Packers: Predicting how many TDs Aaron Rodgers throws in 2021

Just for a moment, let’s pretend there has been no uncertainty regarding Aaron Rodgers‘ future with the Green Bay Packers and that he’s ready to play in 2021.

Rodgers is coming off a career-year with an incredible 48 touchdown passes, which led him to his third NFL MVP award and perhaps his best yet.

Assuming he plays for the Packers this season, how many TDs will Rodgers throw?

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers throws 40 TDs in 2021

Even if Rodgers puts in another MVP-level season, it’s hard to imagine he’ll throw another 48 touchdown passes.

Peyton Manning set the NFL record for TD passes in a single season in 2013, throwing 55 scores. The following season, Manning had 39. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes threw 50 TDs but that number fell to 26 the following year.

Manning threw 49 TDs in 2004 then 28 in 2005. Dan Marino threw 48 TDs in 1984 then 30 the following season. I could go on and on.

Throwing 48 touchdowns in a single season isn’t easy. It’s tied for fifth all-time with Marino. Replicating that isn’t impossible, of course, but it will be difficult, even if Rodgers plays as well as he did in 2020.

But I don’t think it’ll be a huge drop-off, either. This offense will be efficient and tough to defend, perhaps even more so than last season.

Green Bay was around middle of the pack for rushing touchdowns last season. With 16 rushing TDs compared to 48 passing TDs, this will most likely be a little more balanced in 2021, although passing TDs should still win comfortably.

I have Rodgers throwing 40 touchdown passes this season, which is still an incredible number and something he’s only done three times before. He’ll have a point to prove if he plays this season. Pair that with Matt LaFleur’s system and this offense can be unstoppable again in 2021.

How many passing TDs do you think Rodgers will have if he plays the full season with the Packers?