Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has built a playoff team almost primarily through the draft.
Gutekunst has added several important starters in his past three classes, including Edgerrin Cooper, Evan Williams, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Zach Tom, and Romeo Doubs. Many of his best picks came on Day 2 or later.
However, he has a surprisingly shaky first-round track record in recent years. The Packers' past five first-round selections: Jordan Morgan, Lukas Van Ness, Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, and Eric Stokes.
None of them have lived up to expectations. There's still time for Morgan, who battled injuries in his rookie year, but time is quickly running out for Van Ness after two underwhelming seasons. Walker and Wyatt are solid contributors but not star players, while Stokes is likely gone this offseason.
Gutekunst often prioritizes athleticism and potential over college production. It's an understandable approach, but it comes with risks.
Van Ness is the perfect example. He had Pro Bowl potential entering the NFL but lacked elite production and never started a game for Iowa. Two years into his Packers career, he has contributed just seven sacks, still hasn't started a game, and regularly lost snaps to undrafted Brenton Cox Jr.
Will the Packers go for a more proven prospect over a project who needs time? NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah doesn't believe so.
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah has Packers selecting pass-rusher Shemar Stewart in the first round of 2025 NFL Draft
Draft season is officially here. Along with Mel Kiper's first predictions of the offseason, Daniel Jeremiah has also dropped his opening mock draft.
Jeremiah predicts the Packers will select Texas A&M pass-rusher Shemar Stewart at No. 23 overall.
"The Packers love front-seven players from the SEC with outstanding traits. Stewart fits the mold," writes Jeremiah.
There's a lot to like about Stewart's game, and it's easy to see why he is viewed as a first-rounder. He will likely test well at the NFL Scouting Combine and will undoubtedly be on the Packers' radar. Stewart could become a superstar in the NFL.
However, like the Packers' previous two first-round edge-rushers, Rashan Gary and Van Ness, he doesn't enter the NFL with elite college production.
"Just 4.5 sacks in 3 seasons. A lot of 'almost' plays," writes ESPN's Field Yates. "6-foot-6, 285 pounds and some rare physical traits. Powerful and explosive, but it didn't translate to consistent college production."
It would be a classic Packers move. While he could become an instant contributor, there's a good chance Green Bay's plan would be to ease him in behind the current group of Gary, Van Ness, and Kingsley Enagbare.
But that's not what the Packers need. They need a difference-maker who can upgrade their pass rush immediately. Perhaps they also use free agency, but there are only so many snaps to go around.
Green Bay's decision to fire defensive line coach Jason Rebrovich indicates the team likes its current talent at edge-rusher. Gary, Van Ness, Enagbare, and Brenton Cox Jr. will compete for snaps. If you add Stewart and a free agent, someone has to miss out on regular game time.
Stewart might be a home-run pick, but it's easy to see why Packers fans have concerns. Gutekunst spoke about urgency and wanting to win a championship now, and they need to find players who can help make that happen.
Could Stewart make a difference in Year 1? Nobody knows. But based on his lack of college production, it will likely take some time.