Critics of Packers' Christian Watson 'overpay' are missing hidden context

The Green Bay Packers furrowed plenty of brows, perhaps especially their own fans', by handing wide receiver Christian Watson a four-year, $110.5 million extension. Given his injury history and lack of face-value production, that's a scary ton of money. 

The good news is that only $31 million is guaranteed. What's more, Watson was sneakily elite last season and is arguably the most important playmaker on the entire offense. Plus, he's a homegrown talent and a fan-favorite. The Packers attach high value to both qualities. 

Viewed through that lens, it's possible that critics of the extension have fixated on surface details while overlooking less visible but important context, particularly when it comes to Watson's impact on the football field. 

Christian Watson's contract isn't as ghastly as it looks

Let's start with the obvious part. Watson's career high in receiving yards is 620. He has never caught more than 41 passes. He is entering Year 5 now, so it's not like he can boast untapped rookie potential. 

That said, Watson took his game to another level when he returned to the Packers in Week 8 last season, after ACL surgery kept him sidelined for nearly 10 months. Consider these numbers compiled by Zach Kruse of Packers Wire:

That's only 11 games, but it's also the most recent data we have. Across a full 17-game schedule, Watson's numbers in that sample translate to 59 catches for 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns. 

Maybe he just got hot. But simply looking at where Watson ranked in those areas mitigates the sticker shock of his new contract. By annual value, he is the 15th-highest paid receiver in the league, per Spotrac.

Think about it. Roughly, that makes him a slightly above-average No. 1 receiver in a 32-team league. That's oversimplifying, of course, but it's worth noting given all the outcry. 

And in case anyone wondered whether Watson was really all that important to the offense, there's this from A to Z Sports' Wendell Ferreira:

Watson is a big, fast target who opens up the field as a deep threat and contested-catch security blanket, drawing defenders through the force of his gravity. How many 6-foot-4 receivers ran a 4.36 at the NFL Combine? 

Not everyone is so concerned about Watson's underwhelming statistical volume. His injury track record is the reason many Packers fans have their doubts about the deal. And for good reason. Watson has missed 20 games in four seasons. It's something new every year.

That's where the low guarantees factor in, giving Green Bay a fairly inexpensive way out, relative to the contract as a whole, if Watson doesn't live up to it. His guaranteed money ranks only 26th among current receiver contracts. The Patriots gave Romeo Doubs $35 million guaranteed over the same four years. While Doubs doesn't have Watson's health concerns, he also has nowhere near the ceiling. 

Those considerations might not leave fans reassured, but the bigger picture suggests that the flood of knee-jerk criticism wasn't totally fair, either. Maybe the Packers know what they're doing, after all. 

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