Bleacher Report predicts Aaron Rodgers’ numbers will go down in 2020, indicating the Packers offense will be more geared up to run the football.
Aaron Rodgers may not have had one of his MVP-level seasons in 2019, but he was still in the elite tier of quarterbacks in the NFL.
In his first season working in Matt LaFleur’s offense, Rodgers completed 62 percent of his passes for 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and four interceptions with a passer rating of 95.4. He earned his ninth Pro Bowl selection as a result.
But this is no longer an offense that leans almost entirely on the pass and abandons the ground game. LaFleur’s aim is to achieve balance, or close to it. We could see more of this in 2020, especially after the Green Bay Packers drafted zero wide receivers and added powerful running back A.J. Dillon in the second round.
Bleacher Report’s Maurice Moton has predicted the 2020 stats for each NFL starting quarterback, and he expects Rodgers’ numbers to drop from last season.
Moton noted that the focus on strengthening the ground game this offseason is a key reason for this. He predicts Rodgers will finish 2020 with 323 completions from 506 attempts (down from 353 of 569 last year), which would give him a higher completion percentage than in 2019.
Moton’s prediction is that Rodgers will throw for 3,745 yards, 25 touchdowns, and four interceptions. While his yardage total would be down on last year, he’d only have one fewer passing TD and the same number of INTs.
Moton believes running the ball more, as well as the lack of talent in the wide receiver corps outside of Davante Adams, is a reason for these numbers:
"“With Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and Dillon in the fold, Rodgers will likely see a drop-off in pass attempts, which lowers the ceiling of his passing productivity. And if Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown and Allen Lazard struggle to take a significant step forward in their development, Davante Adams would be the only reliable pass-catcher in the offense.”"
Considering a greater emphasis on running the football and the lack of investment in the receiving game this year, this wouldn’t be a bad result for the Packers.
I think Moton’s predictions are fair and probably about right. The days of Rodgers throwing for 40 touchdowns and 400,000 yards are likely gone.
Part of that is it’s unlikely he’ll get back to his 2014-best again, but also his supporting cast. Back then he had Adams, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb. Now, the offense is geared up to run early and often, and his receiving options aren’t particularly exciting.