Aaron Rodgers has become a fantasy football sleeper.
Oh how times have changed.
Oftentimes in fantasy football, we see overcorrections after a player either exceeds or falls short expectations. Sometimes it’s an entire position group.
Draft Aaron Rodgers in the eighth round
Rodgers wasn’t a reliable fantasy QB in 2019. But he’s falling far too low in drafts. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Rodgers’ current average draft position (ADP) is in the eighth round. He’s currently the 10th quarterback off the board.
I’m a strong believer in waiting for a quarterback in fantasy drafts. As great as Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson might be in your fantasy lineup each week, the price in the draft means passing up on a top running back or wide receiver. It’s much easier to find a viable fantasy starter at QB later on than at RB or WR.
The early rounds should almost exclusively be reserved for RBs and WRs. And if startable QBs continue to fall, don’t be afraid to wait and wait and wait.
That said, if you’re on the clock in the eighth round, have stocked up on running backs and pass-catchers and Rodgers is still on the board, the value could be too hard to pass up.
It’s about upside. How many eighth-rounders become league-winners? If you draft well early, you’re looking for high upside players later on. Rodgers provides that. If he can get anywhere close to his MVP-best, the fantasy numbers will follow.
Yes, there are concerns about the Packers‘ run game taking away passing opportunities. But it can also have the opposite effect. The stronger Green Bay’s offense is on the ground, the easier it’ll become for Rodgers and the passing game, particularly in the play-action game.
As long as Rodgers is on the field, the Packers are going to pass the ball plenty.
The risk in the eighth round is low. Let your league-mates scoop up the early-round quarterbacks while you stock up on top running backs and wide receivers. Then if the Packers’ two-time MVP is sitting there around the eighth round, pick him up.
Rodgers’ upside would be a top-three fantasy QB. In the eighth round, that’s a bargain.