Packers offense should eat the Giants alive in Week 13

Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

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Packers at Giants Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Packers -6.5
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Friday afternoon. To get updated NFL odds, check out this page

The Packers are 5-3 as favorites this season and are facing a Giants team that hasn’t covered at home since September. The public loves the Packers on the road as more than 85% of betting tickets are on Green Bay. Should you back the Pack on the road?

Our experts analyze every angle of this matchup, featuring analysis of the biggest mismatch and staff picks.

Packers-Giants Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

It’s been the same story with Davante Adams as the Packers continue to limit him with his toe injury. He should be just fine heading into Week 13. Adams has seen 33 targets over his last three games since his return from injury. Perhaps the biggest injury to watch is on the offensive line with Bryan Bulaga (knee). He left last week’s game but managed a limited practice on Thursday.

The Giants will likely be without Golden Tate (concussion), safety Jabrill Peppers (back), Evan Engram (foot) and Rhett Ellison (concussion). None of them have practiced this week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Packers Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense

Since Week 8, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has averaged 166 yards and 0.67 touchdowns passing per game.

It’s been a half-decade since his 2014 MVP season, when he led the league with 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt. In the following years, he has fallen well short of that benchmark.

2015: 7.1 (t-18th)
2016: 8.1 (fourth)
2017: 7.2 (15th)
2018: 8.1 (ninth)
2019: 8.1 (ninth)

Since last season, Rodgers has just three 300-yard, three-touchdown games. That number ties him with Mitchell Trubisky and Ryan Fitzpatrick, and 11 other quarterbacks have more such performances.

Rodgers is no longer an elite quarterback.

But he’s still good enough to look elite against a pathetic pass defense, and that’s what the Giants have.

The Giants are No. 29 in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and that number probably undersells just how exploitable they are right now.

Week 3 was the last time that No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins was used in shadow coverage. Since Week 4, he’s played almost exclusively at left corner. He’s no longer a shutdown defender.

Opposite Jenkins, the Giants are a mess. Rookie DeAndre Baker has the lowest PFF coverage grade of any starting corner. And now the team is starting to mix in injury-impacted 2018 third-round supplemental draft pick Sam Beal, who has 19 NFL coverage snaps to his name. Both guys are incredibly exploitable.

In the slot, the Giants started undrafted second-year corner Grant Haley for most of the season, but in Week 10, his 86.5% catch rate allowed was finally deemed unpalatable, and he was benched for sixth-round rookie third-string defensive back Corey Ballentine. As bad as Haley is, Ballentine is almost certainly worst. Last week, he gave up 188 yards and a touchdown on 12 receptions and 14 targets.

Against such defenders, Rodgers should be able to connect easily with wide receivers Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Kumerow.

On top of that, the Giants are No. 26 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric), and Rodgers has two good pass-catching backs in Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

With his matchup, Rodgers has 300-yard, three-touchdown potential. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -5.5
  • Projected Total: 49

Expert Pick

Koerner: Giants +6.5

The Packers are 6.5- to 7-point road favorites, getting more than 80% of the action (see live public betting data here) and have a -3.4 Pythagorean rating differential with the Giants.

But even with the significant action on the Packers, the line hasn’t budged. It’s very likely there’s been some significant sharp action that’s preventing books to move the line up to a key number like 7.

If Engram is able to return, it’ll be the first time in what seems like years that the Giants will have all of their key skill players active on a given week.

It’s also a spot where we could see Saquon Barkley snap his recent slump. The Packers defense has been vulnerable against the run, coughing up 5.1 yards per carry since Week 7. And while they’re certainly the better team, the Giants should be able to keep it close enough that the clear value lies with +6.5.