Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson ruled out Caleb Williams at the start of the week, which makes his questionable tag on the final Week 5 injury report a little surprising.
Was this Johnson's plan all along? Was it gamesmanship? Did he want the Green Bay Packers to spend a week preparing for Tyson Bagent, only for Williams to play after all? Well, I guess anything is possible, but don't count on it.
Even though Williams is officially listed as questionable, and regardless of anything Johnson has told reporters, the Packers should still expect to see Bagent in Week 5. Let's break it down.
Why Caleb Williams' questionable status doesn't make his return any likelier vs. Packers
Actions speak louder than words (or injury designations, in this case), and how the Bears have handled Williams' injury this week says a lot.
Williams didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday but logged a limited session on Friday, hence the questionable tag. But a player going from DNP to DNP to LP to playing on Sunday, coming off a Grade 2 hamstring injury? Yeah, that would be a major gamble for the Bears.
Hamstring injuries are tricky. It's not just a pain-management issue, as some injuries are. Returning too soon from a hamstring issue risks reinjury. Williams didn't log any practice snaps before Friday, suggesting he's still not ready to play, unless the Bears are willing to take that risk.
Johnson isn't afraid to play mind games. We know this. Would it be surprising if he had Tyson Bagent play one snap to get the "start" before putting in Williams? If any coach would do this, it's Johnson.
But given the nature of the injury and Williams' lack of practice before Friday, the Packers shouldn't expect to see him out there in Week 5. The Bears also have a quick turnaround before playing on Thursday Night Football, which the team must consider.
What the 'questionable' tag really means
If there's any gamesmanship on the Bears' part, it's happening right now. They've left the door open for Williams to play, even though it's highly improbable in reality.
What does "questionable" even mean? It's a vague term and open to interpretation.
According to the NFL's Competition Committee, questionable means a player's status for the game is "uncertain." That's pretty open-ended. You could technically have a 99 percent chance of playing but be "questionable." Similarly, you could have a 1 percent chance and still be "questionable." It simply means "uncertain."
There is also the doubtful tag, which should, in theory, be used if a player is unlikely to play.
If Williams is unlikely to play, the Bears should list him as doubtful. But again, there's no exact science here. They could absolutely argue that the questionable tag was reasonable. After all, Williams practiced on Friday.
And that's where the gamesmanship could come into play. The Bears probably know Williams isn't ready – Johnson has said as much – but they can use the questionable tag to create some uncertainty for the Packers. Only they know how close he really is.
I could be wrong, of course. Maybe Williams truly is in contention to play. But given the risk of rushing hamstring injuries, Williams returning to practice so late in the week, the Bears playing again on Thursday, and Johnson already naming Bagent the starter, the Packers should prepare for Bagent (and feel pretty confident doing so).
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