Packers running back Aaron Jones is being overdrafted in fantasy.
A fantasy football star last season, Aaron Jones will be one of the first running backs off the board in drafts this year. But fantasy owners should be cautious when considering drafting the Green Bay Packers‘ number one running back.
Jones is an elite running back who should have another excellent season for the Packers but it won’t necessarily translate into the same success in fantasy as we saw last season.
Green Bay’s decision to draft AJ Dillon in the second round complicates things in the backfield.
AJ Dillon complicates Packers RB picture
Like the San Francisco 49ers offense, we could see the Packers opt for more of a running-back-by-committee this season. That’s bad news for Jones’ fantasy owners.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Jones’ current average draft position (ADP) makes him the 13th player off the board and the eighth running back to be selected. That’s incredibly high for a player who isn’t guaranteed to be given a featured role again in 2020.
Much of Jones’ fantasy success was due to his touchdown total rather than volume. Even as the clear number one in the backfield, he still saw far fewer carries than many of the other top backs in fantasy such as Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and Nick Chubb.
Not only will Dillon’s arrival likely reduce Jones’ role a bit more, which could result in fewer carries, it could also reduce his touchdown opportunities. Putting up another 19 touchdowns was always going to be a big ask and there’s likely to be some regression anyway, but Dillon could see plenty of goal-line carries which often went to Jones.
Dillon, a powerful running back who is tough to tackle, will be a great option for Green Bay in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Jones will still get his share of opportunities, and his home-run ability means he’ll still break out big touchdown runs. It’s also possible his receiving role will increase.
But if Dillon takes away even half of the goal-line carries Jones had last season, it will hurt Jones’ fantasy numbers.
Until we get some more clarity on how Matt LaFleur plans to distribute the carries, it’s a risk drafting him in the opening two rounds.