Packers 2017 schedule release: Game-by-game predictions
By Kenn Korb
Week 11: vs. Baltimore Ravens
It wasn’t that long ago where Baltimore was right there with Green Bay as a premier team and perennial playoff staple.
Things have changed drastically.
It all starts at the quarterback spot. Both teams pay huge sums for their guys, but one has Aaron Rodgers while the other has Joe Flacco; Rodgers stays among the league’s elite even in what are down years (his 87.3 Pro Football Focus grade in 2015 was his lowest as a starter), a level Flacco has never reached even at his best (85.6 PFF grade in 2009) and has spent the majority of his career as the epitome of average (six of his nine seasons haven’t even reached an 80).
The moves these teams have made around their quarterbacks has been a huge part of the story as well. While Green Bay doesn’t often spend big on free agents, they draft tons of young players, develop them well, then extend many of them to second and third contracts. Baltimore in theory tries this same sort of path, but recently they’ve fallen short on numerous picks, leading them to let those players filter out quickly and need to delve into quick fixes in free agency.
Free agents tend to be more expensive, which can hamper an already-strained financial situation even more, and they also don’t tend to be players who stick around more than a couple seasons because of that and the deterioration of their skills through age/injury. This has all helped lead Baltimore to the be the middling team we’ve seen lately, and that has a good chance of continuing this year as well.
Middling teams aren’t exactly bad though; more-so, they tend to have peaks and valleys which are more heavily affected by things like injuries and scheduling than those teams which fight for top playoff seeding. This means that while they can lose to a lot of teams on the wrong week, they could also beat many teams on the right one.
Unfortunately, this could be one of those such games.
Baltimore may not be settled long-term with guys like Tony Jefferson and Eric Weddle at safety, but it is vastly better than what they had before. Having that group of safeties will make things even easier for a defense which was actually among the league’s best last season (#6 Defensive DVOA).
In a rough-and-tumble outing, things could get rough for the Packers. Even with a great offensive line last year, that was weighted heavily towards pass-blocking. The run blocking was average at-best across the board, and one of their best players for both (T.J. Lang) is now with the Lions, leaving a gaping hole at RG that appears set to be held down by the immortal Don Barclay (excuse me while I vomit at the thought of that).
No luck running the ball will lead to heavy reliance on passing, and that can lead to stalled drives in a hurry, giving the Ravens plenty of chances to attack what could still be a bad Packers secondary.
This seems like exactly the sort of game the Ravens want to force, and even if their year does end up mired in mediocrity at the end of it all, they could do enough damage to Green Bay’s plans here to pull out a marquee victory on the leg of their always-awesome kicker Justin Tucker.
Ravens 26, Packers 24 (7-3)