Packers need one Seahawks loss in order to control destiny

To secure the NFC’s top seed, the Green Bay Packers might need to run the table and get a little bit of help.

Running the table would almost secure the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for the Green Bay Packers. They’d need the Seattle Seahawks to lose or tie one game.

Two results this weekend could have a significant impact on the race for the top seed. The New Orleans Saints’ surprising home defeat to the Atlanta Falcons allowed the Packers to move into second place in the conference, a half-game ahead of the Saints. Crucially, if the Packers were to win out, they’d finish ahead of the Saints due to a better win percentage against teams in the conference.

Winning out would also ensure the Packers would finish ahead of the San Francisco 49ers, who lost to the Seahawks on Monday night. That’s because by winning out, the Packers would defeat the 49ers and own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

However, if both the Packers and Seahawks win their remaining six games, they’d be tied at 14-2 atop the conference. They’d also be tied in conference records.

The tiebreaker would then come down to victories against common opponents. That would be the Minnesota Vikings, Carolina Panthers, 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Packers would have two wins over the Vikings and victories over the Panthers and 49ers. The Seahawks would have two wins over the 49ers, and victories over the Panthers, Vikings and, crucially, the Eagles.

Due to Seattle’s win and Green Bay’s loss against the Eagles, the Seahawks would take the top seed. The Packers would settle for second in what would be a repeat of the 2014 NFC seeding.

Here are the remaining schedules for all five teams in the mix for the number one seed:

San Francisco (8-1)

Cardinals (3-6-1), Packers (8-2), at Ravens (7-2), at Saints (7-2), Falcons (2-7), Rams (5-4), at Seahawks (8-2)

Combined win-loss record of opponents: 40-25-1 (.606)

Green Bay (8-2)

BYE, 49ers (8-1), at Giants (2-8), Redskins (1-8), Bears (4-5), at Vikings (7-3), at Lions (3-5-1)

Combined win-loss record of opponents: 25-30-1 (.446)

Seattle (8-2)

BYE, at Eagles (5-4), Vikings (7-2), at Rams (5-4), at Panthers (5-4), Cardinals (3-6-1), 49ers (8-1)

Combined win-loss record of opponents: 33-21-1 (.600)

New Orleans (7-2)

at Buccaneers (3-6), Panthers (5-4), at Falcons (2-7), 49ers (8-1), Colts (5-4), at Titans (5-5), at Panthers (5-4)

Combined win-loss record of opponents: 33-31 (.516)

Minnesota (7-3)

Broncos (3-6), BYE, at Seahawks (8-2), Lions (3-5-1), at Chargers (4-6), Packers (8-2), Bears (4-5)

Combined win-loss record of opponents: 30-26-1 (.526)

The 49ers have the toughest remaining schedule with games against the Packers, Baltimore Ravens and Saints in consecutive weeks, and a road game against the Seahawks to close out the season.

The Packers have the “easiest” remaining schedule with only two opponents having a winning record. Three opponents have three or fewer wins. That said, the Packers face two road games against the 49ers and Vikings, who are a combined 15-4.

The Saints have perhaps the most favorable schedule. Their toughest game is at home, and their four road opponents are a combined 15-22.

Schedules don’t mean everything, of course. Anything can happen in the NFL. The Saints lost at home to the Falcons, who only had one win entering Week 10. The Packers lost to the Chargers last week.

Green Bay ran the table in the final six weeks of the 2016 season. It won’t be easy to match that accomplishment, but if they can, they’d need the Seahawks to slip up only once to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs.

And needing to win two games in the frozen conditions at Lambeau Field would give them every chance of returning to the Super Bowl for the first time in almost a decade.