Do the Packers need to win out to make the playoffs?

The focus this week is, understandably, on whether the Green Bay Packers can win their remaining four games of the regular season.

But do they actually need to win all four to reach the playoffs?

Well, the short answer is yes. If they lose one of their remaining four games, reaching the playoffs becomes close to impossible.

Close, but not actually impossible.

Entering Week 15, FiveThirtyEight gives the Packers a 6% chance of reaching the postseason. A loss on Monday night, not factoring in any other results, drops that number to 0.4%. Even if other results in the NFC went their way, their chances of reaching the playoffs would fall below 1%.

If the Packers win out, they will require the Seattle Seahawks to lose at least two games. If Seattle loses two, one of those defeats would have to come against an NFC opponent.

On top of that, Green Bay would need either the New York Giants or Washington Commanders to lose three of their remaining four games. They play each other this week.

With games coming against the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings, running the table won’t be easy for Matt LaFleur’s team.

So, what would it take to make the playoffs if the Packers lose one more game?

If Green Bay goes 3-1 in the final four games, this must happen, and even this wouldn’t guarantee a playoff berth:

• The loser of the Washington/New York game must lose its remaining three games
• Seattle must lose at least three games
• Packers must beat Lions, and Detroit must lose at least one other game

Even that might not be enough. If the Packers go 3-1 and the Seahawks finish 1-3, it would come down to conference record or potentially other tiebreakers. There are many potential outcomes.

It’s also complicated with the Packers and Lions. Various tiebreakers could come into play if the two teams are on the same record, depending on which games are won and lost.

If the Packers go 3-1, they will likely not make the playoffs. Even if they ended up in a tie with one or more teams, it’s hard to know which tiebreakers would come into play.

Green Bay can make the playoffs with one more loss, but as FiveThirtyEight projects, the likelihood is less than 1%.