The San Francisco 49ers stole the headlines this weekend by trading All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders for *checks notes* a fifth-round pick?
It's a modest return for a player who was one of the league's best dual-threat receivers in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
It also shouldn't be surprising. Samuel's production has declined. He recently turned 29, and the 49ers could no longer justify the $15.83 million cap hit.
The Green Bay Packers find themselves in a similar situation with Jaire Alexander. Following Ian Rapoport's report that the Packers are listening to trade offers, Alexander's departure is inevitable. The issue is that every other team knows this, giving Green Bay limited leverage in negotiations.
Unlike Samuel, Alexander is still playing at an All-Pro level, but he has missed half of the Packers' games over the past four years. He has failed to feature in more than seven contests in three of those four seasons.
Samuel's trade details serve as a harsh reminder for the Packers.
Deebo Samuel trade is a reminder that Packers need to temper expectations for Jaire Alexander deal
Put yourself in the position of a team acquiring Alexander. They must take on the injury risk and his contract, all while knowing the Packers have to move on from him. Why would they part ways with premium draft capital?
Green Bay won't land a high draft pick for Alexander. It's far more realistic that a team offers a Day 3 selection, as Washington did in the Samuel trade. Perhaps Brian Gutekunst can negotiate a conditional pick that improves if Alexander plays a percentage of snaps or games, but that's likely as good as it will get.
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But the Packers should take that deal. Trading Alexander gives them control of where he ends up. If they are forced to release him, Alexander gets that choice, which means he could end up on an NFC rival.
Alexander needs a fresh start elsewhere, and Green Bay needs a reset at cornerback.
The best resolution for both parties is to find a trade partner. But, again, the other 31 teams know this, leaving the Packers with limited leverage. Every team knew the 49ers were open to trading Samuel, which led to a fifth-round pick getting the deal over the line.
Alexander proved he can still play at an All-Pro level, but his injury history could tank the Packers' asking price. The Samuel-to-Washington trade provides a harsh reminder that Green Bay likely won't get a great return.