Best sports gambling bets for Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Throughout the season we’ll break down the lines and totals for the Green Bay Packers against all their opponents.

The Packers have a lot on their plate heading into their Week 1 rivalry game against the Chicago Bears. Multiple storylines will be at play on the field, but we’re here to talk about the plays off the field.

For a crash course in sports betting concepts and terminology, you can read more here.

Please remember to always play responsibly. Do not wager any money you do not have and do not take anything I say here or in the future as fact. No bet is guaranteed. I do not personally gamble on sports, I only entertain the concept as an additional way to enjoy and discuss sports. I do not encourage gambling.

The Spread

Oddsshark currently shows the Packers as anywhere between 7.5 to 8 point favorites over the Bears. Following the Packers’ lines is tough because they’re such a popular, national fan base, but it doesn’t appear to have moved too much from its opening number. My initial reaction is 7.5 is a ton of points. If you’re in a spot where you like the Packers and want them to cover, at a number this high, everything matters. Getting Green Bay -7.5 is huge vs. getting it at -8.

For comparison, the Packers are the largest favorites in Week 1 of the NFL schedule. The Saints are 7 point favorites over the Buccaneers, and the Steelers are only 6.5 point favorites over the Browns. Pittsburgh’s number may be higher if it were hosting Cleveland, but on the road, the spread is still significantly less than Green Bay’s.

It’s very interesting this line hasn’t been bet down to offer more value to Packers bettors yet. The Bears are a trendy team to improve on last year’s record and just landed Khalil Mack who should improve an already solid defense. I would guess the line moves a bit closer towards 7 or 6.5 as the week goes on because of this. Getting on the other side of that number 7 is huge in football.

I wouldn’t wager on this line this early in the week unless you’re way up on the Bears. The line should only increase in value for the Packers’ side.

The Total

The total currently sits at 47.5, which, combined with the spread, predicts a score of roughly 28-20 in favor of the Packers. This final score has the Packers covering 7.5 and hitting the over, but it could just as easily be 27-20 and see the Bears cover while hitting the under.

The total might be more easy to predict here. In the last 10 matchups between the Packers and Bears, the final score has gone over 47.5 points six times, while being under four times, but each time it has gone over there has been a team that posted at least 30 points of its own in the game.

This spread/total suggests no team will reach 30 points Sunday night, which leads me to believe it’s predicted to be a low-scoring game. The total may be too high.

In an early-season divisional game with so many new pieces involved, it’s easy to see a slow start for both teams. The Bears are introducing an entirely new offense, and the Packers are bringing new pieces to the table on that side of the ball as well.

Pair that with a new head coach in Chicago who might not have things squared away yet, and the fact that both defenses should be better than last year’s versions, the under in this one feels good.

The Play

If you’re making a wager now, I would say the Bears keep the game within a touchdown. If you’re able to find a number later in the week as low as Packers -6.5, or better, I might take that side then. But I definitely don’t think the offenses will be clicking well enough to see these teams scoring into the 30’s.

With new offenses and high-scoring battles being what everybody hopes for, the over could be obliterated, but I don’t think this is the kind of game that sees that happen. There should be good value on the under. Hope for good defense from Mike Pettine and you should be fine here.

Official play: Wait on the line (if you want to wager on the Packers); Under 47.5.