Losing Micah Parsons could have the type of seismic impact David Bakhtiari's late-season injury had on the Green Bay Packers five years ago. Without Bakhtiari, the Packers' offensive line lost its strongest piece, and it proved too much to overcome.
Parsons didn't just elevate Green Bay's pass rush this season. He is the Packers' pass rush.
Without him, the team must rely on Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness to step up, while also hoping for contributions from Kingsley Enagbare, Barryn Sorrell, and Brenton Cox, who should return soon. But there's no replacing Parsons. On a recent episode of ESPN's NFL Live, Dan Orlovsky broke down why his injury could completely derail the Packers' defense.
"The question is going to loom of what are they going to do?" Orlovsky said. "This defense is predicated on pressure. This is who they are. When they get pressure, again, Micah leads the NFL, they are a top-three defense. When they don't get pressure, they're a bottom-five unit. Bottom-10 unit."
"I think the natural thing is, well, let's pressure more, let's blitz more. I just think that's dicey as well because they're not elite in the secondary, so if you're taking more bodies to bring pressure, you're exposing your back end a little bit more."
Dan Orlovsky spells out the harsh reality facing the Packers without Micah Parsons
It's the harsh reality the Packers must come to terms with. They'll have to find a way to adjust and make it work, but replacing Parsons is impossible. Per Pro Football Focus, he generated 79 pressures this season, ranking third in the NFL behind only Aidan Hutchinson and Danielle Hunter.
Parsons won on 22.6 percent of his pass-rush snaps, the fourth-best record, despite facing relentless double and triple teams.
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The Packers desperately need Gary to help fill the void, but his production has declined. Gary has 47 pressures and 7.5 sacks on the season. However, the difference in recent weeks is alarming. Gary made 26 pressures and 7.5 sacks in his first seven games. In the seven contests since then, he's at 21 pressures but zero sacks.
It will take a collective effort, and the Packers need everyone to step up.
"I told the guys: Nobody's going to feel sorry for us. We've got to rally around one another, and everybody is going to have to elevate their play," head coach Matt LaFleur said following the loss in Denver.
Orlovsky spells out the major problem facing defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.
In Parsons' absence, Hafley may need to take a bolder approach to generating pressure. Before now, he could sit in soft zones with full confidence that the Parsons-led defensive front would hurry quarterbacks. Now, the only way to produce consistent pressure might be to get creative and send more rushers.
That could expose the secondary. Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon have played well enough this season, but they've benefited from the play in front of them. Bo Nix made life miserable for them both in Week 15. Per Nick Whalen of Rotowire, they allowed a combined 183 yards and three touchdowns.
If the Packers' pressure dries up, it will force Hafley to consider sending a blitzer, like Edgerrin Cooper. But that leaves more room in behind for quarterbacks to take advantage of, and the Packers lack a true shutdown corner.
It's the exact problem they ran into last season, and it ultimately proved to be their downfall.
Green Bay's pass rush couldn't lay a glove on the elite offensive lines, forcing Hafley to find creative schematic ways to make it happen. But his various twists and stunts couldn't fix everything.
Remember, while Hafley didn't have Parsons last year, he did have Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt. Not anymore.
Parsons allowed them to rush four and drop players into coverage. Now, they have to choose. If Gary and Van Ness can't collectively fill the void, along with help from the others, Hafley will have no choice but to send more bodies. That puts the secondary under immense pressure, which could break the dam.
Green Bay has limited explosive plays at a high level, but that could change fast.
It's a painful reality. The Packers needed more production from the backup pass-rushers when Parsons was on the field. Without him, they must collectively step up, or this defense will go from an elite unit to a disastrous one.