Packers 2019 Draft: Best- and worst-case scenarios for picks 1–11

A look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Green Bay Packers from picks 1-11 in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Brian Gutekunst enters the 2019 NFL Draft with a higher first-round selection than the team has had since Ted Thompson nabbed B.J. Raji at ninth overall in 2009. Even as high up as No. 12, though, there’s a bevy of combinations of players that may be available.

So what might one dream scenario look like, with several of Gutekunst’s likely top options available? And how might the opposite occur? Let’s take a look.

First, here’s some of the top players that Gutekunst is likely to covet at No. 12, based on team needs, positional value, player value, and general consensus. This list (in no particular order) excludes players such as Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, and Quinnen Williams, who will almost surely be unavailable:

• Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
• Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
• T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
• Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
• Devin White, ILB, LSU
• Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
• Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida State

Here’s some of the talent that matches up with Packers needs, but is typically regarded to be on the next tier of desirability in Green Bay (this list isn’t quite comprehensive).

• D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi
• Noah Fant, TE, Iowa State
• Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama
• Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
• Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
• Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

Below is one way that the draft could fall that would leave Gutekunst with as many desirable options as possible at pick No. 12. Note that this is not intended to be as accurate as possible; it is simply intended to show a scenario within the realm of possibility.

A Desirable Scenario

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
3. New York Jets: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
4. Oakland Raiders: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
8. Detroit Lions: Devin White, ILB, LSU
9. Buffalo Bills: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama

The biggest stretch here is probably Montez Sweat still being available. Other unrealistic options are the Giants opting for a QB at No. 6, the Oakland Raiders taking Rashan Gary in the top five, the Buffalo Bills selecting Christian Wilkins over Ed Oliver or an offensive tackle, and the Cincinnati Bengals passing up Devin Bush in favor of Jonah Williams.

But, these are all viable selections. If the cards were to fall this way, Gutekunst would have the following available to him:

• EDGE: Brian Burns, Montez Sweat
• TE: T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant
• DT: Ed Oliver
• WR: D.K. Metcalf
• OT: Andre Dillard
• ILB: Devin Bush
• DB: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Greedy Williams

That’s an embarrassment of riches. To me, the best picks here would be Burns or Oliver, but all of the above options (as well as several others not listed) are easily justifiable.

Here, meanwhile, is a believable way that these top targets could nearly all get snatched up.

An Unfortunate Scenario

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, ILB, LSU
6. New York Giants: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
8. Detroit Lions: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
9. Buffalo Bills: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
10. Denver Broncos: Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

Of the list laid out earlier, this would leave:

• WR: D.K. Metcalf
• OT: Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams
• TE: Noah Fant
• DB: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Greedy Williams

Whereas the first mock presented tantalizing options on defense, the value here is weighed more heavily toward the offensive side of the ball.

Funnily enough, both of the above scenarios would make trading back appealing for Gutekunst. If you have a lot of similarly-rated players all available at your pick, it makes sense to pick up some extra value by moving back and still selecting one of said players.

Of course, Gutekunst likely has his draft board set up very differently than the prevailing consensus among draft media. The good news is that he at least partially addressed the team’s most pressing needs in free agency, which will make it much easier to capture value at No. 12 regardless of how picks 1–11 play out.