Packers: Comparing free agent pass rushers to franchise tagged
Comparing free agent edge rushers to players who were franchise tagged.
Top pass rushers DeMarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, and Jadeveon Clowney joined Dee Ford (March 2) in being offered one-year franchise tags on Monday.
It would seem at first glance as though the Green Bay Packers won’t have a shot at these top pass rush free agent options, perhaps not surprisingly.
Despite the franchise tag, Ian Rapoport at NFL.com reported that the Cowboys and Lawrence are not close on a long-term contract.
In the case of Dee Ford, Rapoport reported the Chiefs are “open” to trading him. The Chiefs may be actively shopping a trade for the breakout player in spite of the tag. The Packers have both the cap space and extra draft picks with which to make a play for Ford if they decided it was worth it.
Who’s left?
In the end, if these tagged players stay with their respective franchises, who will still be left on the market as potential free-agent pass-rushers, and how do they compare to the players deemed worthy of franchise tags by their organizations?
In an effort to compare the players’ ability to get pressure on the quarterback, I tallied their sacks, TFL, and QB hits then divided this total by the number of snaps they played in 2018 to get a percentage of the snaps they played, that could be expected to end in one of those impact defensive plays.
Tagged players
DeMarcus Lawrence (6.60 percent – one-year, $20.57 million contract on franchise tag)
Dee Ford (5.37 percent – $15.44 million)
Frank Clark (6.87 percent – $17.13 million)
Jadeveon Clowney (5.11 percent – $15.44 million)
*All franchise tag numbers according to Spotrac
Still free agents
Trey Flowers (5.01 percent – Spotrac projected market value: $15.7 million per year)
Alex Okafor (2.74 percent)
Ezekiel Ansah (9.59 percent – Spotrac projected market value: $13.5 million per year)
Za’Darius Smith (6.29 percent)
Dante Fowler Jr. (5.36 percent -2017)
Clay Matthews (2.98 percent)
Just out of the free agents I decided to run, comparisons on several line up closely with tagged players based on my crude metric.
Trey Flowers’ productivity lines up closely with Ford’s and Clowney’s, and so does his expected cost to sign.
Ezekiel Ansah’s result looked out of line so I checked it against his other years and found he had hit 8.53 percent in 2017. If healthy, he may seem a good value compared to the franchised players, even at Spotrac’s projected market price.
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Likewise, a player like Za’Darius Smith seems unlikely to sign for Frank Clark or DeMarcus Lawrence money but if he remains as productive could be seen as a steal in hindsight.