Packers vs. Seahawks NFC Playoffs: A complete betting guide

Green Bay Packers, Kyler Fackrell (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Green Bay Packers, Kyler Fackrell (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images) /

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Seahawks at Packers Picks & Divisional Round Odds

  • Odds: Packers -4.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Kickoff: 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday
  • TV Channel: FOX

More than 60% of the money bet on the spread is coming in on the Seahawks to cover, driving the line up to 4.5 from its 3.5 opener. But do our experts trust Seattle as much as the public does?

They preview the most important angles of this matchup, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and their betting picks.

Seahawks-Packers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

The most notable player listed as questionable for the Packers is DL Kenny Clark (back). He did get in back-to-back limited practices, so he should be trending toward playing.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are in rough shape for this game — mostly along the offensive, which isn’t ideal against this Green Bay pass-rush. OL Duane Brown (knee/biceps) was once considered likely out for the season a few weeks ago, but he’s reportedly expecting to “try and play” on Sunday. His backup, OL George Fant (groin) is also listed as questionable.

Additionally, OL Mike Iupati (neck) is listed as doubtful and DL Ziggy Ansah (neck) is listed as questionable. Justin Bailey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Packers -3.5
  • Projected Total: 44.5

Biggest Mismatch When Seahawks Have the Ball

WR D.K. Metcalf vs. CB Kevin King

The Packers rank No. 10 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric), and they have a solid secondary. But as I highlight in my Divisional Round WR/CB matchups column, the main weakness in the unit is right cornerback Kevin King.

A 2017 second-rounder, King entered the NFL with promise, but he’s failed to realize his potential. King isn’t a consistently poor player, but he’s exploitable and prone to the big play. Of any starting corner still in the playoffs, no player has a worse mark than his 1.71 yards allowed per snap (per Pro Football Focus).

When relentlessly attacked by quarterbacks, King crumbles. In six games this year, King has had six-plus targets in his coverage and allowed 123, 25, 72, 163, 74 and 82 yards. In another game, he allowed 106 yards on just four targets.

Metcalf has run 62.3% of his routes as the left wide receiver this year, and the Packers tend to play sides, so King is likely to line up wide to the right for almost all of his snaps.

For much of the game, Metcalf and King are going to face each other, and this is a matchup Metcalf can absolutely win.

Metcalf is still raw, but he has elite physical abilities with his size (6-foot-3, 228 pounds) and speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash), and he had a strong rookie season with 900 yards and seven touchdowns on 100 targets and 58 receptions.

Last week against the Eagles, he had a season-best 7-160-1 performance on nine targets. And over the past two weeks, he’s averaged 10.5 targets per game.

The Seahawks can be inconsistent on offense, but Metcalf has the full ability to put up 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns against King. Matthew Freedman

Biggest Mismatch When Packers Have the Ball

WR Davante Adams vs. CBs Tre Flowers & Ugo Amadi

Since returning from injury in Week 9, Adams has averaged a robust 11.4 targets per game, and for the season, he’s had either 100 yards or a touchdown in eight of 12 games.

His campaign has gone overlooked because of four missed games, but on a per-game basis, Adams has been highly comparable to the All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins.

This year, Adams has run 66.7% of his routes lined up wide to the left or in the slot, so for much of the game he should be able to avoid No. 1 cornerback Shaquill Griffin, who lines up almost exclusively at left corner.

Instead of Griffin, the exploitable Flowers and Amadi will be tasked with defending Adams. Flowers has a 51.4 PFF coverage grade, and Amadi is a fourth-round third-string rookie who’s been the team’s primary slot corner for just a month.

Adams is near-lock for double-digit targets, and with that kind of usage, he could have a 100-yard, multi-touchdown day given the matchup. — Freedman

Expert Pick

Chris Raybon: Under 45.5

Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson will be billed as a matchup between two all-time great quarterback. But that doesn’t mean we should expect a high-scoring affair.

Over the past five years, Rodgers hasn’t quite been the same quarterback he was earlier in his career. After posting 8.2 yards per attempt over his first 10 years in the league, he has failed to crack 7.3 YPA in any of his five seasons since, including a mediocre 7.0 mark this season that places him 17th among 32 qualifiers.

Five years later, the market still hasn’t quite caught on — particularly in cold-weather spots when we’re not expecting a full-on shootout. In Rodgers’ cold-weather starts (below 50 degrees) with a total below 51 since 2015, the under is 37-27 (58%), including 4-1 this season, according to our Bet Labs data.

Then you have Wilson, whose road starts have trended toward the under throughout his career (39-33) and this season (5-4). Amid a rise in competition level down the stretch, Wilson led his team to more than the 21 points that they’re implied to score in this matchup just twice over the past seven games. And just last week, Seattle mustered only 17 points in a victory over the Eagles despite not committing a turnover and Wilson shredding Philly for 325 yards on 30 pass attempts and 45 yards on nine carries.

Much of it has to do with a deteriorating offensive line and run game that is missing Brown, center Justin Britt (ACL) and running backs Chris Carson (hip) and Rashaad Penny (knee), among others.

But here’s where the greatness of Rodgers and Wilson, perhaps counterintuitively, really makes the under a strong bet: Both of these quarterbacks are expert game managers. Rodgers has thrown only four interceptions all year, and Wilson has been picked just five times. But of the eight remaining playoff signal-callers, guess which two have fared the worst at converting their dropbacks/carries into first downs on third/fourth down this season?

That’s right, it’s Wilson (37.7%) and Rodgers (36.5%).

I was able to find a slightly juiced 47 (-115) earlier in the week, but I would bet the under down to 45 at standard juice, as my numbers are in agreement with my ever-sharp colleague Sean “The Oddsmaker” Koerner, who pegs this line at 44.5 in his power ratings.