The Green Bay Packers' defense is coming off a dominant outing against the New York Jets, especially against the run.
Nose tackle Jonathan Ford and Company held Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, New York's talented backfield tandem, to a pitiful 36 yards on 21 carries. The Packers will need a similar effort to handle an even tougher task in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons.
Stopping Bijan Robinson will be the first, second, and third priority against an Atlanta offense still riding headless at quarterback. This week, it's Michael Penix. Despite having no help to speak of, Robinson has rattled off 244 scrimmage yards in two games. RB2 Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 51 yards of his own last week against the Carolina Panthers.
The good news is that the Falcons' offense should be predictably dependent on the services of Robinson and Robinson, allowing the Packers to gameplan accordingly. The bad: the task gets no easier for a run defense already on short rest.
Packers' run defense must hold serve in its toughest test yet
As fantasy football managers know, the other B. Robinson is a one-man juggernaut. Last season he churned out 2,298 scrimmage yards while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Even in a putrid Atlanta offense, let Bijan break one and all of a sudden seven points are on the board.
Being able to home in on Robinson will help Green Bay's defense, which has been stout up front thus far, but guys like Ford will have to be even a bit better. While he's been fine, an 11th percentile PFF grade is somewhat concerning, even if that feels overly harsh.
Ford remains an important cog on the defensive front. Based on the injury report, Warren Brinson will sit again, while Javon Hargrave has been limited in practice after missing Sunday's game. Anthony Campbell is working through an ankle injury.
In other words, expect more of the same in Thursday's rotation: Karl Brooks and Devonte Wyatt at defensive end, with Chris McClellan and Ford up the middle.
Brooks has been excellent against the run this season, and McClellan has impressed. It's going to take a group effort, though, and the Packers will need their linebackers and defensive backs ready to gang tackle Robinson in space and limit him as a receiving threat.
Encouragingly, Green Bay ranks among the best run-stuffing defenses in the early going. The group currently sits sixth, having allowed -0.24 EPA per rush. Although the Vikings ran for over 100 yards, they managed just 3.5 yards per carry after throwing out kneel-downs.
Even better, the fact that the Packers' middle-of-the-pack pass defense (18th by EPA per play) has yet to be truly tested won't change when facing Penix and the Falcons.
In theory it's another good matchup for the Green and Gold, but whether that proves true starts with how effectively they can clog up the middle, set a hard edge, and keep Robinson contained in space. Easier said than done.
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