, the team got huge contributions from rookies Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji.

But last year, Randall’s inexperience potentially cost the Packers their season.

Can Montgomery and Ripkowski be reliable in blitz pickup? Can Randall and Gunter prevent big plays? Can Allison continue to produce?

The answers to these questions could determine the fate of the Packers’ season.

Next: Turnovers Contributing to Late Year Success

Prediction

Packers 27, Giants 24

I don’t think this game will be as high-scoring as many do. No matter how well Aaron Rodgers is playing, the Giants still have a really, really good pass defense. I’d be surprised if they could move the ball at will.

Meanwhile, the Packers’ defensive backs are certainly hurting. But Eli Manning has been inconsistent at best this year. Conservative coverage and pressure from the front seven could be enough to hold the Giants’ passing game in check.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Mike McCarthy will have the Packers playing hard and with a solid gameplan. His teams recently seem to save their best efforts for the playoffs. But can they actually close out the game and win?

With the home field advantage of Lambeau Field, I think Rodgers drives the Packers into position for a late Mason Crosby field goal to send the Packers to the second round.