Packers: What AJ Dillon can bring to Matt LaFleur’s offense
AJ Dillon has the potential to be a great addition to the Green Bay Packers offense.
AJ Dillon became the first running back selected by the Packers as high as the second round since Eddie Lacy in 2014.
Like Lacy, Dillon is a powerful runner who runs over tacklers and is great at adding yards after contact. In his first two seasons, Lacy proved to be the missing piece in Green Bay’s offense with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Dillon can find similar success with the Packers.
Running back was perhaps a bigger need entering the draft than we initially thought. Not only will Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams become free agents next offseason, but the difference in production between the two running backs last season was too much.
When Jones was in the game, the offense flowed, moved the ball efficiently, and always looked capable of putting up points. Without him, it was the total opposite. According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, with Jones on the field in 2019, Green Bay’s offense was third-best in the league in expected points per play. When Jones was out the game, the offense ranked just 29th.
That’s quite an incredible dropoff in production without the Packers’ featured back on the field.
Williams is a good player and he can play on all three downs. But he’s averaging just 3.9 yards per carry in his career compared to five YPC for Jones. Williams has eight rushing touchdowns in three years; Jones doubled that total last season alone.
It’s something Matt LaFleur will want to put right in 2020. It, perhaps then, shouldn’t be a surprise they went running back early.
Like Kyle Shanahan‘s offense, one of LaFleur’s mentors, the Packers want to run the ball. According to Team Rankings, only the Ravens ran the ball more often than Shanahan’s 49ers last season. And San Francisco ranked second in the NFL for rushing but had zero 1,000-yard rushers. Shanahan built a strong stable of running backs, featuring Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman.
LaFleur wants to run the ball, which in turn sets up the play-action pass. By adding a powerful, thumping running back like Dillon, Green Bay could now potentially have an outstanding thunder-and-lightning combination in the backfield, with Williams and Tyler Ervin giving them great depth as part of the rotation.
Dillon isn’t best known for his receiving ability, although the Packers believe this is an underrated part of his game, but he is dominant between the tackles. Incredibly productive at Boston College, Dillon put up 4,382 yards and 38 touchdowns in three seasons, averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network wrote that “Dillon is a throwback of sorts, a cold-weather back with a punishing style”. For LaFleur’s offense, one with an emphasis on running the ball, Dillon can make a huge difference.
Not only will his arrival take pressure off of Jones, but his ability to wear defenses down will only make Jones’ impact that much greater. Jones is explosive, has great vision, and regularly turns a likely small gain into a first down. With Dillon wearing down defenses, Jones’ explosiveness and elusiveness will be that much harder for opponents to stop.
And all of this will only help the passing game despite the Packers’ surprising lack of investment at wide receiver.
When Lacy was dominating in the backfield six years ago, defenses regularly stacked the box in an attempt to stop him. Not only did it rarely work, but also adding an extra defender in the box against Aaron Rodgers is a risky strategy. In 2014, the Packers ranked No. 8 in passing offense and No. 11 in rushing offense. They led the league in scoring offense, averaging 30.4 points per game.
Green Bay’s commitment to the ground game continued with the addition of third-round pick Josiah Deguara, who will help open running lanes while also being able to contribute as a pass-catcher. The Packers also drafted two interior offensive linemen.
Dillon was a surprising addition on Day 2 of the draft, but he can absolutely make a difference. For an offense looking to run the ball more frequently and thrive off of play-action, a trio of Dillon, Jones, and Williams can be up there with the best in the league. Dillon adds something new to LaFleur’s offense and his arrival can help the offense take a step forward.