Predicting the Packers roster three years from now

Of the 90 players currently on the Green Bay Packers training camp roster for 2021, only 22 of them were playing for the Packers three years ago. In the offseason following the 2018 season, we witnessed significant changes in Green Bay, including a new head coach and some big free-agent acquisitions.

Three years on, it certainly feels like we’re on the cusp of another big change in the structure of the Packers, with some believing the Packers are ready to blow it all up and rebuild following the upcoming season.

I thought it would be interesting to look three years ahead and predict which players will still be in town in 2024. This exercise is made all the more intriguing due to the Packers’ salary cap situation.

The reality is that Green Bay has drafted really well through the last four years, and won’t be able to retain as many assets as they would like to.

Rookie contracts

To start us off, all of the players selected by the Packers in the 2021 Draft are still on their rookie contracts through 2024. While it’s no guarantee that the later-round picks will make the 55-man roster every year, it’s more likely than not that the top three picks will all still be in Green Bay in three years time. They are:

• Eric Stokes
• Josh Myers
• Amari Rodgers

I’d also throw in fourth- and fifth-round picks Royce Newman and TJ Slaton into this conversation. Obviously it’s much too early to tell right now though.

Other current contracts

Next, here are the rest of the players on the current roster who are currently signed through 2024:

• Aaron Jones
• David Bakhtiari
• Kenny Clark

Unless some kind of falling out happens between player and organization that results in a forced trade, it’s almost guaranteed that Bakhtiari and Clark will both be on the roster in 2024.

However the same cannot be said for Aaron Jones. The Packers have an ‘out’ on the Jones contract after two seasons, so it’s possible that the team could move on from Jones if he begins to show significant regression in his late 20s.

The last contract to talk about that is already in place is that of 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love. As with all first-round selections, Love’s contract contains a fifth-year option – that year being 2024. The Packers must make the decision on Love following the next two seasons, which will likely entail one full season of actual play as the Packers QB1.

Potential extensions

This is a pretty tough area to predict. There’s so much talent on the Packers roster and it’s simply unfeasible for Brian Gutekunst to lock up long-term deals with all of them.

Jaire Alexander

First off, I’m going to say that superstar CB Jaire Alexander is a shoe-in for a huge contract extension that reaches far beyond 2024, and it will make him the highest-paid CB in football.

The 2019 draft class

After Alexander is where it gets tricky. The talented 2019 draft haul of Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins will all be in the market for big second contracts. I think Jenkins is the likeliest of the trio to remain in Green Bay, but I would also expect one of the other two to agree to an extension also.

Aaron Rodgers

Considering everything we know now, I don’t expect Rodgers to be in Green Bay for another four seasons. The Packers have already offered the extension. Rodgers declined it. It’s looking like a sure thing that 2021 will be #12’s last season in green and gold.

Davante Adams

There’s a possibility that this may be Adams’ final year in Green Bay as well, but I wouldn’t lose hope just yet. The Packers have a knack for pushing out these deals when push comes to shove. Unlike Rodgers, it’s more of a ‘money issue’ for Adams, which is a lot easier to resolve. I expect Davante to sign a multi-year extension before he hits free agency next March.

Adrian Amos

Amos will be 31 years old in 2024. The value of an NFL safety falls more drastically than other positions when they enter the late stages of their careers. Amos won’t be cheap to extend, but he probably wouldn’t necessitate breaking the bank for either. This one is a toss-up.

Za’Darius Smith

Za’Darius has voiced his aspirations to retire as a member of the Green Bay Packers. Due to a max restructure of his contract this offseason, the Packers will have to either cut, trade or extend Smith at the end of this season. I think they’ll end up going with the latter, and extend Smith through to 2024 or 2025.

Za’Darius is the leader of this defense. I believe he’ll be playing at Lambeau for years to come, and when it’s all said and done, he’ll retire as an all-time great Green Bay Packer.

Tonyan, MVS and Lazard

The Packers “B” targets on offense are all free agents at the end of this season. It certainly doesn’t help that they all have to negotiate a contract in the same season as Davante Adams, when the Packers already sit roughly $35 million over the cap.

The prospect of an MVS breakout season makes things difficult. He could be getting WR1 money elsewhere at the end of the season.

If Lazard re-signs, I can’t see it being more than a two-year contract. So he’ll likely have to get through two contract negotiations if he wants to see 2024 in a Packers uniform.

Honestly, I don’t see a world where Robert Tonyan isn’t back in Green Bay after next year, but similar to Lazard, a three-year deal may be a little generous.

Deguara, Dillon and Runyan

The three primary contributors from the 2020 draft class, opinions are still up in the air for Josiah Degaura, who we’ve barely seen in game action due to injury.

Dillon already has a ton of mileage extending back to his Boston College days, which is never good for a running back looking to secure a second contract.

Meanwhile, I believe that Runyan Jr. is next in the long line of late-round interior offensive linemen whom the Packers turn into very reliable players. I’m locking in that Runyan will be a Packer in 2024.

Everybody else

I don’t have the time to go through the rest of the roster individually, but a few notable mentions:

I don’t see Preston Smith or Kevin King being on the roster for three more years. Marcedes Lewis is obviously going to retire soon enough.

Billy Turner is probably gone as the Packers opt to reload in the trenches through the draft. The same could be said for Lucas Patrick, however he could stay as veteran depth.

I’d like to think Krys Barnes will be LB1 for the foreseeable future in Green Bay. As for Kamal Martin, it’s far too early to tell.

Kingsley Keke and Chandon Sullivan are the only others I’d consider. Sullivan may get ousted following this year as a cap casualty. Keke is a very tough guess, but the potential emergence of TJ Slaton wouldn’t help.

Oh, and finally Mason Crosby will be 39 years old, but will probably still be around as he ages terrifically.

Official prediction

This will be fun to look back on in three years time. Here’s a list of current Packers who I believe will still be on the roster in 2024:

• QB Jordan Love
• RB Kylin Hill
• WR Davante Adams
• WR Amari Rodgers
• TE Robert Tonyan
• OT David Bakhtiari
• G Elgton Jenkins
• G Jon Runyan
• G Lucas Patrick
• G Royce Newman
• C Josh Myers
• DT Kenny Clark
• DT TJ Slaton
• EDGE Za’Darius Smith
• EDGE Rashan Gary
• LB Krys Barnes
• CB Jaire Alexander
• CB Eric Stokes
• CB Shemar Jean-Charles
• K Mason Crosby

Overview

Most notably, I don’t think either of AJ Dillon or Aaron Jones will be on the Packers in 2024. I think 2021 seventh-round pick Kylin Hill will still be on the roster, but not as the RB1.

The pass catchers are the toughest to predict. If Adams does walk in free agency, I’d expect Valdes-Scantling and Lazard to remain for a few more seasons. But will they receive contracts longer than two years? That’s the trickiest thing to factor in.

You may have also noticed this list is void of safeties. As much as I love Amos and Savage, someone had to be left out for cap considerations, and the Packers have been comfortable replacing good safeties in the past.