Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers go on the road to face Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. It's a thrilling interconference showdown between two 5-3 clubs led by star quarterbacks.
The stakes are high as the Packers march into the Patriots' Gillette Stadium. Both squads are trying to keep pace in their division and stay in the playoff picture. The outcome of this clash has a massive impact on each side's postseason probability, adding even more intrigue to the games within the game.
While New England has several strengths, many of which revolve around Maye, they also have exploitable weaknesses. Frankly, the same goes for Green Bay and Love.
However, the three data points below could have the biggest impact on the final score of the upcoming Packers-Patriots contest.
3 metrics that could swing Packers' showdown vs. Patriots
Pressure rate
Green Bay ranks 12th in defensive pressure rate (36.5 percent) this season, while the Patriots are dead last in pressure rate allowed (44.5 percent). On paper, that's an all-too-obvious matchup to exploit, right? Typically, controlling the trenches and flushing the passer outside would make sense, yet Maye can make opponents pay for trying to get to him.
As weird as it sounds, the Packers might be better off dropping back in coverage than trying to disrupt Maye. As good as he is from a clean pocket, few are as dangerous when pressured. His 0.190 expected points added (EPA) per dropback in said situations trails only the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen, the odds-on MVP favorite (minimum 50 dropbacks).
Maye is such a great playmaker, and his legs are a legitimate weapon. He almost invites teams to pin their ears back and get after him, knowing it creates opportunities for explosives. The dual-threat skill set neutralizes Green Bay's surging pass rush.
Turnovers
Only the Los Angeles Chargers have had a higher percentage of their offensive drives end in a turnover than the Pats in 2026 (17.9 percent). Conversely, the Packers lead the NFL in takeaways (15). Talk about clashing styles.
It sounds simple, but whoever wins the turnover battle will have a massive edge. Maye can be a little careless with the football, recording eight interceptions and six fumbles (two lost) through eight appearances in his third pro campaign. Green Bay is an opportunistic bunch, headlined by stud safeties Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams.
Drop yards
Receivers holding onto the football — or not being able to — is an ongoing, well-chronicled issue in Titletown, and similar problems exist in Foxborough. Guess who's first and second in the league, respectively, in drop yards entering Week 9's Sunday slate: Maye (206) and Love (174).
Both Love and Maye have done a fantastic job of overcoming their pass-catchers' inconsistent hands to this point. The bill will come due for them eventually, especially as the competition and stakes rise down the stretch. The head-to-head showdown between franchise QBs may ultimately come down to whose supporting cast helps them more (or hurts them less).
Note: Advanced metrics courtesy of Fantasy Points' data suite 2.0 ($).
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