Green Bay Packers: NFC North over/under projections for the 2017 regular season
Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under Wins Forecast: 8.5
Minnesota’s offense was flat-out abysmal in a number of key categories during an underachieving 8-8 season after entering 2016 as one of the handful of top Super Bowl contenders.
Their journey started off on the wrong foot with a preseason injury to Teddy Bridgewater that forced them to give up a first-round pick for Eagles’ quarterback Sam Bradford.
The veteran signal caller’s debut in Week 2 coincided with a season-ending MCL tear to Hall-of-Famer-in-waiting Adrian Peterson that put Bradford in the unenviable position of having to lead a supporting cast that couldn’t pass protect nor run the football.
Predictably, the Purple and Gold ranked 23rd in points (20.8) and finished dead last in rushing yards.
Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is implementing significant changes in the offseason by transitioning to a zone-blocking scheme that favors offensive linemen with superior movement skills over stationary road graders that move defenders off the ball.
Similarly, the organization allowed Peterson to shop his services elsewhere and replacing the team’s all-time leading rusher with new faces that are comfortable lining up in shotgun and catching passes out of the backfield in Latavius Murray and second-round pick Dalvin Cook.
Jerick McKinnon is back as the team’s change-of-pace option. He caught 43 balls the year prior.
As for the passing game, Bradford was both accurate and efficient by completing a league-best 71-percent of his pass attempts and tossing only five interceptions in his 15 starts.
Many of those throws, however, barely traveled past the line of scrimmage given the constant pressure the former Heisman Trophy winner was under.
His numbers, in fact, weren’t nearly as prodigious inside the 10 yard line, where his completion percentage dipped down to 54.8 percent and where No. 8 only threw 10 touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference.
For the sake of comparison, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees fired 24 and 22 touchdowns inside that same 10-yard area.
They key to building a more prolific attack all starts with newly signed bookends Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers at the left and right tackle positions, respectively.
The other determining factor will be how quickly Cook can get up to speed and eventually take over the lion’s share of touches in the backfield.
If the highly-touted rookie ball carrier can steer clear of injuries that have plagued him in the past, he possesses rare elusiveness, instincts and burst to dominate and open things up for his quarterback and the rest of the passing game.
The defense remains one of the top handful of units equipped with depth up front, on the edges, at inside linebacker and in the secondary.
Free safety Harrison Smith is one of the few components they can ill-afford to lose, along with nose tackle Linval Joseph. The defense’s level of play dipped considerably in games they missed over the past two seasons.
The continued emergence of Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks helped make the Vikings’ front seven a top-10 group in the eyes of Pro Football Focus (PFF) analysts.
The upcoming schedule shapes up as a potential tale of two seasons for Mike Zimmer and company, as the first half looks to be very manageable on paper. The last eight games, however, could be a bear.
A late-year five-game stretch that has the Vikings on the road four times in games @Detroit, @Atlanta, @Carolina, versus Cincinnati and @Green Bay could signal a post-Thanksgiving collapse.
Minnesota is counting on far too many new pieces to emerge both on the offensive line and in the backfield for them to sustain continued success throughout the season, despite their stout defense.
Projected Record: 8-8. The Vikings should keeps things competitive in most ball games, but it’s doubtful that they’ll have enough to go blow-for-blow with the likes of Matt Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and the aforementioned Rodgers on the schedule. Take the under.