In the fifth round of fantasy football drafts, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is worth selecting.
Waiting on quarterbacks in fantasy football drafts is generally a good idea, but Aaron Rodgers is currently offering good value. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Rodgers’ current average draft position (ADP) is the 11th pick of the fifth round in 12-team leagues.
Compare that to 2018, when he was going in the middle of the third round, the first quarterback off the board. In 2017, he was a second-rounder.
A bad 2018 season, along with the rise of Patrick Mahomes, seems to be the reason for his drop in drafts this year. But this is still Aaron Rodgers, and working in a new offense should help him.
We’re talking about a generational talent still in the prime of his career. And a player who, despite finishing with his lowest total of passing touchdowns in seasons he was healthy, finished as the QB6 in 2018, according to Fantasy Data.
When healthy, Rodgers offers a safe floor few other quarterbacks can. And if he plays to his best, we’re looking at the QB1 in 2019. Last season, he only threw 25 touchdowns but also protected the football with just two interceptions.
In a new offense, his touchdown total could easily rise up to 35 or even 40. As the starter in Green Bay, Rodgers has only finished with fewer than 30 touchdown passes five times. In two of those seasons, he was injured for half the year with a broken collarbone, playing fewer than 10 games.
The other three seasons were 2008, 2010, and 2018. The 2008 season was his first as the starter.
In contrast, Rodgers has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns six times. On four occasions, he’s thrown for 35 touchdowns or more, and twice over 40 touchdowns.
In the nine seasons Rodgers has started at least 15 games, he averages 33.7 touchdowns and 7.4 interceptions.
Rodgers is currently being the third quarterback selected in fantasy drafts, behind Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Mahomes is being selected as early as the third round, Watson in the fifth a few spots ahead of Rodgers.
Mahomes should be the first QB off the board, but in the third round, fantasy owners will have high expectations. Can the league MVP match last season’s 50 touchdowns? That’s unlikely.
I tend to wait until the late rounds to select a quarterback due to the depth at the position. That said, many players look to target a QB early and aim to draft one of the best in the league.
Considering Rodgers is falling all the way to the fifth round in 12-team leagues, he presents excellent value. If you’re looking for a QB early, the Packers‘ two-time MVP might be the best choice in the fifth round.