Packers must weigh risk vs. reward at trade deadline

With the trade deadline Tuesday, will Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst be as aggressive in roster improvement as in the offseason? The GM will have to weigh the risk and reward.

The Packers are a surprising 6-1 as the trade deadline approaches. General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s aggressiveness this past offseason has paid off better than anyone could have imagined.

The new coach’s offense is starting to gel, his four prized free agents are playing key roles on the team while two (Za’Darius and Preston Smith) are absolute difference makers for Mike Pettine and the defense.

Yet, there are still holes in the Packers roster that must be addressed. To be fair, there isn’t a team in the NFL right now that doesn’t have a few holes. Even the two remaining unbeaten teams (Patriots and 49ers) have glaring holes to be filled.

This now poses the question: how aggressive should Gutekunst be at the trade deadline?

After Davante Adams went down with a turf toe injury there was clamor for the Packers to make a move at receiver. Marquez Valdes-Scanlting hasn’t become the reliable threat many thought he would be. The same could be said about Geronimo Allison.

But, with Adams injured the Packers offense has still come together and players like Allen Lazard and Jake Kumerow have helped fill the gaps in production lost by Adams. In fact, the Packers just had their highest scoring output of the season by distributing the ball to eight different receivers.

So, how much help do the Packers really need?

Don’t get me wrong, a veteran receiver certainly would help. But, at what cost? The Patriots just sent a second-round draft pick to Atlanta for Mohamed Sanu. The 49ers a third for Emmanuel Sanders. Those are steep prices to pay for receivers on the wrong side of 30.

If they pan out and the teams make a deep playoff run, then it’s worth it. If they don’t, then they definitely are not. Regardless, those trades have now set the market for receivers. Of the players available I’m not sure any are worth giving up a second-round pick.

This isn’t a video game where you can make a trade, then plug and play. Every offense in the NFL has its own language and intricacies that make assimilating into an offense difficult. So it might take some time for a receiver to adjust to his new scheme. Don’t believe that, just look how long it’s taken for the team to find their footing this season. The reward must outweigh the risk here.

Of the players rumored to be available, A.J. Green and Corey Davis make the most sense for trade targets. Green has spent all offseason and the first eight weeks of the regular season preparing to play in an offense very similar to the one the Packers run.

Bengals coach Zac Taylor comes from the same coaching tree as Matt LaFleur, so there are a lot of parallels in the schemes. Green has yet to be given a clean bill of health but is close and could be a difference maker.

But, Green is also on the wrong side of 30 (31 years old) while coming off injury. Plus, Green would still be owed roughly $8 million for the rest of the season with the Packers facing some key decisions with their own players: Bryan Bulaga, Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez to name a few, coming this offseason.

The carryover cap space could really help the Packers after their spending spree this past offseason. How much are the Packers willing to part with for what is more than likely a one-year rental?

Corey Davis being available is more speculation than Green but would make more sense. He has underperformed for the Titans since being drafted two seasons ago and seems to be losing targets to rookie A.J. Brown. Davis spent all of 2018 in LaFleur’s scheme, is young and is still in his rookie contract so would give the Packers two years with his fifth-year option. For those reasons, he might come more expensive than Green if he’s actually available at all.

Tight end might be even more difficult to gauge. Not only do tight ends have to learn the routes in an offense, they also have to learn the blocking scheme. Of the tight ends rumored to be available, only Tyler Eifert, for the same reasons as Green, has any type of experience in a scheme similar to the Packers’.

There’s a lot that will have to go into the decision. That’s why the Packers are paying Gutekunst the big bucks. He must weigh the risk with reward and make a sound decision that doesn’t set the team back.

Could defensive help be cheaper? The Packers’ troubles with stopping the run are well known.

Last week, Darren Waller showed another weakness. Would a cover linebacker be a better value? Defensive players’ adjustment period is smaller than the offense, so would there be better options available there?

So, how aggressive will Gutekunst be? We’ll all get our answer soon. Part of me thinks we only know what this season is like and success this season doesn’t guarantee success next. So the Packers should be aggressive and make a move. The other part feels patience is key and only make a move that checks all the boxes (scheme fit, low cost, need).

Either way, Gutekunst must at least explore his options.