Packers: Khalil Mack won’t have big Week 1 impact
By Paul Bretl
Khalil Mack won’t have a big impact on the game against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.
It has been a handful of days since the Chicago Bears acquired Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders and in that time we’ve seen many different stories on what his impact will be. Mack is a great defensive player and will most likely have a good career in Chicago.
However, if we focus in on what his impact will be during Week 1 in Green Bay, I can confidently answer that it will be minimal. Mack will make some nice tackles, maybe break up a pass but he won’t define this game.
There is only one position in all of football that could drastically change a team’s outlook, and that is the quarterback.
Mack missing offseason workouts
Due to his relationship, or lack thereof with Raiders coach Jon Gruden, Mack has been holding out in 2018 and has not been a part of minicamp, training camp, or any preseason game this summer. He hasn’t been on the football field in live action since the Raiders’ 2017 season concluded.
So at this point, we do not exactly know what kind of shape Mack is in. Now he’s one of the best defensive players in the league, so I assume he’s taken care of himself this offseason. But ask any football player and they will tell you that there is “being in shape” and there is “being in football shape”. Mack may be the first but he isn’t the latter.
Over the last three seasons, the Green Bay Packers offense has averaged 65 snaps per game and runs a lot of no-huddle, quick tempo offense with Aaron Rodgers.
Without being part of team workouts this offseason, this type of offense could prove to be an issue for Mack. I don’t anticipate him playing more than 30 to 35 snaps in Week 1.
Mack will also have just a week in Chicago to learn the Bears’ defensive scheme. He’s an explosive player and has a great nose for the ball but may be limited on some of the Bears’ defensive plays due to lack of familiarity.
The Bears will probably have some specific sets meant for Mack to get him in the game but there will be some limitations in the defensive playbook for him.
Packers offensive line play
The Packers’ offensive line comes in to the 2018 season with a top 10 ranking overall by Pro Football Focus (PFF) and has been one of the more consistent OL groups for the past few years.
Green Bay will have both starting tackles, David Bahktiari and Bryan Bulaga, who as a duo is one of the better tackle combos in the NFL when healthy. On blitzes from Mack, outside by the tackles is most likely where he will be rushing from, battling with Bahktiari and Bulaga.
Mack’s only game against Green Bay was back in 2015. It was a game that the Packers won and it turned out to be a lackluster performance by Mack. He was able to get one sack, but that was due to Rodgers scrambling, not because of offensive line play. He was also only able to record one tackle and one assisted tackle that game.
The Aaron Rodgers factor
When Mack is rushing the quarterback, he is going to have to deal with bringing down Aaron Rodgers. With his pocket vision, escapability, and quick release, Rodgers is one of the tougher quarterbacks to bring down for a sack.
Rodgers is also one of the most accurate QBs of all-time while being on the move, so if Mack is able to get to him in the pocket, rolling out and finding an open receiver will only be a minor inconvenience for Rodgers.
As we look back at past Packers-Bears games, let’s not forget about some other great Bears linebackers/pass rushers that Rodgers has had to deal with.
The Bears have had Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers and others trying to chase down Rodgers for years. They’ve had their moments of success, but overall Aaron Rodgers has dominated this rivalry.
He boasts a 15-4 record against Chicago and one of those losses was due to Rodgers leaving early with a collarbone injury. Mack won’t be the Bears’ first great defensive player that the Packers have had to face.
Running game
Mack’s biggest impact may come in stopping the Packers’ running game. He hasn’t had much time to watch film on the Packers’ offense, but depending on how quickly he can dissect the play, he will make some stops for the Bears.
Unfortunately for Chicago, running the ball is the Packers’ second option, and they’ll still have to deal with stopping Rodgers and the receiving corps.
Next. Top 30 moments in Green Bay Packers history. dark
Khalil Mack is a great player and will be in on some tackles and he may even get a sack. However, he will not be the reason why the Packers win or lose this Sunday night. He may be more of a factor when the teams reconvene at Soldier Field on December 16, but as far as Week 1 goes, the Packers win easily.